Written by Graeme on Sunday, November 27th, 2022
Follow @BetNHL
A note that we don’t have any bets today. So just a quick PSA about betting, then the usual analysis.
Isn’t hockey betting just the freaking best?
Panthers up 4-1 with just 12 minutes left on the clock. Against a team on a back to back who you wouldn’t blame for being jaded and turtling up at that point.
Instead the Blues rack up 19 shots to the Panthers 4, and make a huge comeback.
What’s really frustrating about that one is that I said that one should go over. But I was concerned about that exact situation – Panthers with a solid lead late in the 3rd and the game just fizzles out.
Anyway it is what it is. That’s betting on hockey and it’s not like those comebacks are extremely rare – we saw the Oilers do it earlier in the day!
Just remember – these things happen. Bad beats, variance, whatever. It’s how gambling works. If you bet that one and lost don’t do anything crazy or anything out of the realm of your usual betting.
If you find that result or how it went down really affected you emotionally etc – take a step back. Take a couple days off and regroup, rather than trying to chase losses etc.
And don’t just be results orientated. Like yeah that bet lost – but it was still the right bet to make. And even those times where the bet in hindsight was wrong – rather than beating yourself up over it, look at it and learn for the future.
Sorry for the long PSA but I browse a lot of betting forums and subreddits and I see so many people who lose their minds over things like that. I’ve been betting semi-professionally for over 20 years now – things like that don’t bother me in the least anymore.
I saw one guy yesterday, who generally bets sensible 1u plays on soccer, have an 0-4 day on Friday at the World Cup.
The next day, his post was all about “winning back the money I lost yesterday” and he ended up doing 10u plays on all four games at odds like 1.38 and 1.17 etc, and chasing his losses. Very silly, very dangerous. They’re known as “bridgejumper bets” for a reason.
Practise proper bankroll management and all that. Make your units the size of your bankroll, have a bankroll of about 100 units, and adjust unit size accordingly. So that even if you have an 0-4 day, the worst thing is you have to bet slightly less per unit the next day.
Right let’s get on with the 5 NHL games taking place today:
Wild vs Coyotes:
Wild are heavy favourites here. Coming in off that loss to the Leafs. Coyotes on the longest road trip of all time had a couple of decent results coming into this one.
Wild are generally good at covering the -1.5 when they do win but you are talking about only 6 wins in regulation. Only 1 of them they didn’t cover the puck line.
Anyway the metrics don’t suggest they cover the handicap at all. Looks more like the type of game that’ll go to OT and will all come down to a potential empty net goal.
Not one I feel like backing.
Blackhawks vs Jets:
Yeah I have no interest in touching this one. Metrics do suggest a Jets win but not taking them on the road in regulation.
Ducks vs Kraken:
Kraken got the good win over the Knights. Come in against a struggling Ducks team.
The Krakens Corsi/Fenwick for last time is a right cause for concern. Their offence is grotesquely overperforming right now.
But they are going against a Ducks team who believe or not should be conceding more. Goaltending is actually a positive for them right now.
Some of the Krakens offensive metrics are a concern, and on the road in regulation I’m going to stay away.
Sharks vs Canucks:
Sharks coming in off that Kings loss at home. Canucks some good performances lately but on a B2B. Demko projected in net which is a concern for the Canucks.
Goal metrics suggest this go over. Offensive metrics lean that way too, although the Canucks are overperforming offensively. And despite how it worked out yesterday – bit concerned their offence can keep it going on the B2B here.
Tight one. I do lean towards the over here. I’m worried about that B2B and the last couple of Canucks B2Bs they were only able to score 2 although their offensive metrics seemed decent.
Just couldn’t fully convince myself on this one. If both teams were fresh I’d take it but the B2B is putting me off.
Kings vs Senators:
Ottawa are a better team by the metrics. Looking at the goal metrics – Sens offence drastically underperforming. Goals against is on point. Kings offence slightly over performing, balanced out by conceding more than they should.
