Written by Graeme on Friday, November 22nd, 2024
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A 1-0 night last night, as the Bruins got the win in regulation. Probably should have been 2-0. That last little sweat after thinking it was over sucked. With their offense unable to beat Vejmelka, I’m glad Korpisalo was in over Swayman that’s for sure.
Interesting seeing that Jackets/Lightning game because that was one I was very curious about. I wanted to take both the Jackets and the over in that one, but there were just a couple of issues stopping me. That would have been a high variance play, but great it worked out.
Only two games today.
Penguins vs Jets:
Pens with just four regulation wins this season. Ouch. Jets broke their two game skid with the big 6-3 win against the Panthers.
Jets I would have to take in regulation. Pens concern me a bit to be honest. They are that weird team that still can randomlys how up. Actually have a better CF% and FF% than the Jets. By all the xG stats – man, Pens look actually quite good here.
Goaltending is benefiting the Jets, as is overscoring, while the Pens should be scoring more based on what they’re creating.
I don’t have enough base to make it a play, considering the GF% metrics, but this game is RIPE for an upset. But with the Pens brutal goals conceded record, and the Jets offense – I do not have the balls to go with it here.
Ducks vs Sabres:
Ducks on a nice little run and they host Buffalo, who are a mixed bag at the moment.
I’m seeing nothing in the data to go with anything. You just can’t back the Ducks with their horrific defensive metrics, but the Sabres offense is overperforming and are completely unreliable.
No plays today, enjoy your Friday.
Probably no bets. Conflicting game info, I agree with Graeme’s comments.
Obvious public leans will be Jets moneyline and puckline, and probably the Over 6.0 in the Sabres/Ducks game.
Motivation level, in combination with situation and readiness (rest, travel fatigue level, Division game?, inspiring opposition?, players or teams going for some kind of record or status or short-term goal?, playoff race pressure, Vegas hangovers, etc.)……..are often far more dominating influences over game performance results than stats averages are.
It’s still November! Yes, the Jets are running away with the league lead with elite scoring and defense. They’ve had two days off. The Pens have the league’s worst defense and a weak offense. But the Pens on RARE occasion, score a few goals. I’d be surprised if they win, but I see them wanting to put on a good show here, and the Jets motivation will not be high, even though I’d expect the Jets to put on at least an average effort on their own terms. It would not serve the Pens well to score early; the Jets would respond and game over. But the whole thing stinks for motivation issues. Jets play tomorrow (Nashville) and won’t be worried about that level of competition, but the Twang Twangs should be a tougher challenge than the Swiss Cheese Penguins. All that being said, the Pens actually signed Puljujarvi. They aim to tank. Won’t surprise me of Jets win 12-1.
I expect some kind of positive turning point to eventually arrive for Buffalo, I don’t know what will cause it. Motivation and line tinkering? The Ducks won’t motivate anyone who isn’t already in a playoff race panic, and they can win some games. I can’t read this one.
Damn you Western and your…..LOGIC!! You’ll be sorry you ever said a bad word about the Penguins and their franchise…..SORRY I SAY!
Penguins don’t even know the meaning of tank….Its not like they’ve ever tanked before…to get a player…or two….that eventually helped them win back to back cups.
Besides it’s not even called tanking anymore, I’ve been told it’s called TRUSTING THE PROCESS.
………….Fine I’ll do it. Pittsburgh +150. Penguins have NEVER let me down…….
Oh and while I’m burning money…..Buffalo Cozens to score +260.
Not sure if Tage Thompson is returning to the lineup yet and his player props aren’t up as of yet.