Written by Graeme on Sunday, November 12th, 2023
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A disappointing night yesterday.
The Bruins got that early goal and then man – just took their foot off the pedal for most of the game it seemed. Habs hit them with a one-two punch to wake them up at the beginning of the 3rd, and while they were able to tie it up they couldn’t pull the win off in regulation.
Canucks had a good battle against the Leafs but couldn’t get the job done. One of those where it sucks but you know what the Leafs are capable of, and sometimes they’re actually able to pull it off.
Tampa were just a complete disaster. Just a horrific performance by them for the entire 60 minutes. Very frustrating when a team doesn’t show up like that.
Let’s see what we have today if anything: Quick write-ups due to time constraints.
Panthers vs Blackhawks:
If there was a play here, it’d be the Panthers -1.5. It’s possible, but it’s very close. Their SCGF/60 isn’t that hot yet. I’d say it’s about a coinflip, which is pretty much exactly what the odds are. No play.
Wild vs Stars:
Stars being on the B2B is a bit of a concern. They’ll likely start Oettinger which is a bonus. I’ll pass. Looking at the data, I’d price the Stars at about the same as the sportsbooks.
Rangers vs Jackets:
Rangers coming in hot. Jackets, not. I like the Rangers here, but if it’s a play it’s a handicap play.
Looking at the metrics for that, it’s not overwhelmingly slow. I’d like to see a higher xGF/60 on the Rangers and their CF/60 and FF/60 are poor too. They’re just not creating the chances. In saying that, the Jackets allow a fair bit more chances.
It’s a marginal play. If I had a bit more time today I’d do a deep dive into this one to se if it’s worth it or not. I feel like it’s one where I like it, but it’s probably 0EV. Can’t figure out yet if Rangers are going to be a goalie dependent team or not. I’ll pass.
Canadiens vs Canucks:
Easy pass for me with both teams B2B, Canucks run snapped. By the metrics, its a Canucks win. DeSmith in net too.
Ducks vs Sharks:
Nothing here. Ducks SHOULD take it. That Sharks slight surgence though has me waiting to see if it was just a blip and they’re going to play competitive, or if they’re going to go back to playing like Tampa did last night.
I’ll probably personally play the Rangesr -1.5 and the Ducks in reg, but they’re a bit off from advising.
Rangers 5.5 over and -1.5
Florida 5.5 over and -1.5
Wanted to take Dallas yesterday, especially if it was going to be Oettinger vs Gustavsson here. But we might get Fleury instead. Not a fan of his either but he’s at least been serviceable for now. And Dallas has climbed and I thought the -110 it opened was already a little too high. I do like Stars chances if Gustavsson starts for Wild though. Won’t play it at the price though.
Next was Blue Jackets vs the Rangers. This opened CBJ +225 and I leaned that way. Man people would never guess I’m a Rangers fan the amount I’m willing to bet against them if the price is right. I learned early you gotta be willing to separate the two though. However, when looking at my power rankings and recent Blue Jackets struggles the line wasn’t too crazy. Today it’s also dropped to CBJ +195 and now I can just pass on it. If I’m speaking fairly though, a lot of the Rangers stats compared to their record screams they are overachieving to me right now. And Quick has to regress at some point right?
So the two value plays that I think are still there are Montreal and San Jose. I’m not eager to bet either team and don’t envision wins, so this is strictly on the value of the pricing. I expected the lines to get higher on both plays but so far they’ve stayed where they’re at. I’m in no rush to bet them and if I do it’ll be cuz the lines climbed up and it’ll be quarter unit max.
Montreal is currently +145 at home and San Jose +165 on the road vs Anaheim. If they climb I’ll make small plays with low expectations. If they stay where they’re at or go the other way I’ll pass. I’m hoping to pass. Please don’t make me bet these games.
Goal Scorers
Also small plays here. Low expectations. Even lower than usual.
Minnesota Marcus Johansson +360
Minnesota Eriksson Ek +210
going against Oettinger not ideal but could have some value.
I wanted to highlight some Dallas potential scorers but I feel better about them if Gustavsson starts not Fleury. Also there’s a bigger selection based on the goals Gustavsson has conceded so all the options can’t come thru. One long shot I’ll try to play if Gustavsson does start is Hesikanen at +500. It is still a super long shot though and probably won’t cash.
Dallas OVER team total 2.5 -170 if Gustavsson starts for Wild. Half unit. Probably won’t pair that with anything unless maybe a ridiculous SJ Under like 4.5 or something bumps it. But haven’t put any real thought into it. Just thinking on the fly here.
also bad job by me when picking tampa bay yesterday and not noticing Kucherov was out with an illness. I’m debating whether knowing it would have kept me personally from taking the plus money or not. I still may have made the play.
But Kucherov is one player who is key. Besides his 11 goals, he has 12 assists and is a legit factor to the offense and power play getting going. He floats he adlibs, he never stays still, gets everyone involved and scores at a high clip on his own. Looking at the score and the parts of the game I watched (i was jumping around from game to game) they clearly missed him and it showed. I didn’t notice he was out until the game broadcast mentioned it and what I was watching from Tampa began to make a little more sense. Bad job by me there.