Written by Graeme on Wednesday, January 13th, 2016
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A 3-0 night last night which was nice, and a +0.75 unit profit in the 1st period system to put that back into the black.
We had the Islanders in regulation. Since the trade, our thoughts are basically “bet against the Jackets” when we first analyze them and that worked out well yesterday with the Islanders putting in a dominant performance.
We had the Blackhawks to beat the Predators and they went up 3-0. Nashville fought back but couldn’t tie it up thankfully.
We also took Over 4.5 goals in Devils/Blues. As Scott said yesterday – if there’s a line like that in the NHL you probably have to take it. It’s hard to think of a game where you wouldn’t take that.
Some other interesting games. A Domi hat trick won the game for the Coyotes as they hosted Edmonton. The Avs were completely dominated by the Lightning. Buffalo had a massive 1st period against the Wild and that was all she wrote for that game. And the Penguins are back to being mediocre. Good stuff.
Tonight there are only 4 games. Normally we’d go with the Leafs here blindly – but the odds are poor, and JVR being out is going to be very interesting. So we’ll skip that one and see how they play without him.
Bruins vs Flyers Betting Tips:
Gostisbehere is out for the Flyers still. This is a big game for both teams obviously and the Bruins are making some line changes as they try to get things going again after a poor few weeks.
Despite their poor form at the moment I’m going to take Bruins to win. They’ve been inconsistent and games between these two are always tight but I think the Bruins can get the win here. Their offense is usually very solid on the road.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: -115 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Panthers vs Flames Betting Tips:
The big question is whether or not the Panthers can bounce back. We do like the Panthers to win but it can be hard to pick yourself up after a winning streak like that comes to an end.
It’s a big game that both teams will want to win. The Flames are solid at home when it comes to scoring but also leak goals like crazy. Panthers have a ridiculous record on the road of course with just 2.05 GAA but I’m just not convinced the Panthers can pick themselves up fully and want to wait and see.
Over 5 goals.
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: -115 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
1st Period Betting System:
(Experimental system – details)
Record: 3-5, +0.45u.
Today: Ducks to win 1st period. 2.70 odds. Panthers to win 1st period. 3.00 odds. Both available at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
I’m looking on sportsinteraction and i get no where close to those 1st period bets. I am looking at both first period win, and first period moneyline. The ML on Ducks is 1.7 and on panthers is 1.87. Why is there such a big difference between books? Or am i betting on the wrong thing?
You’re looking at “First Period MoneyLine”. There if you bet the Panthers for example – if the score is tied at the end of the 1st period it’s a push so you get your bet back.
Bet them to win the period under “First Period”. It says Florida -0.5. Sometimes they will list it as “First Period Three-Way” instead as well.
Congrats going 3-0! I cheered for you guys when I saw Chi win the 1stP with less than a minute;
All the stats favour FLA to win the 1st: Even with Ekblad out, 7/8
D men are plus; On the flip side, 2/8 Cal D men are on the plus; FLA has 2 solid goaltenders; Ramo is respectable at 2.60GA;
In 41gms, FLA have 19GA vs 35GA for Cal in the 1stP
Ott/Ana: these stats favour Ana; Gibson is 1.84 GA and Anderson is 2.50GA; In 40+gms, Ott has 37GA & Ana 21GA in the 1stP but
7/8 D men on Ana are minus; Ott has 4/4 D men on the plus; fingers crossed for Ana;
Bos/Phi
Should be a physical game; both teams rank 2nd & 5th in PIM; Bos PP is 22% on the road and Phil PK is 78% at home; Gostisbehere’s absence at +5 will help Bos & I think they have a better chance against Mason; Philly is winning but Bos will make a game of it;
Good luck tonight!
Not a good night for me: Pens didn’t bring it and Avs had nothing in the tank.
G&S, like your picks today. I’m going to add the following:
TML -1.5 – CBJ are on b2b and their goalies are getting shelled.
TML -.5 1st per – see above. GREAT value.
TML/CBJ – o1.5 1st per – see above
Cats ML 2U – I like them to get back on track and Hiller is in goal for Flames and he is one of the worst goalies in the league with 3.76 GAA
Cats o2.5 – Hiller is in goal and Cats have no problem scoring against a good goalie.
Cats/Flames – O1.5 1st per. Both teams will have high compete and will find the back of the net in the first.
Sens/Ducks O5 – battle of the Andersons. Worst case a push.
good luck boys
Figures, the one time i decide to go for the OT with the Isles (feels like they always drag the game to OT/lose when they’re the clear favorites to win) they end up winning, although the Jackets look like a more beaten team than anybody right now so i guess it made sense.
Good night overall though as the Isles game had over 5.5 goals, Arizona came back to tie it for the OT, Hawks won and ended up going with my gut with the Bolts. Wish every night was like this.
Anyway, i see where you’re coming from with the B’s pick, as i also think the B’s will have good fight in them tonight. I had OT on the B’s – Rangers game but NYR’s determination to win the game was just enough for the late gwg which was heartbreaking for me. I feel pretty good about OT this time around too though. Flyers are enjoying the game right now and don’t have any pressure to win but at the same time Boston wants it a bit more and they’re always solid on the road. I wouldn’t count on Boston OT win though, as i think the Flyers will end up winning it, but that doesn’t make a difference on my bet anyway.
Plus, when teams have stretches of tight games like Boston is having right now, OT loss against sens & near OT against rangers, the trend usually continues until they manage to grind out a couple of wins.
Im all for the Maple Leafs, and i bet on them this morning and got 2.15 odds which are pretty nice. If the Hawks are the team to bet right now, so are the Jackets – just against them. I don’t know how they’ll turn it around in 1 night after 3 terrible games in a row.
Also feel pretty good about the Flames. They’ve been average for the past week or so but at the same time this gotta feel like a must W for them after losing the last 2 & both were at home. They got their offense going finally against Sharks and i think even though Florida lost they still see them as a big time opponent because they’re aware of that big winning streak. Meanwhile the Panthers haven’t really had that much of a jump offensively in the past 3 games. They’ve got the lead early and then been quiet for the last 2 periods. As i see the Flames fighting it tonight to the end i think they can outscore Florida. Loss of Ekblad is also huge (that’s basically why the W streak ended).
I think there’s a pretty good chance for OT on Ottawa-Anaheim game as well, but for some reason im fearing a late Ducks gwg.
Good luck !
Lol, all but the Maple leafs game went exactly as predicted