Written by Scott on Tuesday, November 19th, 2024
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6 games yesterday and we had 1 tip. Went with over 6.5 in the Avalanche vs Flyers game but this hit 5 when the Avs won 3-2.
The Habs beat the Oilers 3-0, Ovechkin scored twice when the Caps beat Utah 6-2 but Ovie left the game after a knee on knee collision.
The Ducks beat the Stars 4-2 snapping the Stars win streak at 3 games. The Jackets beat the Bruins 5-1 which was the Bruins 3rd straight loss and the Sharks beat the Wings 5-4 in OT with Celebrini scoring his first career OT goal.
We have 7 games tonight.
Oilers vs Senators
Both teams come into this game on 2 game losing skids.
The Oilers played last night and got shutout by the Habs.
The Sens have better Corsi for numbers but the Oilers are better in CA. The shots for and against and close as are GF and GA with them tied in GF. Even the expected goals numbers are close.
On the road the Oilers are 5-3-1 and the Sens at home are 5-2-1. Just too close for me.
Lightning vs Penguins
The Lightning have managed to be a strong team despite losing their captain and longtime star Stamkos in the off-season. They’re in 3rd in the Atlantic and 6th in GPG and 10th in GAPG.
The Pens have had mixed results so far. They are in 7th in the Metro and 22nd in GPG and 32nd in GAPG.
The Pens have better Corsi and Fenwick for numbers, better numbers in shots for and against and they are scoring more than expected where the Bolts are scoring less than expected.
The data has me off of this game.
Wild vs Blues
The Wild have had a great season so far and it would be more in the headlines if not for the Jets and their start. The Wild are 11-3-3 and tied for 1st in GAPG.
Looking at the data and the Wild lead them in all categories.
The Wild on the road have also been good going 7-1-2 and the Blues at home are 4-5-0.
All signs point to a Wild win and it would have to be in regulation and I’m ok with that.
Wild win in regulation
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/19 9:07:07 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Jets
This is going to be a great game.
The Panthers are 8-2 in last 10, 5th in GPG, 12th in shots and 15th in GAPG. On the road they have gone 6-2-0.
The Jets are 7-3-0 in last 10, 2nd in GPG, 8th in shots and 4th in GAPG. At home they have gone 8-1-0.
These teams played each other on Saturday and it was the Panthers winning that 5-0. The sportsbooks have this as a coin flip and I agree so I am avoiding this game.
Ducks vs Blackhawks
The Ducks played, and won yesterday and are on a 2 game win streak. The Hawks have been off since Saturday and are on a 2 game skid.
Just nothing jumping out at me here.
Islanders vs Flames
This is another game where nothing seems to be jumping out.
Both are 4-4-2 in last 10 so either playing amazingly at the moment.
Rangers vs Canucks
Should be a good game here.
The Rangers are 11-4-1 this season. They’re 6-4-0 in last 10 and 6-1-0 on the road. They rank around 6th in GPG, 9th in shots and 3rd in GAPG.
The Canucks are 9-5-3 this season and 5-4-1 in last 10. At home they have gone a disappointing 3-4-3. They rank 16th in GPG, 20th in shots and 20th in GAPG.
It’s close in Corsi and Fenwick for, Canucks have edge in Corsi against, shots for is basically tied and XGF is also close.
This should be a close game and the sportsbooks would seem to agree.
M. Boldy for Wild
A. Lee for Islanders
J.T. Miller for Canucks
All to score with 2.5u
Good luck, 🤞
To WIN moneyline: Wild and Lightning
Lean puckline win with both of those games.
As bad as St. Louis is playing, this is also their first game after a back-to-back after only one day’s rest, so they’ll not have much spark or endurance tonight.
Pittsburgh is now barely an NHL team. They have the league’s worst goals against count of 80, about 25 more than the middle of the pack, and are weak on offense. Arizona corrected their absurdities with a total purge, and now it’s Pittsburgh’s turn to ditch their ownership and management. Tampa needs points and just clobbered two top teams, so could very well be starting a streak of point collection. Stamkos who? Tampa’s schedule looks great for a while.
Not my two most confident plays but
Edmonton -105
This opened Edmonton-142 and I’m having trouble believing they got the opening line that wrong. Feels like an over reaction to yesterday’s loss to Montreal. This one could be a sharp play but the current price I’m getting on Edmonton makes it easier for me to go against it incase Im on the wrong side.
Vancouver +115
As impressive as Rangers are, I don’t feel Vancouver should be a home underdog. I like the value. Vancouver home record and Rangers away records are a slight concern, but I still feel they have the wrong side as the favorite. Even with Silovs in net for Vancouver.
Chicago shouldn’t be -185 vs anybody. But I’m going to reluctantly pass on a bet on Anaheim.