Written by Graeme on Friday, November 25th, 2016
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It was a nice winning night last night with the Montreal Canadiens getting the victory in regulation. It was a tight one with some good saves by both goaltenders. Like I said yesterday if you bet the Canes you shouldn’t be kicking yourself – those odds were easily a nice value play based on the game that transformed.
Our 1st period system said the Bruins would win the 1st period and they did so before getting soundly thrashed by Ottawa.
We also had an OHL Tip which one as Sault Ste Marie hammered the North Bay Battalion 6-1 so overall a good little betting day.
We move on to Friday, November 25th. Lot of games today.
Rangers vs Flyers Betting Tips:
There are two negatives to this one really. The last 5 games between the two have went Under 5.5 goals. Also after Lunqdvists crappy night last time out you have to worry he will be activating beast mode. The matchups between the two over the last few years have generally been tight so that’s a concern. However the stats for both teams going into that this one makes it look good to go Over 5.5.
The Rangers are the top goalscoring team in the league by far – yet they concede a fair amount too while scoring. The Flyers are a very similar team with a whopping 3.33 GAA and Mason himself is at 3.04. The stats for their previous matchups suck but I think this seasons overall stats make this a play.
As for Lundqvist and “beast mode” – that’s where we look back at his history of conceding goals and having bad nights from this season to the last and seeing if he bounced back strong. And you know what? Overall he really didn’t. There’s the odd one (concedes 4 in 19 against Hawks, shutout against the Wings 4 nights later) but nothing that suggests he’ll be able to step up the play and stifle the Flyers while on the road.
Over 5.5 Goals. We got it at 1.99 at Pinnacle but it’s available at most books for 1.90 which is an okay line too.
Capitals vs Sabres Betting Tips:
We’re taking Capitals in regulation which is around 1.80 odds but you can get 1.89 at BetOnline.. Capitals are obviously the better team but most importantly is the way their offense is clicking at the moment – especially Kuznetsov looking good now. We like the Capitals to get some consistency going and get the win over the Sabres who just won’t be able to match them due to their lack in offense.
Grubauer is in net for the Capitals. A slight concern that because it’ll motivate the Sabres offense and I didn’t like the way the Canes so easily got past him on the 12th. However the Sabres offense is still extremely poor and Grubauers parents are here to watch him play an NHL game for the first time ever – things like that can give someone that extra motivation and we’re going to hope the Capitals can take this one.
Predators vs Jets Betting Tips:
Predators are above 1.80 odds to win in regulation with a high of 1.92 and we’re taking Predators to win in regulation.
Jets are a scary bloody team at times and you can never count them out. This bad run of games on the road trip has been brutal, and with this being their last game before returning home they’ll be up for it. However the Predators have just been so damn good at home this season. I’d go as far as to say they’re the best home team this season, while the Jets have really struggled.
Rinne isn’t confirmed yet – bet is based on that – but it looks likely that he’ll be in net. I just can’t argue against the Preds at home this season at the moment.
Coyotes vs Oilers:
This is not an official tip because it’s only me that thinks this. Scott can’t go along with it but I’ve put so much work into it I wanted to mention it – I’ll be betting on the Coyotes to win at 2.45 odds.
I know the Oilers have got things going again and are looking great. I know that because I’ve got lots of friends who are Oilers fans and in the past 3 days I’ve received so many “We want the Cup” messages etc I’m ready to start blocking peple. And really they’ve only had one BAD game which was against the Sabres. They’ve looked solid elsewhere even in defeat.
But they’ve still lost a bunch on the road. And I like Mike Smith. he has really bad games(like the Canucks game) but he was practically standing on his head against the Sharks to make some saves.
Coyotes have a hell of a record against the Oilers, and while their stats this year are below average they’re still hanging on there and making it tough for everyone.
Anyway like I said it’s not an official pick and I haven’t found one person to agree with me. Even friends who hate the Oilers couldn’t get on board so maybe I’m just crazy.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
1st Period System (1-1, +0.7u): Out of nowhere, the system has a lot of picks today. I need to post this warning: this is a high variance system. I would not be in the least surprised to see every pick lose. So just bear that in mind as I know a lot of people can’t handle big swings etc.
San Jose Sharks: 2.45.
Anaheim Ducks: 2.90.
Minnesota Wild: 3.15. B365 I don’t believe you can bet them at -0.5 so have to do 888 Sports.
Washington Capitals: 2.50.
Nashville Predators: 2.50.
