Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 2nd, 2023
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Well it was some unfortunate luck last night. We made a goalie dependent pick in the Flyers game, and Hart unfortunately had to go off injured early on. Granted, it looked like he was having a ‘mare anyway.
Despite going down, the Flyers were able to tie it up to 2-2 and racked up 40 shots in that game with 14 high danger chances. Alas they couldn’t get the puck in the net, and the Sabres took advantage with the win.
If Hart is out for a prolonged length of time, that is really bad news for Philly.
Good to see the Avs get back on track. Stars and Flames had a solid game and nice to see the Flames have a bit of fight considering everything going on in Calgary right now.
Let’s get right into Thursdays games:
Rangers vs Hurricanes:
The Rangerrs return home after a fairly long road trip. They host the Hurricanes are still kinda eh. At some point I really need to dive into the data for teams after a road trip of 4+ games and see how they perform on that first home game and if there is anything trending there.
Anyway I am just not seeing anything here. WIth the Hurricanes overall goaltending this season, the odds I’d come up with are pretty much exactly the same as the sportsbooks.
Red Wings vs Panthers:
Nice to see the Wings get that win over the Islanders and hopefully break them out of that slight hump. Panthers coming off that solid result against the Bruins. Not seeing anything worth betting in this one.
Senators vs Kings:
At a glance, a tempting one to back the over but this one is barely at over 6.5 and could go to 7 with more action on it. SCGA/60 is a bit low for both teams and the xGA isn’t enough for me to back it at 6.5 at that price. I would lean the Kings here but it’s quite close, and again the bookies have it right.
Capitals vs Islanders:
Neither team are really backworthy at the moment. Looking at the metrics, it’s a bit of a minefield. This is a fairly easy pass for me.
Blue Jackets vs Lightning:
Nothing in this one. The data isn’t there to back Tampa at the moment and things are actually fairly close anyway other than the Jackets goals scored. If they could actually get the puck in the net more this would be a good one for the over.
Bruins vs Leafs:
Right off the bat this is an easy pass for me. I expect the Bruins to win, but the Leafs still have that quality and can raise their game. The metrics are all pretty close, with the big difference being great goaltending from the Bruins, and a low SCGF/60 for the Leafs. There might be enough to make the Bruins mathematically an +EV play.
Wild vs Devils:
Wild come stumbling into this one. Slight dogs against the Devils who go on the road for the hitd time this season. I think there is enough to back the over in this one. Based on goals scored, Devils should be good for a bunch and their previous road games indicated they can do it on the road. Wild also should be scoring and all the xGF & xGA numbers are above 3.
Really the only negative is the Wilds SCGF/60 being below 3 at 2.96. But hopefully the Devils defensive metrics help that out. It’s not as paint by the numbers as my other over wins this season, and the odds aren’t the best, but I’m good with Over 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO. Boldy should be back which is helpful.
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -131 Odds at Sports Interaction
Everyone Else: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/02 7:21:21 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Stars:
Happy to pass on anything involving the Oilers at the moment. Looking at the metrics, not too much jumps out at me. Stars slight lean but I mean they just came off a big game last night. This is a very sweet spot for the Oilers. But have you watched them this season? I can’t bring myself to back that team at 1.76.
Coyotes vs Canadiens:
I mean the Coyotes should probably get the win here. Just based on the offensive metrics of them and the defensive metrics of the Habs. But it looks close, and the Habs have been fighting this year. But the odds are accurate on this one so no value.
Kraken vs Predators:
Absolutely nothing for this one. Nothing really jumps out from the metrics.
Knights vs Jets:
The Knights look to continue their unbeaten regulation time streak as they host the Winnipeg Jets. They went to Winnipeg earlier this season and won 5-3.
To back them would have to be in regulation though and after the last couple of games by both teams, I’m not loving that. The metrics don’t back that up either. Knights goaltending has been saving them this season still. Jets actually have a better xGF and if their offense is working tonight, they could get that win.
Sharks vs Canucks:
Man, the Sharks GF/60 is 0.99 after 9 games. That is sad. Their xGF/60 is 2.39 too which isn’t horrific. The Canucks have been pretty reliant on goaltending.
This is one of those weird games where I mean I think the Canucks in regulation is a fine play, but there are just some warning bells going off in my head. The odds are about 1.76 which just feels a tad low for me too.
It’s very close, but no play for me.
All these plays are pretty price dependent. If odds differ greatly I’d probably stay away.
