Written by Graeme on Wednesday, November 20th, 2024
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A winning night for Scott, as the Minnesota Wild got the win in regulation. The Blues were feisty at times, but the better team win out thankfully.
Rangers and Canucks was a 7 goal banger with the Rangers coming out the winners there. Winnipeg got a solid win over Florida, and a nice road victory for the Oilers.
We have five games on the board today.
Flyers vs Hurricanes:
Philly come into this one after that loss to the Avs. Canes come in on their usual roll. They have been very impressive this season.
Unfortunately, if I were to back them it would have to be -1.5 on the road. Which isn’t something I love. But let’s see what the data says. They do have that extra day of rest. Crushing it on Corsi and Fenwick like what a difference betwen these two – and if it was just based on that, this would be an easy one.
Alas it is not. In particular, the Flyers GA/60 and xGA/60 isn’t too bad at all, same with SCGA/60. Like it’s marginal – I’d price Canes at about 2.10 odds myself to cover the -1.5 and that’s what the bookies have exactly.
Bear in mind the Flyers have went 6 games without losing in that fashion too, and yeah it’s a no play for me. If you’re considering it, the empty net might come into play and in that instance – it makes it more favourable for the Canes, who have played against teams with an empty net 7 times, and scored….7 times. For reference, a strong success rate for that is like 40% and above – so that’s pretty mental.
Almost makes it a play except the Flyers are the 7th best team at scoring while playing with an empty net.
Leafs vs Knights:
Still not really loving the Knights on the road although they’re getting there. No real confidence in Leafs. By the metrics, definite edge to the Leafs and I think they should take it but 1.76 for them, no thanks.
Stars vs Sharks:
Stars coming in off that Ducks loss. I have two Stars friends who flew all the way from the UK for the two games this week, expecting big wins. They were even behind the goal for that game. Hopefully they get better luck tonight.
Sharks have been feisty lately it has to be said, and the odds are insane. Like Stars would have to be -2.5. They’re decent enough on the bounce back.
The data does not support Stars -2.5. Hell with the Sharks GA/60 and SCGA/60 I’d hesitate at -1.5 to be honest.
Kraken vs Predators:
Seattle had that little run cut short by the Rangers. Preds had a solid and much needed victory away to Vancouver.
Two teams who I don’t really have strong opinions on at the moment. So it’s all about the data which is kind of inconclusive. Based on the metrics, Preds should likely squeak a victory but this is a real toss-up, and an easy avoid.
Kings vs Sabres:
The Kings stopped a two game skid with a big win over the Red Wings. Buffalo coming in off that Philly loss.
Kings the better side, would have to be in regulation. Corsi & Fenwick solid differences. Sabres actually scoring ore over last 10, although conceding more. Sabres xGA/60 is low though compared to goals conceded. They’re very goalie dependent.
I expect Luukkonen to be in tonight and there is a big difference between the two. Not only does he have the much better GAA but he also has a higher xGA and HDSA. Christ he is really performing so much better when you break it all down.
So yeah it’s goalie dependent. And Levi is being sent down.
Kings in Regulation if Luukkonen is NOT in net although it looks like he will be.
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/20 10:02:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
