Written by Graeme on Wednesday, November 13th, 2024
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Alrighty – after a brief break, I am back and I have no more trips planned until the end of February, when I head to Columbus for their Stadium Series game against the Red Wings. Pretty pumped for that.
I was in Fort Worth, Texas this weekend for that terrible Cowboys game. Still a fun time and man, I love that stadium, but holy crap what an awful game. It was an interesting trip, because there was a huge party atmosphere there due to the election. So many people with jerseys on with the player name “TRUMP” and the number “47”. It certainly made for a unique experience.
It’s been a pretty good run for me so far, I believe it’s 13-2 for +9.92u. I’ve been fortunate enough to avoid any real bad variance in that period. Believe me – it’s not sustainable.
Let’s see what we’ve got for tonight:
Penguins vs Red Wings:
The Penguins coming in off that Stars obliteration. Detroit also coming in off a couple of rough results. Neither team really backable nor am I seeing anything in this game.
Looking at the metrics – Pens with a solid edge in CF & FF %. Scoring slightly less, creating a lot more. Conceding more and a higher xGA. Looks like a very high variance game where Pens have the edge.
Capitals vs Leafs:
Caps coming in off that demolition job on the Blues. Leafs were at home last night and got stonewalled by the Sens. They have been generally playing solid so far this season.
It looks like a decent spot to back the Caps – but let’s see what the metrics say as I really need the data to back this up convincingly. Always wary betting against a team like the Leafs.
CF% the same, very very slight edge in FF% Caps scoring more and creating an absolute ton. Leafs scoring slightly less than they should although prior to last night we were seeing them live up to expectations more.
So the issue is this Leafs xGA/60 of 2.5 and GA/60 of 2.48. That’s a sticking point because if we back the Caps, we need to rely on their ability to score. So have to compare the defensive metrics of others they have played to see if we can back that.
Unfortunately, the data is a bit inconclusive. They haven’t played a lot of teams with metrics like that. The Canes are floating there with their GA/60 and Washington only got 2 past them.
I strongly lean Washington, but I need the data to back me up and it’s just not doing that. (It’s not opposing it either). I think at best I can say it’s a 0EV play.
Utah vs Hurricanes:
Utah come stumbling home after a big loss to the Preds. The Canes bounced back after their winning run ended with a solid win over Vegas.
A concern is Utah and their very low xGA/60 of 2.52, while the Canes are weak there with 2.98. Utah thankfully aren’t scoring well, and their goaltending lets them down. Similar deal with the Leafs/Capitals – need to try and look for teams with similar data for the Canes.
Unfortunately it’s similar – they haven’t really faced teams with a similar season long xGA. If we play around with the data a bit – for example go with teams performances since the 22nd, we can squeak the Bruins and Knights in a couple of spots below Utah in the xGA table and they lit them up fine.
So I think – especially with Vejmelka confirmed – there’s enough here to take Canes in Regulation. One of those picks where I’m not feeling super good about it – my spidey-sense is tingling, but I think a loss here would primarily be down to bad variance, instead of the wrong pick.
Ontario: 1.909 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.909 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -120 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.909 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/13 8:00:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avs vs Kings:
Not much jumping out for me here. The Kings GA/xGA is a standout for them actually. Avs offense is performing very well over the last 10, but this could prove tricky for them. I’m not feeling good enough to back it – but at a glance, there might be some value on the LA Kings.
Ducks vs Knights:
Eh I am completely fine not backing the Knights on the road. By the metrics it’s not really a play anyway. Ducks have a better xGF/60 and if they could score – they could actually win this one. Obvious statement I know. But there’s not enough data points to support that and there is no indication their offense is seeing any positive regression any time soon.
Only 1 out of 4 yesterday. Going for 4 goal scorers today also.
M. Knies for Mapel Leafs A. Beauvillier for Penguins, W. Foegele for Kings and P. Dorofeyev for Knight to score.
I also like Mapel Leafs and Kings to win. Nylander could score today but no value
Closest play I considered today was Colorado, but I feel the current price at about -140 is slightly too high. I tried to make a case that with Lehkonen back and already producing maybe the line was ok. But Colorado still missing some depth players if that top line and power play doesn’t produce.
In fact all today’s favorites felt like they were priced on the high side. But no value and a lot of issues with each one of the underdogs. Maybe not the Kings, as far as issues go, but I don’t like the spot. Vegas was the only one that opened where I projected at -190. And immediately have been bet up to about -230 range.
So something would have to jump out in the data on one of these games. And I haven’t been able to identify anything yet.
Couple injury reports to monitor.
Toronto Matthews was eligible to come off IR yesterday, but doesn’t appear to be ready yet. I would think he misses this game as well, but you might get some official confirmation later today.