Detroit-102 half unit
I have Detroit and Florida currently as equal teams and this has Florida priced as a significantly better team. While I do think over the course of the season Florida will eventually distance themselves from Detroit, I can only bet on the two teams at present. I do worry about the Detroit regression from their unsustainable start, but it doesn’t necessarily have to happen all at once or overnight. My main concern for tonight’s game is that we might get some regression from Reimer and that could make this game a tougher play to bet on. Still Detroit at home is worth it to me.
CBJ +142
I had the Blue Jackets as a 47.5 percent chance to win. I’m also now seeing Tampa will start Matt Tomkins in net tonight, which would down grade Tampa for me even further. Books have Columbus currently priced at odds of about 41 percent. At that price of value I’m willing to risk a full unit play on this albeit the chance it may come back to burn me.
Boston -110 half unit
Boston opened -118 and has been bet down to Toronto favored on the road. At that price this game went from a stay away, to an auto play on Boston. Boston doesn’t have the goaltending issues Toronto currently does and is at home. They should be slight favorites.
Sea -120 half unit
Value play.
SJ +188 half unit.
This is also just simply a value play if you can stomach the odds of it more than likely crashing and burning. Sharks are playing historically bad. But the books are begging someone to take the Sharks. I currently have Vancouver ranked 14th at about half a percent better than an average team. Vancouver is being priced at -230 up from where they opened at -218 here on the road. So at the current price Vancouver is about 70 percent chance to win the game. With a 10 percent swing for home ice that would be Vancouver 80 percent at home. So if you’re comfortable laying -400 at home you would be comfortable laying a top team like Colorado or Vegas at home -600. And typically NHL lines just don’t get that high. Still I don’t recommend betting them everyday, only when you can stomach them. There’s a reason why they are begging you to take their garbage.
Your thoughts on the games are always good. Wish I had the time to do that. Very much appreciated!
Thanks man. I try my hardest to use the forum to explain the plays I’m personally making so if anyones curious as to why, they can at least see the logic behind the play. Then decide for themselves whether they agree or not. In gambling most people tend to be very results driven and understandably so. No one likes pissing away their hard earned cash.
It does take time and your right I think it’s the biggest thing that holds most people back from handicapping. It’s just impossible for most people to dedicate the time to it with their schedules and obligations. Which is a shame because I think there’s probably tons of people with smart opinions or think about games from a different perspective that I could learn from, that visit the site.
I think that also goes to show the tremendous amount of work and energy Scott and Graeme put into it on a daily basis. By posting everyday and doing a write up on every single game whether they have a play on it or not is an amazing level of commitment. Which doesn’t include the amount of time spent pouring over the stats and trying to figure out what’s relevant and what’s just noise. Most of the write ups where they incorporated metrics made me go and search out sites with advanced metrics and try to learn about it as well. Most times I look forward to hearing their thoughts on every game more than what the actual play is if that make sense. Because they do it in a way that takes you through the thought process of someone else with a sharp mind who has put time and dedication into it.
I’ve also tried to learn about line value as well and there’s some good podcasts out there. It does have a bit of a steep learning curve to it though. I would say my handicapping now attempts to be a blend of metrics, line value, and the eye test. Though watching every game is too difficult for me on most days. That’s what I wish I had the time for.
That’s also where I think people in the forum could actually be of tremendous use for but probably don’t realize it. I encourage anyone who may not actually feel comfortable posting their picks because of possible scrutiny or whatever, you can still provide us with information which is more useful than any pick I’d ever post. If your watching a game and saw something or heard the broadcast say something you thought was interesting or relevant feel free to write that. Even if 70 percent of the time it may lead to nothing, that means 30 percent of the time it could be something invaluable that gives us an extra edge.
I also just wanted to say for my goal scorer props, I’m still super new at playing them. I only seriously started towards the end of last season. I had some decent success in the beginning and then it kinda took a nosedive. This year I started off bad then I’ve hit on a couple recently. Being new I think I need to reign in my enthusiasm and expectations a bit so try to bear with me. I don’t know if I’ll be successful at it by my main goal would be to figure out a little more consistency. I lost on the two I played tonight but I don’t think that was my biggest mistake.
Tkachuk didn’t score, but did finish with five shots on net. He’s scored 40 goals each of the last two seasons and is a career 13 percent shooter with highs of 16 percent. He’s sitting on one goal currently and his shot percentage is under 3 percent. So at +125 I personally don’t have a problem with making the play.
Copp I knew would be higher risk. The red flags are he’s not a big goal scorer reaching 20 goals only once. And he is not a volume shooter. Maybe it was too ambitious, but I knew the risk could be a zero in the shot column and that’s what happened. I landed on him based on the high value and where Bobrovsky has conceded most of his goals from have been the location that Copp has been taking his shots from. I dunno if this logic is flawed or not but wanted to try it.