Sens are decent little underdogs. So it’s a case of after that Ducks win, are the offence going to perform as they should be?
I’d love to say yes and back them but they have twice did a performance like that – Buffalo and Philly – then grossly underperformed following that.
Kings are a middling SCGA/60 team while the Sabres and Ducks are 4th and 6th worst for that right now. Yeah I can’t see taking the Send here.
Thanks for the tips on both games and betting Graeme. Successful betting is all about staying disciplined and leaving the emotion on the sidelines—not that I’ve practiced it 100%.
I like Sharks as a home dog. Nucks on a road B2B and a dub over a team way ahead of them. This is a let down spot for them while Sharks need division points badly. Over looks good too.
GLTA SD bruins
Liking the OVER for the Canucks/Sharks game too.
Nice thoughts on betting practices, Graeme! I don’t get too excited about particular bets winning or losing, it’s part of a long process. I do get excited when I can see that my methods of researching games before and after they’re played, are giving me good data flow. I like learning how to improve on that. I recommend always following up both winning and losing bets with a game data check, to see how the game was played and what you can learn from what happened. One of the best teachers can be a bet result that guides you straight to the information that you found/used or overlooked in some kind of haste or bias. As my rate of winning has gradually improved, the number of bets I make in a day or week has diminished. Self-discipline! We’re dealing with “SPORTS” here, where opposing players and/or teams try to physically obstruct each other when batting around bouncing pucks, balls, etc., where the officiating is not always ideal, and we’re supposed to take that seriously? Surprises and chaos happen.
To WIN moneyline: Winnipeg and Seattle
Winnipeg is on a good roll, has a good scheduling situation, has had struggles against good teams, is rested, and Chicago is an opportunity to collect important points. I don’t see a reason for the Jets to slack off, and I can’t see how Chicago is ready to start a climb out of the basement of the league, the way they’ve been playing.
Seattle needs points, is playing quite well. Anaheim is the league’s most penalized team and they have the most “goals against” in the league. Seattle’s scheduling look-ahead is just more reason for confidence.
I know exactly what you mean. This year I feel the advanced metrics are clicking for me a lot more than previous years, and I get great joy looking back at results, and my notes from the metrics and seeing time and time again the data matching up with what happened in the game. Especially when it comes to finding those games where an underperforming offense will get the job done etc.
and yeah unfortunately a lot of people just don’t understand sports and the variance of it. I still remember last season when I think we had went 7-0 over 3 days and then the next day we went 2-1 and I had an e-mail from someone asking why the bet lost. And they couldn’t comprehend the fact that we had lost a bet. I think they had just signed up and thought we were just giving winners every single day.
We get like thousands of new visitors every day etc so it’s why occasionally I’ll do little PSAs like that. Always like to take time to try and help educate people etc so they can be smarter bettors down the road and because I know many of them just don’t understand that losses happene tc.
I have made 1 bet on the Devils to win in their last 15 games. Guess which game it was? Thats betting on the NHL in a nutshell this season so far for me 😉
Shitty Odds
Wild ML (i didn’t do a bet and watched soccer)
Jets ML (maybe i do live betting on jets when odds go up for them)
Kraken ML (no)
Vancouver – San Jose no data for now
My favorit bet:
Ottawa ML
If you ask me why, look at the (possible) goalies.
Ottawa coming with Talbot bringing them possible value. All other shitty odd games have the better goalies on their side too.
The point why low odds are bad is about the money you lose in relation to the money you can gain. Even if I tipp all games right, I prefer just to bet on those with odds where I can gain more than lose.
hello! good job with the intro! i think most of us tried to win back a loss that we thinked it was “unfair”. and from there one cant think clearly. thats betting. sometimes a day with no losing money, its a win.
Yeah it’s easy to fall into that trap. And not even just losing bets – I find when people have a winning day, they’re more likely to make bets they wouldn’t make the next day just due to extra confidence etc. It’s best to not let previous bets results affect your betting pattern in that manner.
yes! good point!