Written by Graeme on Sunday, November 20th, 2022
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Been quite the good morning of sports. Waking up to watch the final F1 race of the season, then the kickoff of the World Cup. Followed by NFL redzone. Then of course the Grey Cup later as well as a couple of NHL games. And NBA. Man I love sports.
I mentioned yesterday I was making the transition from desktop to laptop for the next few weeks due to my surgery. One thing I forgot to mention is that I am also making the switch from Windows to using a MacBook. I have never used the MacOS in my life. It is quite the transition.
However I’m not someone that has tribalism over silly things like that – even if I hate the entire Apple ecosystem. I could see right away how powerful the MacBooks are, and after spending some time on it for the last 24 hours I gotta say – quite digging it.
It was a 1-2 night last night. Had the over in the Islanders/Stars game and that came in fairly easy as expected.
Had Jets to beat the Penguins. That was a very close game that could have went either way. Alas it went the Pens way. Such is life.
That Ducks game though – my god that first period showing was worse than the Flames one a few weeks ago. They was just shocking, and the Blues were able to take full advantage.
Only two games today:
Blue Jackets vs Panthers:
Jackets coming off that pounding by the Wings yesterday. I had to laugh looking back at yesterdays “not sure if Wings can take full advantage” in reference to the Jackets metrics. Um yep they can.
So the question here really is can we take Panthers -1.5? It’s not a play I really like on the road. And Panthers have had some torrid results on the road losing to the Coyotes, Flyers, Blackhawks. Oh yeah super easy no play for me. The over is tempting but the back to back aspect puts me off. If there is one play I’d be going with it’d be the over.
Blackhawks vs Penguins:
Despite their win yesterday I am not really ready to trust the Pens on the road. And it’d have to be in regulation. On paper Pens win due to the Hawks craptacular offence.
So yeah nothing today but if looking for action I’d take that Jackets/Panthers over probably.
Full game reverse puckline +1.5: Chicago
Leans only:
To WIN moneyline: Chicago
Full game UNDER 6.5: Panthers
This is the typical spot where the Penguins take the day off; on the road, back-to-back, non-Conference game, vs a bottom-feeder team. Chicago is at home. The Penguins will not care about this game at all and have a history of being beat by Chicago. No surprise if Chicago wins, but they too are on a back-to-back, so some risk. The reverse puckline looks very interesting.
Florida on a back-to-back on a 1-game road trip north, then back home, they too will not care much about this game. Columbus is full of holes, the UNDER looks good except the Swiss cheese Columbus defense. With Florida off two losses, they may show up to win. Probably too risky to bet.
why wouldn’t penguins care about this game? dont they wanne win?
Florida-1.5 at -105
On the surface blue jackets home record of 5-6 compared to their 1-4-1 away record combined with the lack of value on the panthers as a massive road favorite made me hesitant on how to attack this game best. And whether I’m better off avoiding it all together. Add to that Florida underachieving expectations. Losses to Chicago, Philly and Arizona add to the ugliness of their underwhelming early season record and make them an unattractive team to back.
However getting extra time to break the game down there’s just enough for me to take a shot on the Panthers.
Jackets home record. Wins vs Vancouver in OT, Nashville, Philly twice (one in OT), and Montreal. Not exactly a murders row. The Nashville game was probably their most impressive win of the season, both by the advanced metrics and results. It also happened a month ago. 4 empty net goals in the 5 wins, makes the margin of victory seem more impressive then what the game flow would actually indicate. Combined with two requiring the gimmicky overtime format, does not inspire me to believe this is actually a dangerous home team. Montreal the only one of those teams with a win percentage at 50 percent. Montreal was also able to score comfortably in that game . 4 goals on 42 shots. So it’s not like the blue jackets did something special or held a team in check. Nope the opportunity was there for Montreal to win this game. Montembault was just not sharp for them like he has been in his other few spots so far this season. Add an empty netter and the final score looks more deceptive.
Jackets home losses on the other hand have all been by a significant margin.
Tampa by 3.
Pittsburgh by 3.
Arizona by 3. Arizona did score an empty netter than conceded a goal back with 9 seconds left. Kinda balances it out. Arizona also led this game 5-0 at one point in the third.
Boston by 4.
Avs by 4. Doesn’t technically count as this was global series.
And just yesterday Detroit by 5.
Then we get to the injuries. CBJ six players on IR. Two more ruled out. The goaltending. Tarasov expected off the back to back. Last start couldn’t make it thru 2 periods. Conceded 4 goals on 12 shots to the Coyotes. Stood on his head vs Rangers. Gave up 5 to Tampa. 4 to Carolina. I’m leaning more towards his tampa and carolina results rather than the outlier vs the rangers when projecting his future season results. Merzilikins injured. Korpisalo gave up six just yesterday and was left in the entire game. The defense in front of him, 31st in the league with 75 goals against. 31st in the league in shots against only Anaheim is worse. Florida leads the league in shots for and is the only team averaging over 40 shots a game. Lot of pressure on Tarasov.
I don’t think this is a dead spot unmotivated game for Florida. Yes they played yesterday and traveled. Some of this will be balanced based on Columbus also playing yesterday. However i will agree more effort exerted by Florida in the SO loss then CBJ in a game they were never in. When you see their losses were against the oilers, stars and flames in recent games it’s not that far fetched for them to drop these games. Also looking at the goals they’ve scored this month on the road and at home, the offense is clicking. Solid wins in between as well. beat washington 5-2. Shutout carolina. I see this is more of a get right game off some tough recent results that haven’t gone their way. 2 home losses in a row prior, followed by two days off before returning home for a Wednesday game vs Boston. This is the perfect sparring partner to get that confidence back, with just enough rest in between to go full out to get a dominant result and fix some things defensively heading into next weeks game.
Vegas tried hard to make this game unappealing to keep people from taking florida. They made the line as high as they could. They took away plus money from the puckline. Everyone will be betting NFL. Then when the dust settles and you look tomorrow at the results, of course florida beat the crappy injured jackets 5-2 lol. I’ve talked myself into it. Gimme the Panthers puck line -1.5 at -105 odds.