It’s the same logic I used for Malkin +180 which hit and partly why I picked Kempe +180 which also hit. In my Malkin write up I said I picked him because I thought Dostal was starting and then got worried because I saw Gibson was starting instead. Well Gibson got injured, Dostal came in and Malkin ended up scoring against him. I don’t know if that was a fluke or not.
Arizona Hayton +220, which didn’t come thru, was the same logic I used for Tkachuk tonight. And that’s his Shooting percentage and Goal total are too far below his last year averages. Unlike Tkachuk, Hayton does have less of a track record in his early career but the +220 price I felt made it worth the pick. So I don’t think picking them was my biggest mistake.
My biggest mistake today was probably bank roll management. The loss on Detroit at home for half a unit I don’t have any real issue with. Though I will have to watch the game to see if there’s anything from both teams that would make me adjust my power rankings. Or if it was just one game in a long season and don’t over react yet.
The San Jose play however should not have been a half unit. I knew it had low expectations and yet I still put the same amount down that I did on the Detroit, Boston, Seattle and the Two Team Parlay. That should never have happened and I dunno why it’s just hitting me now. From now on I’ll be capping these at a quarter unit. I wish I had a better name for it as I dunno if anyone else out there actually makes quarter unit plays. But at least it will put them into a different category from some of my other plays I post. And I won’t burn as big of a chunk of my profits as I did today.
Tkachuk to score should have been a half unit play. But because I liked Tkachuk’s prop better than my play on Copp, instead of reducing the amount on Copp, I increased my bet amount on Tkachuk. I also was convinced on Tkachuk being due to score soon and let it blind me a bit as I wanted to maximize the returns for when he finally does break through.
Copp should have at most been a quarter unit or a for fun bet by me. Hopefully I’ll make better decisions on how much of my money I risk on those plays I have lower expectations for. And when I write them up they’ll be easier to identify and put into a separate type of category of riskier bets made by me. If I want to be successful long term, I can’t put the same amount of money on Seattle to beat Nashville at home as I do on Copp to score a goal.
Great post DeNapos. I’ve said it many times before and I’ll say it again – I really value your contribution here. I spend a lot of time researching, and from a betting perspective the majority of the internet is trash in terms of insights.
I’ve also said it before but one thing that helps me betting is actually doing the long write-ups and covering all the games etc. I mean that Habs/Jets game last weekend was an example of that – I started it off by thinking I wasn’t going to back anything. But as I wrote about it, the metrics all swung me towards the winning over bet.
While one of my write-ups may only be a paragraph in length, it’s as you said – basically my trail of thoughts as I look through a game and the data etc. For each game I tackle, I sit down and start writing with no idea how I am going to bet it (for the most part).
Cheers – keep up the incredible work.
I also took another two team parlay. Half Unit.
Payout is -101
Edmonton OVER team total 2.5 (-230)
and
Washington UNDER team total 3.5 (-255)
I put some play money on Vancouver to WIN moneyline. The risk here is possibly that Vancouver offense takes it easy. They won’t take the night fully off; they have no reason to, they need points, are playing very well, the Division is competitive, they play Dallas and Edmonton coming up, they have enough “rest” space in the schedule right now, and there’s a good vibe with the Canucks.
And with San Jose scoring either 1 goal or Zero goals in 8 of 9 games played so far, being considerably out-shot in most games, a very weak powerplay and low scoring%, this is a Canucks game to smartly put in the bank. No big flash, just but WIN it.
I think the added real risk is moving into the Puckline range in games like this. It could go 7-1 or 4-1 or 3-1 or 3-2, who knows. Only ONE of San Jose’s 9 losses was a 1-goal differential, and 4 of 6 Canuck wins were by on the puckline. Puckline is very tempting, but I passed. Demko is confirmed in net. Crap, probably puckline.
Florida Tkachuk to score +125.
But this is a simple he’s due to score bet. Which I’ll admit is flawed logic, that we should never use when handicapping a game. So here I am doing it.
+105 to +120 is his usual odds range so I’m getting him still at decent value.. Would not take this if not at plus money. He’s so far off his goal and shooting percentage average it should balance out just a matter of when. Still taking shots and getting minutes. Doesn’t mean this will be the game he’ll score but at +125 I see value.
Detroit Copp to score +430. half unit
Was gonna do a write up on why I’m picking Copp to score here but have run out of time. This one has a high chance of failure. Copp is not a huge goal scorer or shot taker so you may go the whole entire game with 0 shots and I know nothing is more frustrating when taking goal scorers. Would not take this unless you are factoring in low expectations. I’m making this play based on new data I’m tryna incorporate and it may be flawed cuz I have not done very many this way.