Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 23rd, 2024
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Well thankfully I stayed away from that Penguins game last night, as they got absolutely roasted by the Jets.
The Buffalo Sabres squeaked the win over the Anaheim Ducks in overtime.
We have about 80 billion games today so let’s get to it – I’ll give you a heads up it’s only one pick and it’s goalie dependent. Just one of those days.
Some write-ups may be a tad short for obvious reasons. Man, looking at this quantity of games I kind of wished THIS was the week I had to tap out due to a hangover.
Let’s get to it:
Flyers vs Blackhawks:
Philly come in after two tough losses. Hawks with momentum after that Panthers win. Was hoping the data might push towards a Flyers win enough to back it It’s close, but it does not overall. I do think they take this in regulation, but let’s move on. Oh wait Kolosov is in – yeah I wouldn’t even consider that.
Flames vs Wild:
Wild looking to make an Alberta double this afternoon. Flames are dogs, but they have better CF% & FF%. Scoring less but xG is the same. Not conceding much although their xGA is worse. Goaltending huge for them.
Not seeing anything here. I’d be on under 6, but the line is 5.5 and a tad too risky there as it allows an empty netter possibility. If you’re betting this, pay attention to goalies.
Kings vs Kraken:
Kings coming off that brutal loss at home to Buffalo where they were shut out. Kraken on a nice little run the past week but are big dogs here. Yeah the data generally agrees with that. Kings much better in Corsi and Fenwick, scoring as they should, conceding as they should. Kraken should be conceding more.
I assume it’s going to be Daccord, but on the off-chance it’s not: Kings in Regulation if Daccord not in net
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/23 9:04:02 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Avalanche:
Panthers struggling hard at the moment. Not the best time to face the Avs – although I still hesitate to back them as it’s a lot of tight wins. This one is an easy pass for me.
Red Wings vs Bruins:
With no strong feelings about either team right now, it’s all about the data. The big question is IF the Bruins offense can get going. xGF/60 of 3.35, but GF/60 of 1.97 over the last 10. This is a good opportunity for them, with the Wings 3.29 GA/60 and 3.06 xGA/60. I just don’t have confidence in the Bruins offense getting it going. They only got 1 past Utah – not much difference here.
Eventually that will change though and they’ll start surging I expect.
Jackets vs Hurricanes:
Jackets coming in off that banger Tampa game. Their offense is flying most of the time right now. Facing the machine, the Carolina Hurricanes, who just lost to the Devils.
I really want to back the over 6.5 in this one, but MAN the Hurricanes goaltending is on point, while the Jackets are experiencing a solid surge in offense but that could easily come to a halt here.
No bet here.
Lightning vs Stars:
I just don’t know what the hell to even think of Tampa at the moment. Let’s look at the data – Stars big edge in CF%, and FF%. Scoring more last 10, conceding less. Better xGF/XGA. Of course they’re on the road, but by the numbers this is a play on Dallas.
So let’s dive deeper. Stars are on the road. Tampa are – ick – 6-1-1 at home. Stars just 4-4 on the road. Meh. It’s smallish sample size, but still something to take note of.
I think that pushes the odds into coinflip territory, which is what the bookies have it at so yep – no play. If the venue was reserved, this would be the easiest “Stars in Regulation” play all day long.
Capitals vs Devils:
Washingtons nice run was ended at home to Colorado, as without Ovi they couldn’t score. I’d like to think they can bounce back and sort themselves out, but the Devils are starting to play like expected (for the most part).
Actually even with the inclusion of Ovi’s metrics, Devils don’t look too shabby a play. Caps did rack up a solid xGF against the Avs despite the loss. They were really unfortunate in that one more than anything else, and had one of their best HDCF as well.
Man – rewatching that game, bleh. Really, without Ovi the Caps just came off unfortunate more than anything else. Now that COULD affect their confidence, but I don’t think we can write them off. No play. If the Devils odds were slightly better, I’d back them.
Penguins vs Utah:
Nothing.
Senators vs Canucks:
Sens struggling at the moment but the Canucks also come in on a skid. I slightly lean the Sens here, but not enough to bet them at 1.74.
Canadiens vs Knights:
Habs won two in a row, and 3 of their last 4. Just give us the cup. Knights just stopped a two game skid with that tight one over the Sens. They are just still so iffy on the road, and Montreal are better at home. Too risky to take Knights in regulation. By the data, it’s a bit too tight to do that anyway due to the Knights xGA & GA.
Predators vs Jets:
Jets on a road B2B which is always offputting. If it wasn’t for that I’d likely back them here.
Islanders vs Blues:
Two rather torrid teams. By the data – my god their advanced metrics are both so bad. What a dumpster fire of a game this is. A slight lean to the Islanders, but not enough to back them in regulation. Welp no play.
Sharks vs Sabres:
Sabres better CF% and FF% by a decent margin. Scoring more, conceding less, creating (slightly) more, conceding less chances. If our goalie was in tonight I’d likely back them, but he’s not and he is the difference maker. No bet.
Oilers vs Rangers:
Nothing here.
Philly -155
I’m hoping chicago struggles to get high danger shots will continue because if not I don’t see Flyers winning with who’s in net.
Florida -125
I’ll roll with Panthers at home.
Boston -135
Detroit offensive struggles give me somewhat of an out if Boston continues to perform below their expected goals.
Washington +115
The offense drop off might be a concern or it could have been just one game. I’ll roll the dice on them as home dogs, but if they struggle again here Caps may be tough to back until they prove they can score without Ovechkin.