OHL Betting Tips(4-6, -2.05u): Niagara IceDogs to win in regulation at 1.95 odds. London Knights/Barrie Colts Over 7.5 goals at 1.75 odds. Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds in regulation at 2.00 odds.
AHL Betting Tips(6-2, +3.81u) : Syracuse Crunch to win at 1.90 odds.
WHL Betting Tips(11-7, +2.26u): Moose Jaw Warriors in regulation at 1.95 odds. Medicine Hat Tigers in regulation at 1.65 odds.
1st Period Betting:
Canadians: Sports Interaction, Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv & 888 Sports.
Americans: BetOnline. or Bovada.
Everyone Else: Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Combo
Hawks ML
Caps reg
Over 4.5 @ Flyers – Rangers
ODD 4.56 with 0.1 units
I wish I am not right with my prediction. I was thinking game will end 1-3
I thought about 2 goals from the Flyers. 🙂
You got yours ans I got mine ☺
You did it again 🙂
I’m doing some good analyses, but I really want to lose a bet. I’m thinking the whole time the next bet must lose, but things just don’t happen. I mean I just lost one bet this season. Wtf really!? When will I lose 10 bets in a row?? 😀
Hopefully never 🙂 I think it’s fair to say that your analyses are more than just good – they are extremely good 🙂 Another great night of hockey coming up – but still waiting for the majority of the odds ? GL tonight ?
You never know when, but it will come. It always so. You will lose first and then keep losing. :S
Flyers, Predators, Tampa Bay and Bruins.
Tampa Bay
– BET OF THE DAY –
> Caps in regulation
Probably the best night of the season for me last night (amount of bets vs winnings) came with some weird plays. I got this feeling that i want to try something different, so first i went with Ottawa -1.5 as i found it funny how everyone and their moms were somehow turning Chara injury and last years blowout loss that cost them a playoff spot to positive, and the line were climbing up for Ottawa all night long, all the way to 4 for handicap. Okay that wasn’t that different from my normal bets, but then i ended up doing something i never do, betting on the exact score of the Habs-Canes game = 2-1, 14.75 odds. I was so happy when it actually came through, something when you have a feeling you just have to capitalize. And on top of all this, i bet on Andrew Shaw to score a goal with 5 odds – and what do you know he scored the 1st goal of the game. FeelsGoodMan 😀
Let’s hope the good fortune continues, im feeling pretty good about some of the games tonight.
Favorites to win:
Predators in regulation @ 1.95
– Jets are in a really tough spot. Overall they’ve been decent this season, but find themselves victims of a bad schedule right now. The Preds are 1) the better team 2) at home 3) Rinne is playing great 4) and most importantly, the Preds are feeling it right now, they’re having fun. I don’t expect to be a smooth sailing for the Preds and it’s probably going to take some time to get the engine going, but when they do, i don’t think the Jets can stop them at their current, fragile state after losing 4 in a row.
Dallas in regulation @ 1.95
– I feel like the Stars are in a really good place for this game. They won’t be overconfident because they need a win here, they can’t be happy with 2 wins in the last 6 games. That said they haven’t been terrible at all. It’s just that when they lose they tend to do defensive mistakes that lead to some pretty ugly scores, but Dallas is an excellent team at responding. And when you look at the rosters (and Niemi has been pretty good against Vancouver in the last couple of seasons, so the biggest weakness of the Stars shouldn’t be that bad tonight), how can i not make this bet ?
Underdogs to win:
Sabres ML @ 2.90
– Im generally pretty good at predicting when the Caps have an off game, and this seems like just that. They’re feeling great at the moment and have gotten the results lately + Buffalo isn’t exactly the most motivating team to play against in this type of situation. Sabres on the other hand will want the game more, and have been playing some good hockey lately. They got O’Reilly back which was a boost for them, and Lehner has been playing well again (+ last time he played against the Caps he was also good, although that was in 14-15, but anything to boost confidence doesn’t hurt), meanwhile Grubauer is in for the Caps. Only reason im not going for the juicy odds of a regulation win is because Ovie is hot right now and the Caps are always capable of tying up a game late against inferior opponents. But even if that’s the case i still have a chance to win the bet in OT/SO.
Flames ML @ 2.45
– To me they have a pretty good value considering how frustrated the Bruins are offensively right now. Rask is looking a bit shaky in key situations, and Johnson has been solid for the Flames (and solid against the Bruins in general). Good chance this is going to be one of those frustrating games for the Bruins, where you try to drive the play all night long, bang your head against a hot goalie and your opponent capitalizes on your mistakes. Doesn’t help the B’s chances that it’s their 3rd game in 4 nights, along with B2B, not that i necessarily think it’s a factor, but sometimes it might just make the frustration even worse and you just hit a wall. As of now though, Johnson is not yet confirmed. If it’s Elliott in net then i think the B’s will win.
