Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 21st, 2024
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No plays yesterday. Luukkonen was in net for the Sabres, and shut out the Kings. Any picks involving the Sabres going forward should 100% be goalie dependent for the nxt little while. Kings had a 3.92 xG in that one and 16 high danger chances. That’s the difference a goalie can make.
Canes covered that -1.5 with a big win and the Leafs had a solid result at home againt the Knights. My friends enjoyed the Stars getting the win, and even got featured on the Stars twitter account which was neat.
Big Thursday so let’s get at it:
Devils vs Hurricanes:
Interesting one this. Devils coming off that Tampa bounding but the Canes on a B2B. One I am very happy to pass on. Canes generally have the edge by the metrics but the road trip and B2B negate that.
Capitals vs Avalanche:
Not worth playing with Ovi out. At 2.20 with the metrics this would otherwise likely be a play on the Caps. Still don’t hate ’em, but it’s a very roll the dice play I’m not comfortable going with.
Red Wings vs Islanders:
Metrics have it close, with a lean on the Islanders. Bookies odds are on point here.
Blue Jackets vs Lightning:
Jackets coming off that big win in Boston. Tampa on a three game winning streak. If Tampa, it’d have to be in regulation and the data isn’t really backing that up. Jackets with a better CF% & FF%. Much better xGF too. If their defense and goaltending was better, I’d take them to win here. If their offense was producing like they should, or Tampa had worse xGA and GA, I’d be all over the over. As it is – no play.
Bruins vs Utah:
Dismal times for Boston as they look to recover from their latst drubbing. Could be the right time to face Utah. Utah with a better CF%, FF% is a wash. Bleh. This one is tempting as much as Boston suck right now.
The issue is the Bruins struggling to score, while conceding way more than they hould. They have Sacco in, will that freshen things up? Swayman is projected tonight. I think I’d prefer Korpisalo for sure.
But eh – fresh start. Based on xGF%, Bruins are solidly better. Utah have their own goaltending issues and a worse xG.
I’m good to go with Bruins in Regulation even if I don’t feel super great about it.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/21 8:46:32 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Knights:
Sens come in off a couple of big time losses. Knights though on a B2B and on the road – meh. I am good to pass on this one.
Blues vs Sharks:
Nothing for this one. I was hoping the metrics might make this a Sharks pick, but the xGF stats put me right off.
Blackhawks vs Panthers:
Florda come in struggling somewhat and will be hoping to fix that here. We’d have to back them at -1.5. The data doesn’t support that enough. Blackhawks GA/60 is solid, even if their xGA/60 sucks. One of those things where there would be too many variables to count to decide to back this.
Oilers vs Wild:
Oilers at home after the big win in Ottawa. Minnesota playing genrally well results wise although it’s not been a murderer’s row of teams for them. That’s where weighted advanced metrics are important. This seems quite close so I don’t hate an underdog play on Minnesota here, but the data is a bit skewed and not as clear.
Flames vs Rangers:
Nothing here. By the data both teams kind of cancel each other out in that where the Rangers offense is strong, the Flames defense metrics counter that.
Notable Goaltenders
Johansson for Tampa
Korpisalo for Boston
Georgiev for Colorado
Samsonov for Vegas
Spencer Martin for Carolina
Askarov debut for Sharks
Spencer Knight for Florida
Fleury for Minnesota