Written by Graeme on Friday, November 1st, 2024
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A 2-0 night last night, with both the Hurricanes and Capitals winning in regulation. Those both made me happy, because while there are no easy bets in the NHL, those two checked practically every box, and the only real thing against it was variance. Feels like all is right in the world when results like that come in.
The value was there on the Ducks as mentioned. Kraken offense looks to be regressing. And that thing happened yesterday as mentioned – star player McDavid out, and the Oilers respond with a big one.
Alrighty let’s get into the first betting tips of November. Our winning ratio isn’t sustainable, but hopefully it lasts for a little while longer yet. Fittingly, “I Miss You” by Blink just came on the playlist as I wrote that. “And in the night, we’ll wish this never ends. We’ll wish this never ends”. So very true.
Stars vs Panthers:
Global series so no official bets although of course I’m going to bet on it so will still fully analyze it. Starts at 2pm EST. Great way to wrap up the work day while watching hockey.
Bookies have it as a coinflip. Without looking at metrics I think I’d lean Panthers as the better side. Power Rankings Guru has it pretty close. Metrics have Stars better Corsi but Panthers better Fenwick. Stars relying big time on their goaltending and that’s the deciding factor – as the Panthers goaltending is letting them down.
So yeah if you’re betting on this one on a side to win, it’s all about goaltending. Does the Stars goaltending hold up? Does the Panthers step up? To make it tighter – Panthers offense is overperforming while Stars is on point.
So it’s tight but I’d actually go with Stars here. If this was in the USA I’d skip this one anyway though. I’ll only bet it myself due to the time.
Sabres vs Islanders:
Buffalos winning run got cut short against the Panthers. They have had some rest to regroup, and host the Islanders who are on a bad run and man, are having a tough season.
Despite that, bookies have it close to a coinflip. Based on results, a bit of a surprise. Alas, the metrics don’t point towards Sabres enough to back here. Islanders have better metrics, and it’s really only a matter of time. With the Sabres goaltending, this could be the opportunity for their offense to finally get going. No bets here but my gut says Islanders offense do enough to get the win here.
Rangers vs Senators:
Rangers looking to bounce back from that Caps loss. Ottawa just weird AF this season. The advanced metrics would have to be overwhelmingly in favour of the Rangers for me to back them – and that is not the case at all. Sens metrics are actually pretty good in this, and their goaltending lets them down. I won’t be surprised if Sens take the W here but it feels too risky to bet. One of those value plays that are too high variance for me.
Blue Jackets vs Jets:
Jackets on a nice little run, and host the Winnipeg Jets who bounced back strong from their first loss of the season. The advanced metrics in this one are pretty close in quite a few stats, with the big difference of course being GF% & xGF%. I think I’d price Blue Jackets in the 2.30 range myself so there’s certainly value on them, but looking at all the other aspects I’m not seeing enough to bet them.
Wild vs Lightning:
Wild bounced back from the Flyers loss to beat the Penguins. They return home for only the third time this season after a long road trip. Lightning come in as a team I still struggle to figure out. Bookies feel the same, throwing this one down to a flip. Metrics are all quite close. Coin flip odds seem correct here.
Flames vs Devils:
Flames come stumbling in on a bad, bad run. Devils starting to string a couple of big wins together and will be looking to add to that. I had this team clicking later in November – wonder if it’s happening early on. Their Corsi is increasing at a dramatic rate last couple of games.
As you can imagine, Devils metrics are better. CF% a good difference, FF% as well. My concern is the Flames xGA isn’t toooo bad. Basically, if the Devils were at 1.70 or above incl OT/SO I’d probably take them, but I’m a bit hesitant to back them full on regulation.
You’re basically backing the Devils current form to be a trend going forward here, and ignoring everything before their last couple of games.
I’m not feeling good enough about it to back.
For the global series game between Florida and Dallas I was gonna take the OVER 6. However, because of how Dallas goaltending has performed and seeing how Floridas could start to perform, I wasn’t very confident in it. So I’ll keep myself more entertained during the work day with goal scorer props. A couple of Fins from each team and couple other players as well. Might just auto repeat these when they play again depending on how today pans out. Hoping at least two hit to be successful. Always could have a low scoring affair between these two teams as well, which would be worst case scenario for my chances. But I’ll still take an afternoon game to finish out the work week. Oettinger already confirmed for Dallas.
Florida Barkov +280
Florida Verhaeghe +220
Dallas Hintz +240
Dallas Johnston +300
Dallas Hesikanen +850
Obvious choices for others out there would be Reinhart and Robertson. They were the biggest favorites priced, though still decent value in my opinion. However, because of the sheer volume I’m picking it was easy to leave them off as they wouldn’t help me much. But I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them scores instead, and could be a better option.
Dallas has scored I believe 4 goals against an empty net and Florida has conceded both times they pulled the goal if I did that research correctly. Both times Florida conceded were early in the season though. Florida has only scored one empty net goal in six times, but may look to get certain individuals a feel good goal if presented the opportunity. Sometimes this is just narrative though and doesn’t always play out that way.
Awesome run boys
Thanks Yan!
Cant not back the Rangers and Jets against just about anyone imo. So that’s what I’m doing. Also taking a chance on the Devils. If they’re gonna live up to their expectations they need to win this.
To WIN moneyline: New Jersey
Lean: 3rd Period OVER 1.5: Devils/Flames
Props: Hirshier Over 2.5 shots
Buff Thompson Over 0.5 pts, Over 0.5 assists
Full game OVER 6.0: Jets game,
Lean: full game Over 6.0: Rangers game
The Flames have scoring depth and good goaltending, but they have recently been horrid at defensive control, team control of the puck, neutral zone transitions, getting over the blue line, faceoffs and taking stupid penalties. That list can’t be corrected in 2 days. Somehow I do think they’ll make a major correction and soon. Excessive line changing may have f-ed them up a bit. But not all corrected by tonight. New Jersey is scoring at will and has a +11 goal differential. They’re really getting tuned up. They obviously found their defense by obliterating the Canucks 6-0 with both teams taking reduced shots. Devils should be rested enough to complete the Northwest loop with 6 points claimed (Oilers suck right now).
Hirshier is a given. Thompson highly likely for the points prop. Jets game should see goals as Columbus is on fire and I expect that to last all season. The Rangers game is gravitating for high goals, but may go Under if the Rangers can shut down Ottawa’s offense.
You are doing amazing work as always, keep it going guys!