Blue Jackets in regulation @ 3.20
– I wouldn’t be worried about the last 2 games. They’re still playing well. It was complacency that hit them, but tonight they will have their killer instinct back and catch the hot-Bolts off guard. I’ve said before that the BJ’s are the underdog team of the year, and im sticking with it.
Red Wings in regulation @ 3.00
– This is purely a value bet. Im banking on Schneider having a bad night. 87.7 save pct over his last 3 starts, 89.5 vs the Wings since 14-15. Not good numbers. And the Devils are not out of the woods yet, taking advantage of one of the worst goalies of the year so far in Enroth isn’t much of a accomplishment in my opinion. Devils are not the better team without Hall. I think it’ll be a frustating game for them, where at times think they have it in the bag but the Wings capitalize on their chances and steal the game.
Coyotes ML @ 2.45
– Normally i don’t fancy the Coyotes, but they do have one thing they’re generally good at – and that’s winning at home when they have to. Mike Smith laid an egg in the last game, but Domingue is back, and he’s been good lately. They will throw everything at the Oilers tonight, and with the shaky Gustavsson in net and Oilers feeling a bit complacent after having played a string of great games, i think the Coyotes will to win along with Domingue outplaying Gus is going to win them the game. If Talbot happens to play tonight, im probably still going for the Yotes.
OT bet of the night:
Islanders – Sharks @ 4.25
– Islanders are an OT magnet right now. They’re too frustrated to win games in regulation, but good enough to work their way into OT (apart from last game, my Kings -1.5 bet said thank you). And work is the key word here. They will work, and Greiss has been confident lately (+94.4% vs the Sharks last year). Aaron Dell is probably in net for the Sharks. They played well the last 2 games, but this just feels a bit of a letdown game for them. Basically i think this game is identical to the Ducks-Islanders game a couple nights back.
Good luck everybody and have a nice weekend !
Next time you should share your successful thoughts (again). :))
I would’ve, but the tips werent up at the time and came up late 😀
Okay apparently Smith is in net for the Yotes, which i actually don’t mind. He’s been good against Edmonton in the past and should want to bounce back after that stinker of a game. Doesn’t debunk my theory of why i think the Yotes win.
Im also going to add
Ducks in regulation @ 2.55
– I thought about the Ducks a lot earlier today, but didn’t have the confidence to go for them. Now that i see Toews is out, i think that’s exactly what the Ducks and i needed to make this happen 😀
I would like to see the game because hawks are one of my favourite tonight and I think they are well rested and ready for that game.
Maybe the Caps will have their off game against the Leafs – And not today at home ice?! @artoreinikainen:disqus
Duh..
Not confident on the Sabres anymore, im backing off from that bet, as A. Nilsson seems to be in net.. Sometimes i don’t understand these goalie decisions 😀 He got absolutely smoked the last time he played the Caps, and despite being hot lately he hasn’t played a lot.. So might just be one of those nights where the Caps don’t play well but score more goals. In any case i felt Lehner was going to be an integral part of the Sabres win but now that he’s not in im not sure anymore.
The feeling when Islanders tie it up in the last minute only to lose it before the buzzer. Lol
“Value” is tossed around very loosely here. Value is finding a -105 price when other books are charging -110 or -115 on the same bet. Value here seems to mean you should bet on less talented teams over good teams because they have a higher payout opportunity. That is a very poor handicapping tactic.
If that was the case then practically every single bet in the NHL could be considered a value bet due to the wide diversity in odds at the different sportsbooks. For us, value is in betting odds that are off what we believe the true line is and it’s an +EV play. In last nights example we believe that the Hurricanes at those odds were an +EV play.
If you’re betting NHL right, you should be getting that for nearly every single game anyway, since at least for us Europeans, there’s so many bookers you will find one with top odds for every single bet you make. If we used the word value for that it wouldn’t have any meaning. Like Scott (or Graeme whoever it is tonight) said, value means if i think team A has a great chance to win and personally would bet them at for example 2.30 price, and i see some bookers offering 3.00 for it, then that’s a value bet for me. It’s all subjective.
Other example: team A are heavy favorites, average market value is 1.70, but then this one booker is offering 2.00 odds. In your books that’s a value bet, but if im sure they won’t win it’s not a value bet for me, not even close. But according to what you’re saying, it would be great value just because it’s above the rest of the market.
