Written by Graeme on Friday, November 15th, 2024
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No plays yesterday. Looking back at it, Sens vs Flyers was tight as expected. Good to see Rangers not coming close to the -2.5 with the data not supporting it at all. And generally happy that Wild -1.5 came in because that was the closest to a play for me.
Three games went to overtime yesterday and McDavid recorded 1000 career points which is impressive. To be the 4th fastest in this generation of hockey is very impressive, with the ones ahead of him being Yzerman, Lemieux and Gretzky.
Let’s look at the five games taking place today. Tips may be a bit late Saturday and Sunday as I am debating staying up for both Tyson vs Paul, and UFC. I watch boxing and MMA religiously, but I am an early bird and prefer to be in my bed by 9pm then watch them in the morning. The idea of staying up that late is daunting, but I have a few mates wanting to get together for them so we’ll see. But just a heads up if Sat & Sun tips aren’t up by noon.
Speaking of – I will warn you I am sleep deprived today. If anything is messed up in my analysis, that is why.
Blue Jackets vs Penguins:
Jackets come in on a bad run. Pens are just all over the place at the moment. By the data – very slight edge to the Jackets actually, and they are dogs very slightly.
It’s so close but 2% better in CF% and FF%. Scoring more, conceding a bit more. Creating more, slightly higher xGA. It’s difficult to back a team on a drought but it has to end sometime. They have been better at home this season.
Both teams play tomorrow as well which is a factor. It’s tough to call anything goalie dependent in this one. The concern is looking at teams with similar metrics to the Penguins like the Kraken and Sharks, Jackets weren’t able to do the job agaisnt them. Oh and the Ducks obviously.
I’d probably flip the odds a bit actually here.
Damn. Jackets are soooo close to a play. I just can’t decide if going back to home is enough to make up for their performances against the Ducks and Sharks.
I’m going to go out on a limb with this one. It still feels risky, but it just taps that “kicking myself tomorrow if I don’t back it” factor. The over has potential too in this game.
Jackets incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bovada
USA: +110 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/15 8:03:15 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Predators:
It’s a close one here which the bookies have set it as – with Predators small favourites. I’d agre with those odds, and don’t see a b et here.
Utah vs Knights:
These two played recently, with the Knights winning 4-3 in OT. I remember that one as Utah were solid dogs and I saw a lot of value in them. Not really seeing that here. Happy to pass on the Knights completely though when on the road.
Avs vs Capitals:
Avs coming in off the win over the Kings. They are on a three game winning streak. Capitals coming in off that tough Leafs loss. A lot of the metrics are close. Caps still scoring an absolute boat load and creating the same amount which is huge.
With the scoring ability of both teams, this definitely makes the over/under tempting. If it was 6 I’d be on it for sure. 6.5 is a tad trickier. As on paper it does look like it could be a 4-3 type of game. But at 1.80 odds for it, I just don’t think there’s enough value for it. It’s close to a play though.
Ducks vs Red Wings:
Wings are 2nd biggest favourites of the day here. By the data – eh, not sure how true that is. The Ducks biggest issue is goals conceded but the Red Wings offense is petering out a good bit right now. Ducks haven’t played any teams with similar xGF recently. Fowler and Fabbri out, and McTavish possibly out too. Looking at individual player metrics, McTavish is the biggest loss there as he has the third highest xGF/60 of the Ducks.
Honestly, I think part of me is looking for an excuse to avoid this one. Having the Jackets pick, which I feel is risky, comes into play here as I’m hesitant to have two risky picks backing teams like the Jackets and Wings.
I’d say take either the Jackets or the Ducks today – but ONLY if Husso is in net for the Wings. I’ll stick with the Jackets play. If McTavish is back, that makes the Ducks more appealing and I’ll probably slip a bet on them if it’s both McT & Husso in our favour. 2.25 for that isn’t too shabby.
S. Monahan for Blue jackets
I. Barbashev for Knights
M. Coronato for Flames
A. Coop for Red wings
All to score
Good luck
I can’t believe my bad luck last night. I had a huge acca in, where I hit on all the NHL games, but I also had Mavs to beat the Jazz, which they somehow managed to mess up. Those extra 6 grand woulda been juicy. Ah wel. Betting on the NBA has become more of a lottery nowadays. What’s even the point of the regular season when top 10 of 15 make play-ins/playoffs?
Flames vs Predators
Flames doing okay at home (5-0-3), while the Preds are terrible away (1-3-3). Gonna go with Flames Incl OT/SO
Avs vs Caps
I love my Avs, but the way the Caps are scoring these days it’s hard to bet against them. The over sounds very appealing. Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Just a quick observation when trying to handicap and predict the lines, I made Colorado a -130 favorite. But saw they opened -170. I thought maybe people had hopped off the Washington bandwagon and it was time for me to start buying them again as underdogs, like I did early in the season.
However I noticed Colorado activated Drouin and Wood off IR and they could possibly play in this game. This will help with their depth. But the bigger piece I noticed is Nichuskin is eligible to be reinstated from his suspension. Colorado said they planned on playing him as soon as he was eligible to do so, and I think he’s been practicing with the team for awhile. This will give Avs a solid second line as I think he’s put up 152 points in 162 games over the last three seasons for them. Could also be a nice jolt in front of the weekend home crowd. Just wanted to post incase people weren’t aware.
Though maybe it takes a little bit to integrate all three back into the lineup. So I won’t have a play on this game in particular, but I did take a Division Winner Future on Avs at +850. They could easily catch and surpass both Minnesota and Dallas making that price go down. Also Jets could eventually go cold after such a hot start to their season. As a long shot play I see value at +850 especially if they go on a run, as Avs are known to do.
I considered the OVER in the Pittsburgh vs Columbus game at -125 on 6.5. But I wanna see how Jarry performs. This is just his fourth game and first since October 16. He hasn’t been good but maybe he’s figured it out.
CBJ
Monahan +210
don’t like it as much with Jarry starting but I’ll still roll with it.
There’s so many Pittsburgh players to pick with Merzlikins starting. I considered Rust and Crosby and think they could be good for one. However I can’t stop myself from thinking Karlsson can score here. So I’m going to be taking Rakell, and Karlsson. Crosby is probably the best option at +150. I was gonna bet Letang at +600 because I couldn’t decide between him and Karlsson. But noticed he’s out with an illness.
Pittsburgh
Rakell +210
Karlsson +550
Colorado Mackinnon +115
Makar +360 was intriguing but didn’t wanna take both. Felt Mac was a bit safer.
Calgary Sharangovich +260
contemplated Coleman for calgary and Forsberg for Nashville as well. But wanted to try and narrow down the amount of plays.