Written by Scott on Wednesday, November 2nd, 2016
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Rough night last night for us
The Leafs beat the Oilers 3-2 in OT. McDavid and Matthews were both held pointless but Nazem Kadri scored twice for the Leafs. The Sabres beat the Wild 2-1 to end the Wilds streak at home.
The Ducks beat the Kings 4-0 and for the Kings this was the 3rd straight game where they were shutout. The Rangers pounded the Blues 5-0 and this was Lundqvist’s 60th career shutout. It was a great night of hockey in the end.
Only 3 games tonight and only 1 tip. But game 7 of the World Series takes place. I personally want the Cubs to win as it would be their first World Series win in 108 years and the first time in 31 years that a team came back to win the Series after being down 3-1.
Canucks vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
The Canucks started the season winning their first 4 games but then followed that up with the current 5 game losing streak they’re on.
The Habs are 8-0-1 and ride a 7 game win streak into this. It’s nice to see for the Habs but we can’t forget how last season started and finished for them. The opened with a 9-0 run and that streak was ended by the Canucks and the Price injury that followed started the mess that was their season.
But with Montreal on fire and Price playing like himself it’s hard to bet against the Canadiens right now.
Canadiens in regulation
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with
very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records:
1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
WHL Betting Tips(8-3, +3.53u): Kamloops Blazers in
regulation at 2.00 odds, Medicine Hat Tigers at 2.00 odds,
Bet the WHL at
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Canadians note that Bodog have been crappy at getting lines up lately
I’m betting most of these at 888 Sports these days.
Understand I posted this late last night. Here it is, one last time, for those of you who don’t look back on the past…
Having handicapped well over 2,500 “North American Big Four” matches, I have experience to say that it is far from simple. As a financially poor but experienced sports writer, who has written extensively about online betting for nine years, I feel compelled to remind everyone that the “picks” here are opinions. Knowledge is King and it starts with researching all the available betting options, examining rates of return, and using a solid bet structure. Proper bankroll management must be understood and handicappers must be patient while suppressing those needs for greed. Greed Kills!
Scott and Graeme are on top of things, writing about important aspects of the game, but the same can’t be said for some of the posters here. Remember, opinions are like selohssa – everybody has one. Some are a lot stinkier than others though. Please be prudent when wagering your hard earned money. Also, be on the look out for aggressive “bet every game on the board” types. A lot of fancy talk is “garbage in – garbage out” if the research is flawed and the betting structure lacks any semblance of sense. Cheers!
I have a reply for this which didn’t post cause of spam(!?):
Or you have a nice algorithm which shows you nice values with 50% successrate over years, so you don’t have to think that much. Just take some care for some injuries. The computer thinks for you and you won’t get emotional or maybe after winning/losing to much.
From my opinion handicapping is much gambling. I don’t get this point at all.
=> Every bet can be lost,
=> So you need a system to be consistent.
=> How?
=> Experience and science 🙂
=> Science for your opinions and experience to know where to start or stop
Am I wrong? I don’t know.
Seems hard to write such things with smartphone, have to correct much. All I want to say is even by losing you should start to learn to make things better – or stop betting if you need your money. Because there is no logic in trusting foreign ppl and waste money for their opinions without having an own.
A lot of people here (and pretty much everywhere) talk about having a ”program”…Do you buy those? ..Or made them?.. based on what?
I made a couple of research but cant find something really clear..
If you start to analyse a lot of games, you will get a bit frustrated over time, especially when bets lose. With some programming knowledge you can start to write a program for your analyses. It starts with collecting some data (strings) from websites to get the stats (knowledge) about current matchups. If you are able to collect the data you need, you are able to work with this data. You can perform your own primitive or complex analyses. For example “If a team won the last h2h, bet on that team”.
That’s how normal program works.
My programm is a bit different.. it also collects data, but it makes bets and looks for lose/wins, to learn what it made wrong or right. It also has a clue about ODDs. It found a special thought for itself. If it sees value on a game, it just tells me to bet on the underdog. It is now a bit to deep that I can’t understand why it picks those matches, but it seems to work okay and I’m still testing and my programm is still learning. It is based on my programming/ai knowledge, also from university and a private project for my own.