Project lion 1/15
Jackets win
Project lion combi still in process.
Habs won yesterday and waiting for penguins and rangers wins in reg.
Good luck everyone
Jackets loosing at home vs Flames but winning on the road agains’t hot Bolts? :/ mind blown if that happens lol
Impressive right? ☺
Hey guys, I can’t believe you got the Caps in regulation at 1.8! On sports select they are 1.45
My 4 team parlay there was Caps (1.45), Sharks (1.6), Bruins (1.85), and Stars (1.7).
Hawks, Pens, Sharks, Caps, Preds, Bruins, Devils, Tampa, Stars, Oilers win
1.45? NO WAY! It’s incl. OT
Yeah Sports Select is regulation only too!
Tonight I think
Vancouver beat Dallas
Edmonton beat Arizona
Nashville beat Winnipeg
Gonna go through my bets, as long-term the key learning and there’s always something to take notes of, i would recommend this to anyone. It doesn’t help if you just look at the scores and go “well that didn’t work out” and back away from a similar bet next time without knowing what happened, or vice-versa making a same bad bet next game having not learned anything the last time.
Preds in reg – went as i expected which was good to see. I did mention it was going to take some time for the Preds to get the engine going, as the Jets will work hard as long as they’re in the game. Jets got a lucky bounce to get the 1st goal, but the bounces evened out later on the Neal 3-1 goal. Once the Preds started surging the fragile Jets couldn’t stop them. In hindsight -1.5 was the correct play here, as teams going completely different directions usually makes that happen. Not exactly sure why i didn’t go for that.
Stars in reg – was a bit closer than i’d liked, but eventually they got it done and that was what the high-confidence bet was about.
Ducks in reg – Crawford won the battle against Gibson. Ducks had enough jump in their game to win it in my opinion, but at the end of the day when one goalie feels good about the game and the other one feels like on a good day he could’ve stopped couple of those goals, the better goalie will win the game every single time. I did know Crawford had been solid against the Ducks since 14-15 season, and Gibson had been relatively shaky lately. Goalies are such a big part of the game that it should’ve at least been enough for me to skip the game alltogether, but yeah, i didn’t and deserved the loss. Did not know though that Crawford was 4-0-0 vs the Ducks on black fridays (now 5-0-0).
Sabres ML – I posted before the game started that with Nilsson in net i decided to skip this bet which was the correct call. I probably dodged a bullet there, since Nilsson played pretty well but the Sabres didn’t have enough goal support, so i don’t know if Lehner in net could’ve made a difference. This is something that i should keep in mind for the future. I pride myself on underdog wins, but sometimes get too hopeful when i really shouldn’t be. At the end of the day if you’re struggling to score, it’s very very tough to beat better teams.
Flames ML – One of my best bets of the night. I feel like i made the correct call and the reason why they won was spot on.
Blue Jackets in reg – Another great one. Not really much to add.
Red Wings in reg – Game where i picked the right team, reasons to win were spot on, but i just picked the wrong bet as ML would’ve been the right one, but i was also a bit unlucky. Howard who have been way more confident than Mrazek got injured in the 1st period and Mrazek was shaky throughout the game. Maybe they win the game in regulation with Howard, and also they had a late full 2 min PP that could’ve saved my ass, but couldn’t capitalize.
By the way, the reason i usually like to post extensive explanations to my picks is so that people can make their own conclusions. Like in this one you could’ve read between the lines that there was going to be a lot of goals. I jumped on Over 5.5 at 2.40 price when i saw the value. So if you’re a fan of those bets, and thought about going for the Over, my view of the game supported that. I don’t post O/U bets here though, as generally i avoid them and if i do happen to go for them they’re just something extra.
Sharks-Islanders OT – Well what can i say. If you asked me before the game do i want to go for 4.25 odds if the game is tied 57 seconds before the end of regulation, i say ‘fuck yeah’ every single time. Sometimes this happens and there’s nothing you can do about it.
Coyotes ML – Graeme don’t worry you weren’t alone with this one 😀 They played a solid game and despite it being extremely close, most of the time will overcomes skill and that’s what eventually happened. Happy with this bet.
So yeah.. Very emotional night of hockey as i jumped up and down on my couch, screamed “FU**” and also “FU** YEAH” many times 😀 Tough start but a great finish to the night.
Nice job!
Thanks 🙂
thank you again for the thoughtful comments. You’re a gentleman and a scholar!
Haha thank you 😀