Written by Graeme on Tuesday, November 14th, 2023
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No plays yesterday.
Oilers got the win, and created some solid chances in doing so as expected. The city of Edmonton is likely already planning the parade.
The Avs started slow. VERY slow. An xG of just 0.8 at the end of the 1st. But they managed to get going, and eventually thumped the Seattle Kraken.
9 game slate today.
Let’s rock it:
Sabres vs Bruins:
Boston come in off that Habs loss. They haven’t lost much this season but they’re not exactly a super strong bounce back team so far. Buffalo got destroyed by the Penguins last time out.
Not really considering Buffalo here at all so it would be Bruins in regulation most likely. Bruins goaltending still helping them massively. So it’s primarily a case of looking at other teams reliant on strong goaltending, and if Buffalo have struggled against them. Looking at the top 10 for GA/60, you have Penguins and Rangers in there. Aaaand that’s about it for who Buffalo have played and they didn’t perform well in either.
If we look at teams with a similar XGA/60 to the Bruins but worse goaltending, Buffalo score against them. So it’s a case of if taking Boston, we’re reliant on their goaltending and the little data showing that can be a difference maker against Buffalo.
I’m very on the fence on this one. Like I pretty much feel it’s a coinflip. And I’m seeing 2.20 odds on average. So I guess that makes it a play.
Not one I’m in love with, but it does feel like it has some value.
Bruins in Regulation
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +107 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/14 12:50:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Flames:
The Habs come in off that loss to the Canucks. Despite a fair amount of tight games and overtime wins, they haven’t won in regulation since the 23rd. They only have 2 regulation wins all season.
Calgary just got thumped by the Sens as their offense struggled for the first time in a few games.
Looking at the metrics, I guess defensively Flames have the advantage but their offense concerns me. No play.for me. I will say that the Sens result was one of their lowest xGs of the season so hopefully they produce more toinght.
Jackets vs Penguins:
I am fine passing on this game. I’m not quite ready to buy into the Penguins, and the Jackets are all over the place. Pens -1.5 has credibility here based on the data.
By the data, this should be a convincing win for the Pens.
Capitals vs Knights:
Happy to pass on this one. Going to be a very good test for the Caps and will be helpful in regard to betting them going forward.
Predators vs Ducks:
Preds come in on a brutal run. Ducks had a run stopped but then got the nice win over the Sharks. They continue to not get any respect at sportsbooks.
I was thinking this would be a good play on the Ducks, but looking at the metrics that’s not the case at all. Yeah the goals metrics are for the Ducks, but that’s about it. Ducks defensive metrics much poorer overall, lower xGF & SCGF. That’s a shame as I was hoping to back them tonight. Pass.
Stars vs Coyotes:
Dallas coming in off that big win over Minnesota. Their metrics are generally on point with Oettinger being a big factor for them overall although he has been conceding quite a few more lately . Arizona have some mental stats.
Stars in regulation odds are quite nice although reliant on goaltending against this explosive offense. This one is quite tricky as I also lean on the over as well.
But even if the Coyotes get the goals, it looks like Dallas can outscore them.
Stars in Regulation if Oettinger is in net
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -140 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/14 12:50:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Devils:
Jets succumbed to the Stars on the 11th to stop a little run. Devils lost two in a row against the Caps and Avs.
Not seeing too much here. While the Jets offense have a good GF/60 its more than they should be doing. Devils with offense and defense make it high variance. No play.
Blus vs Lightning:
Blues come in off that big Avs win. Tampa coming in off that abslutely dumpster fire of a game against the Canes. I’m fine passing on anything involving Tampa after that one.
Sharks vs Panthers:
Florida SHOULD win. It’d have to be -1.5 which I am not a fan of on the road. They’ll probably do it although their SCGF/60 is a tad concerning. No play.
“The city of Edmonton is likely already planning the parade.” LOL