Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 14th, 2024
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An 0-1 night last night, and while I don’t want to use it as an excuse, it did feel like variance reared its ugly head.
All looked good for the Canes last night, especially with Kochetkov in. They wracked up an xGF of 6.01, had 50 shots – and lost 4-1. I wouldn’t even put it all down to the goalie – their shooting was just OFF last night. When you fire the puck straight at the goalies chest time and time again? Yeah you ain’t gonna score.
Thankfully I at least didn’t go 0-2, as I was very tempted by that Caps play and stayed away purely due to inconclusive data. Washington WERE able to score despite the Leafs defensive metrics, but it meant nothing as the Leafs came back and got a big W.
It’s Thursday, let’s get it! Husker Du! (Or whatever random noise it is BeardMeetsFood makes at the start of his videos)
Panthers vs Devils:
Just played, fine with passing on it.
Senators vs Flyers:
Sens coming in off that big Leafs road win, but they are all over the place and too inconsistent to back confidently. Flyers being competitive last few games too.
By the data – Sens CF & FF % a lot better. Scoring more, conceding less, xG backs all that up as well as SCG. Basically yeah this should be a solid enough win for the Sens.
But like I said – feel it hard to back them right now, especially in what would have to be in regulation. Plus the Flyers showing some steam, Michkov looking like he can give the team a lift etc – yeah I shall pass.
I should note by the metrics, it’s where an empty netter may be a factor. Philly have scored 4 and conceded 5 in the 9 games they have played with an empty net, while Ottawa playing against an empty net 4 times have scored twice and conceded once. So that at least leans towards Ottawa if it comes to that.
Rangers vs Sharks:
Rangers coming in off that Jets loss but they have been good on the bounce back. Sharks not been too bad over the last couple of weeks. I’d have to take Rangers -2.5 and that’s not gonna happen. Data doesn’t come close to supporting it, especially with the Rangers poor defensive metrics.
Lightning vs Jets:
They played recently, and I’m happy to pass on this one anyway. Just looks like an iffy spot for Winnipeg. Last game went over big time but not seeing enough in the data to support that.
Sabres vs Blues:
Buffalo come in after that loss to the Habs. Blues on a three game losing streak. This would be close to an automatic pick except for the Sabres xGF/60. It’s very low even if their offense is overperforming. Their Corsi is kind of flatlining at the moment, and I’m wary of their ability to create the chances here.
Stars vs Bruins:
These two played on the 24th at the TD Garden, and the Stars ran out 5-2 winners there. Dallas coming in off that big win over the Penguins. Not a fan of Dallas here. Bruins have a solid 3.4 xGF/60 while the Stars have a bad xGA/60 of 3.17. Bruins offense should be scoring more and has me a bit concerned they are going to get a fair amount of chances to do so here.
Wild vs Canadiens:
Wild coming in off the loss to the Hawks. The Habs pulled the W outta nowhere against the Sabres.
Wild -1.5 is very close to a play. The GF stats support it. xG is a bit iffy with the Wilds xGF/60, and Corsi & Fenwick could be a bit better. Basically it looks to be about 50/50 chance and the bookies have the odds at exactly that.
Oilers vs Predators:
Both teams feel very erratic at the moment. The data leans Oilers but not enough to take them in regulation.
Kraken vs Blackhawks:
Both teams coming in on wins. I was really hoping the data would support a Kraken regulation win here because that’s what I like. But it odes not. Most of the data actually leans the other way towards a Hawks win.
Canucks vs Islanders:
The Canucks hosted both Alberta teams and were able to rebound off their Oilers loss, with a win against Calgary.
Islanders been performing quite solid over their last 4. Not seeing enough in the data to support a Canucks regulation win. Like – it’s pretty close, but just not a play.
Unfortunately, no plays today.
I got 2 out of 4 goal scorers yesterday. Also the baby face nylander found the net but they lost 4-2.
Today I have 4 goalscorers more.
W. Cuylle for Rangers, S. Bennett for Phanters, G. Nyquist for Predators and B. Nelson for Islanders
Good luck
Haven’t had time to look through more than two games and nothing jumped out in them. Closest play I was gonna make was on Florida when it was at -137. I wanted to take Tampa but I anticipated public hype being on the Jets due to their start. However the lines moved even more so on the Tampa side so I’m not interested in laying -142 on them currently. Even though my first impression was Tampa Bay wins I don’t see the value. It’s borderline becoming a value play on Jets if it moves any further in my opinion.
So just off the top I see Rangers winning comfortably and Florida and Tampa winning but I don’t see value at the current prices on any of them. So probably no plays for me in that regard.
Goal Scorers I’m playing today. This was half assed and I only looked at two games but four that I’ve played are
Rangers
Kreider +155
Zibanejad +185
Ottawa
Giroux +260
Brady Tkachuk +145
For Rangers it was between Kreider and Panarin. After Rangers lost to Jets I think they take this game somewhat seriously. So I don’t think the stars mail it in. Mika should be a leave off because he’s extremely streaky and it’s better to wait for him to actually get going. Rather than try and predict when that will be. But seeing how he’s been scoreless last 8 games and hasn’t scored on the Power Play yet this year, might be worth a shot on zibanejad here.
Most of his damage is done on the Power Play. Rangers have scored a PP goal in 5 of last 6. Sharks have done a better job recently of taking less penalties, but still have more power plays against than for. Trocheck was an option but I’ll pass on him and Fox for that matter. Wouldn’t be surprised if one of them scores soon though. I might talk myself into taking a shot on Fox +600. But I doubt it comes through.
For Ottawa I considered Batherson, but I think Brady is slightly more reliable. Though they could be swapped. Giroux I’ve been considering last game or two, so it’s not just the fact he’s playing Philly. Though that could provide a little extra motivation. At this point I don’t know how much he cares especially with the game in Ottawa.
Half Assed Goal Scorer Props recap
Rangers
Kreider +155
Zibanejad +185
Fox +600
Ottawa
Brady Tkachuk +145
Giroux +260
Fuck that Fox one is so dumb. It should probably just be Kreider and Brady Tkachuk. But that’s probably something I’ll learn and try and get better at as I go along.