Written by Graeme on Thursday, June 20th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
The comeback is on! Following on from their 8-1 victory over the Florida Panthers, the Edmonton Oilers racked up another big 5-3 win in Florida to force the series to a Game 6.
You’re really starting to see the Oilers believe in themselves, and this one is looking more and more likely to have a Game 7.
Here are our thoughts:
Scott: This series is turning out to be a good one after the Panthers jumped out to a 3-0 series lead.
The Florida home crowd was quiet after the Oilers opened the scoring which certainly didn’t help the Panthers, some people paid $1000 per seat so that must have been a tough pill to swallow. Hyman scored his first of the finals. McDavid put up another 4 points and even Perry scored his first of the postseason. This game was closer than game 4 and if not for an empty net goal at the end it was a 1 goal game.
Skinner has been much better than expected. Many, myself included, considered him a bit of a liability coming into this series but he has been great and is a huge reason why they are still alive .
I’m avoiding a tip for this game. I just need to see how things go as the momentum has shifted so much that I’m slowly losing confidence in my Panthers pick. They have 2 games to win one game, one in Edmonton the other Florida.
No Bet
Graeme: I said it prior to the 8-1 game; despite being 3-0 down, the Oilers were quite simply the better team in the playoffs. I backed them there, and it worked out.
Things have actually switched a little going into this game though. That last game the metrics were pretty disgusting considering the result. Panthers with a 72 CF% for example, and a 77.9% xG.
So how does that affect the overall stats? Fenwick is a wash. Panthers better Corsi. xGF is very close slightly in favour of Oilers. Notably, PDO has switched dramatically and now the Oilers have the better one at 1.006 but that means it’s really just balanced out.
This makes things a lot closer. Unfortunately, neither team is over 2.00 where there would be value so it makes for no bets on either side.
Personally, I’ll bet Over 5.5 goals myself. Both teams have an xGF of over 3 and both are scoring that amount. The Panthers SCGF is low which is the only real concern.
Oilers to WIN, moneyline is a given and puckline is very tempting, maybe play money on -2.5 as well.
Still looking at props, but the standard options for McDavid and Bouchard are top of the list.
Oilers were the better team in Games 1, 3, 4 and 5. Two stupid clearing passes near their own net cost them one game. When the Oilers find their game and they’re all pitching in, with set plays or collective improv, they use all the ice and shut down the Panthers, make open ice out of Panthers defense and force Bobrovsky to operate alone with busy fast action in his face. Bobrovsky is a very good goalie, but he was never magic; he’s a sprawler for the lower half of the net, and there’s lots of twine available. The Oilers spent all Game 1 sending pucks in low along the ice, and they would have won the game if they’d elevated shots.
The Panthers don’t have the offensive depth the Oilers have, once the Oilers kicked into full team effort on offense. They’re all effective, all fast, making plays, clearing the zone, getting to the O-zone, working the boards and making the essential fast passes, tick-tack-toe and Florida is trying to hold on in reacting. Florida often looks slow and small, because they are.
History shows us when this batch of Panthers get frustrated, they take a LOT of stupid penalties, so starting about half way through this game and in Game 7, the Panthers may also start destroying themselves if they haven’t grown up since last year. Why would they have? In the regular season this year, Florida was basically tied with Anaheim for taking the most penalties in the entire league, at 1,106 penalty minutes. In the playoffs, the Oilers have elite quality specialty teams, while Florida has a BAD powerplay and average penalty killing at best.