I just wanted to know: Can I beat the bookies? 🙂
Yeah as Alanson said it’s all about collecting data and analyzing it. There can be a LOT of data however and you never know what’s important or what may not factor in etc. For example most betting systems would say Oilers would beat the Senators on Sunday or at least be strong favourites – but most betting systems would be unable to factor in the Anderson factor.
If it’s something you want to do I’d start very basic using historical data and try and fine tune a system. For example I’d come up with a theory and then apply it to the 15/16 season fine-tuning it as I go along or I’d look for trends and see if it’s profitable to bet on them.
Just as a very basic example:
– Theory that “Teams do better on the 2nd game of a back to back”.
– Run through the data see what the results are and figure out where the odds would be profitable to bet on based on that.
– Run through it again with different factors and see how that affects things. For example if they win on the first B2B or if they lose on the first B2B or if the first goes to OT etc – how does that affect things? What about the same goalie in both games? Any injuries that would affect the result?
It’s very basic but that’s a good way to get started.
Thanks. Appreciate the answers. Will start to collect my own data
Hi Alanson,
Where are you located – Calgary Canada here.
My hope is that casual bettors will understand that practices like betting on ten games on one night, making five different bets on one game, chasing bad bets with worse ones, and always trying to hit the “big payday” are poor handicapping methods.
If the goal is wining 51% of the time – algorithm’s are known to be helpful. I trust my eyeball test and recent performance model more than projected numbers. They are considered but they are one of many components that make up the final decision.
Successful sports betting is all head and zero heart. Never let your emotions soar too high or drop too low. Proper research, while normally tedious, feeds the brain. There is no substitute for knowledge and every ounce earned needs to be weighed by priority during the decision making process. It’s like making the ultimate pizza pie. There are a lot of ingredients that need to be properly measured so one or two of them don’t over-power the rest = ruining the pie.
Agree that injuries are a component that need to be researched and considered. However, unless the injury is to stud starting goaltender (Carey Price) how much impact injuries have has to be looked at on a case by case basis. Players sitting in the press box, or called up from the minors leagues, should be “hungry” when they get a shot at playing due to injuries. It makes sense as they want to stay with the “big club”. Also, injury reports can be a little fishy when it comes to full details. Bergeron wasn’t a factor on the scoresheet but he played last night (REG PP SH time) after all the talk that he was out.
Cheers!
I’m from Germany.. (see my english mistakes :)) far, far away. Yeah you should be right, you got your points. I’m just thinking that people should learn from losing to do better! That’s how I started and I think many others too. A natural way of learning how to bet with all those points you’ve learned by losing. I experienced also in betting groups that there are a lot of people who cant control their betting behaviour. Sometimes I think they don’t want to win. But they believe in winning high odd combos or kind of emotional picks. Sometimes they win and feel like “kings”, but most time they lose, do a pause and repeat…
Yeah we tell people a lot throughout the season – don’t just blindly follow us. Hockey is one of the most volatile sports in terms of betting that there is as it’s one sport where the worst team can beat the best team on any given night. You’re going to lose a LOT of bets even if you’re a winner. It’s important for people to make their own decisions and know WHY it lost etc and learn from that.
I will say though that I find the commenters on here are great. Win or lose they’re back the following night and many of the people commenting were here last year too. So it’s cool to see that and see input/opinions from people even if they’re having losing weeks etc. We follow a LOT of forums etc for betting tips and one common thing is you see people posting their winning tips then soon as they start losing they disappear.
Learning from losses helps soften the financial hit. It’s always good to look over winners and losers once the last game of the night ends. Identify what you did right with the winners and what you did wrong with the losers = memory bank stash.
75% percent for me last night, but win 3.17 units.
After i read here about Parise absence a make a little combo with Sabres, Caps, Blackhawks and Ducks and…another win.
https://postimg.org/image/ujnf0o9p1/
For tonight my picks are Habs, Flyers and Ducks.