Carolina Jarvis was a late scratch vs Vegas and I haven’t seen an update yet. Carolina was still able to roll as they were up 4-0 after 2 periods in Vegas. Freddy appears to still be out as well. Kochetkov has been fine but Id be wary if they were to give Spencer Martin a spot start. So far he’s only played once and conceded 5 in the loss to Colorado. Carolina is off until Saturday and play a back to back over the weekend, so they “should” stick with Kochetkov here.
Vegas Mark Stone has missed the last two games I believe. The indication was that he might be ready to return for their two game road trip, but I’ve yet to see anything concrete.
Goal Scorer Props I’m playing
Detroit DeBrincat
Pittsburgh Rust
Carolina Aho
Los Angeles Kempe
Colorado MacKinnon
Carolina Burns
I might do a Raymond and Crosby same game parlay. Raymond “should” score soon. He hasn’t gotten many shots on goal. But had 4 last game. And may not need many vs the Penguins goaltending. Of course with low volume shooters, the 4 shots could be an outlier. And they may disappear again for the next three games. Crosby might look to set the tone and get on the score sheet after they were blitzed in the first period by Dallas.
With Los Angeles I struggled between Kempe and Fiala ultimately landing on Kempe. Fiala is going at about +240 currently so they could be swapped. I did a same game parlay with both at about +800 vs Nashville maybe a week ago that hit. I didn’t want to go back to the well with that and it was a little bit lucky as Kempe cashed it via empty net.
Carolina Burns is a stretch. And I probably should have left off. But seeing how he’s still scoreless I figured Utah would be just the type of team that wouldn’t surprise me if he scored. In hindsight I probably should have just went with Gostisbehere if I wanted to take a defenseman.
Colorado Mittelstadt was in that he’s due to score soon range. So it wouldn’t shock me if he scored as well. He started off the season scoring in 4 of the Avs first 5 games. But has only scored in 2 of the last 11 since. At the same time he has never reached 20 goals yet in a season, so I was unsure of how long the drought could continue.
Detroit DeBrincat +200
Pittsburgh Rust +175
Carolina Aho +155
Los Angeles Kempe +210
Colorado MacKinnon +115
Carolina Burns +600
SGP Raymond and Crosby +686
Thx for your analysis, but kings will win!!!! I say 4-2. Lets see, u never know with the NHL, the bottom team can win against the top team, NHL is hard to predict. Good luck with your picks 🤑
Good luck to you as well man. I like reading your goal scorer selections so hopefully you continue to post them.
First of all thx again Graeme and Scott for your amazing job as usual.
It’s great that we have our own political problems here in Germany, so I don’t must anything say about the US election.
Last year all three meetings between the Pens and the Red Wings went over. First meeting this year went over too. By knowing that every run will end someday, I’ll stay on that train…
You’re welcome mate. And it feels like everywhere around the world has its own political problems. Canada is an absolute disaster. It all just makes the beer taste better 🙂
The lack of goals for both teams and a really low xGF/60 for the Wings would put me off that – although the Pens xGA/60 and GA/60 miiight just balance that out enough. Good luck.
Not seeing anything inspiring a pick today. Some leans look obvious but I’m taking the day off.
Question: I’ve wondered for several years now if NHL players and/or teams consider there to be a “weekend” phase of the week. It would seem like Thursday through Sunday would be when the fans are paying peak attention, and players would match that, so that’s not it. Growing up and in the minors, the calendar Friday, Saturday, Sunday days are peak activity. It’s locked in player DNA. The NHL “player” weekend, when rest is important and motivation possibly lowest, would then become Tuesday and Wednesday. As a better, I’ve had pretty good results from Monday bets, but for whatever reason, Wednesday bets often get bad results and Tuesday also seems to attract bad results. Anyone else spot that pattern or think it could be true? It’s probably much less consistent in the final playoff race month, and maybe not in October, but after the regular season gets settled in for the long haul, the pattern shows up.
Hello folks. Ive been follwoing you for years, not really posting much back, but i love your analyse, it help me a lot with my research. If i only could be a little more patient i think i could do alot better. Much of the betting of course is only for entertainment.
I work a lot of boring nightshifts here in Norway, so i watch almost 3 games per shift. So i see a lot and feel like i know a lot of the NHL.
Done pretty well this year, much thanks to you guys.
Tonight is a tough to bet on any outfold, but ive placed a Double with pens O2,5 combined with Caps ML.Mostly due to Leafs completly off offense yesterday, didnt like the way they entered the zone, and they seemed of rythm with everything.
2.46 in odds.
GL.
Good to have you on here mate. Patience is the name of the game in NHL, with how tough the variance can be. Look at last night with the Caps/Canes games for example. Being patient and understanding variance etc is huge. And that’s a pretty sweet deal with the night shift 🙂