Written by Scott on Wednesday, November 29th, 2023
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10 games yesterday. We had 2 tips and went 2-0.
I had the Devils to win in regulation and they did but this was incredibly close. The Isles were up 4-2 after the 2nd and then Hughes and Hischier both scored to tie it and Lazar scored with 23 seconds left to take the lead and the 5-4 win.
Also had the Canucks to win in regulation against the Ducks and they did 3-1. Boeser scored twice for his league leading 17th.
The Leafs beat the Panthers 2-1 in a shootout. The Oilers won their 3rd straight when they beat the Knights 5-4 in a shootout and the Wild won 3-1 against the Blues snapping their 7 game losing skid.
A nice slower night with only 3 games.
Canadiens vs Jackets Betting Tips:
No idea for this game.
Both are in the bottom 3rd of the league in most stats. Both are allowing more than they score.
On the road the Habs have gone 4-4-2 and at home the Jackets have gone 5-6-1.
Easy skip for me.
Wings vs Rangers Betting Tips:
These teams played once this season and the Rangers won that one 5-3.
The Wings won the Patrick Kane sweepstakes and signed him to a one year deal. Not sure when he will get into the lineup. But if the hip surgery doesn’t affect him like it did the Caps Backstrom then it was a great move.
They have won their last 3 games and are in 3rd in the Atlantic. They are 4th in goals and 13th in goals allowed.
The Rangers have gone 7-2-1 over their last 10 games and are in 1st in the Metro. They are 13th in GPG and 3rd in goals allowed.
Both teams have had good seasons so far so this should be a good game.
The Rangers are favored here and if the Wings were a little better on the road I’d take them no question. But 4-3-1 away from Detroit isn’t doing it for me. And if taking the Rangers it has to be in regulation but the odds aren’t worth it.
Capitals vs Kings Betting Tips:
The Caps are on a 2 game losing skid and the Kings have won their last 5.
Looking at the stats for each team it’s hard not to back the Kings. They are tied for 1st in GPG, 7th in shots per game, 2nd in GAPG and 4th in SOGA. The Caps are 31st in goals and 26th in shots.
I little worried about the Kings home play. They have gone 4-3-3 at home. But it’s the goals and defensive play that has me liking their chances.
But it would need to be in regulation and their home record shows that they have had 4 games go to overtime and 3 of them were losses. Unfortunately I have to pass on this game.
Columbus -130
Might be kicking myself not staying away. But Blue Jackets have had some solid games vs tough teams over their last 3 games. They play considerably better at home and the current price is not giving them much for home ice. Montembeault has been solid at times, but Montreal concedes a lot of shots. Maybe small value on CBJ at the current price.
Kings -215
Putting aside the possibility of this being a trap. Kings solid defense and Washington can’t score. So watch the Caps put up 5 here lol. The stats are just too heavy in the Kings favor in my opinion. They should probably be priced even higher when I think about it. Which is why I’m still willing to make a play even if the crap the bed against a team they should easily beat on paper.
Washington goal totals had ticked up before the last two games to be fair. But the underlying stats at 5 on 5 from those games (CorsiFor%, ShotsFor%, XGF, Scoring Chances For %) indicate maybe they’ve been a tad fortunate. The recent regression ( 1 goal over the last two games) could indicate a possible return to form. Kings home record being underwhelming could keep them focused and on track here.
No Dylan Larkin for Detroit today and they play tomorrow as well. But I don’t like how high the price is on the Rangers so I don’t see much value in my opinion.
To WIN moneyline: LA
Full game UNDER 7.0: Caps/Kings
Lean only: WIN moneyline: Montreal
Montreal’s setup of having had 3 days off while Columbus has had 1 day off after a back-to-back, look good for Montreal, but the Habs low scoring rate is a problem, so I may skip that. If they want this, they can win. In the last 10 games of each team combined, 12 of 20 were 1-goal differentials, so I have no confidence in a big Montreal win.
LA has the benefit of 3 days off and Washington simply can’t score much. Washington scored once against San Jose and were shutout against the Oilers, who are famous for having a Swiss cheese defense regardless of their scoring rate. The problem here is two very good defenses and LA will probably not be on high motivation here, just out for a regular game. A 3-1 or 4-1 LA win seems likely, but I’m off the puckline. It’s Wednesday, low LA motivation, non-Conference, low penalty rates. I don’t see this going 7-2 for LA. If they get a lead, they’ll probably protect it against a team on a long-term fade.