As I can watch your screenshot you bet every match in regular time, you always do? (hope guess, as I don´t know Rumanian… 😛 )
Yes, i bet in regular time. Occasional i bet including OT and shootout, but this happened very rarely and i specify this in my posts. In my opinion, after regular time is some kind of lottery and i hate lottery.:))
I´m newbie betting so I´m learning, betting most of the time in regular has been profitable for you? I know that betting today MTL in ML is not worth it and in other hand OT & shootout is a flip coin, but still you have 50% of winning probability. If you bet on ML what odds are best for you? SD Bruins for instance has posted he no bets less than -125
Until now is profitable. Even with 2 from 4 i recover my money. A odd under 1.8 become unattractive for me. I prefer odds over 2.
I really appreciate, Thanks for sharing!
2-2 last night, first loss in a week but only -.21 units. Back at it again tonight with the Habs in regulation AND the Under in that game. I also like the Over in the Flyers/Red Wings game.
@BlueLineBets on Twitter
How about lightning last night, as I stated. Alot of negative thoughts on that one. It’s off topic of hockey, but I’ll say this, indians tonight!
Booooo, Cubs finish the comeback tonight!
@BlueLineBets on Twitter
We will see, just like tampa bay had no chance last night. You gotta bet against the public to win. I’m taking indians -1.5
This is one where I think the public is right, but I won’t be placing a bet anyway, I’m a Cubs fan so I just want to see them win!
I’m a dodgers fan, I put 200$ on Cubs to win that series at game 6. Bet where the money is. When was the last time the Cubs asked to pay your power bill lol
Ha. Cubbies win!
These hockey teams pull out of their ruts and break the loosing streaks, gotta watch for that. And get em as under dogs when everyone else thinks they can’t do it. Pay attention to the under dogs, not favorites. More $ in it also
that strategy certainly paid off last night with the Bolts
Tonight pick,
Penguins win %100
Good luck guys.
Simple win
Hey guys what online sports books WHL action?
What country are you in Tony?
USA
Bovada is your only option I believe. I’ve looked at most others and never seen any WHL etc lines. http://www.betnhl.ca/go/bovada.php However they don’t always have them.
Thanks!
Wow thank to everyone here for sharing all this knowledge.
Personally I bet often on soccer and hockey I haven’t any programme. most of time I analyse the stats reading more info and go with the feeling.
Today my list is habs -1.50 and Indians 1.50
Good luck for everybody
I like Habs in reg but the odds suck. I’ll go with u5 -110. Canucks offence is anemic-4 goals in past 4 games-and tonight they go against best goalie in the league. Habs have cooled down a bit in past 4 games, not scoring more than 3 in any game and they face Miller who has 1.74 GAA in 4 starts. Puckline is worth a look too at +130
I think Flyers dominate at home tonight against a Wings team that has not won in Philly since 96-97 season. Detroit has had a tough time scoring in past 3 games and missing Vanek will not help turn their game around versus a Philly team that has scored 4+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games. Wings Mzarek got yanked in last game after letting in 4 goals on 10 shots. Neuvirth is no Carey Price but he’ll get the job done against a Detroit team that is shooting mostly blanks. Flyers in reg +115. -1.5 is worth a look too at +205.
Pens-Ducks – these teams are bi-polar–you never who will show up. no bet, but I think Pens will win behind Matt Murray who gets his first start of the season tonight. That’s going to lift the Pens.
I would love to see the Cubs win tonight for sentimental reasons. Plus, their GM Theo Epstein and some of their players were part of some great Red Sox teams. However, Kluber is having a Bumgarner-like series so I won’t bet against him. I’ll go with u6.5
GLTA
disclaimer: I am an amateur gambler and do not pretend to be a professional handicapper. My bets are usually relatively small bets. I have reasons for making my bets, but do your own due diligence and follow my bets at your own risk.
what about a MTL/PHI parlay? too risky include PIT?
Personally, I wouldn’t add Pens, you just never know which Pens team will show up.
Hey guys, I had asked this question before but forget the response. I signed up for bet365 through your guys’ site, but how do you find the whl/ohl odds?
just kidding… wrong betting site oops
Yeah they don’t cover it unfortunately. Basically Bovada/Bodog/888 and Unibet
I ll try
Canucks Habs OT
The Canadiens blew their beginning of the 2015-2016 season unbeaten streak, last year in Vancouver. Might it happen vs Vancouver, again?
You guys have picked a lot of bad bets this year… even when you tried to play it safe you still lost… every bet ive followed from you ive lost so now I pick the opposite and have been winning !! Thanks 🙂