Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 2nd, 2024
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No tips yesterday.
The Stars goaltending was lit up big in the European game, with the Panthers running out 6-4 winners. Islanders had quite the battle with the Sabres but their offense showed up.
And hopefully you didn’t back the Devils based on those two games, as they got thumped by Calgary yesterday.
We move on to the usual big Saturday slate. Little bit late today as I was invested in the F1 sprint. FIA totally rigging shit for McLaren. Nice to see Checo’s performance though.
Flyers vs Bruins:
These two just played so I’m pretty happy to pass. Quick glance at the metrics, Corsi & Fenwick is close. Man it’s all very close, seems close to a 50/50 game. Maybe slight value on Flyers in that regard.
Kings vs Blackhawks:
Kings bounced back from the Sharks loss and destroyed the Knights. Blackhawks also succumbed to the Sharks. Kings by the metrics the better team in basically everywhere, and the only concern is their goaltending. Also – the Blackhawks offense should be scoring more based on the chances created.
I don’t like the Kings 1.74 odds here purely due to this looking like a potentially good game for the Hawks if they can continue to create the chances. Just feels too much of a risk.
Capitals vs Jackets:
Caps won their last two in two really fun games. Jackets coming in off the Jets loss last night. Has me leaning Caps. Corsi & Fenwick overwhelmingly in favour of Washington. Their goaltending is still a slight concern especially against the Jackets offense – who have been running hot compared to their low xGF.
Caps in regulation is a no play due to the price being lower than our 1.70 threshold. Caps -1.5 has merit actually. Let’s see – Caps are outscoring the Jackets and performing just like their xGF says they should. Jackets goalscroing should regress, and with the Caps a great xGA/60 of 2.38 – they shouldn’t get the chances here.
The tricky thing is Jackets have generally been on a roll. So it’s a case of who do they perform against teams with a similar low xGA? Islanders have the best xGA/60 in the league, but they got 2 against them. Wild held them and they have third best.
They did put 6 past Buffalo who have the 5th best xGA but their GA/60 is brutal.
Despite some iffy goaltending, the Capitals defensive metrics suggest they can hold the Jackets down. And with their offense flying, they should hopefully cover this.
Capitals -1.5
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/02 11:37:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Red Wings vs Sabres:
Buffalo a much better CF% & FF%. Scoring more although xGF is about the same. Red Wings brutal xGA/60 and they are ripe to concede against. Buffalo it’s the goaltending letting them down.
I like Buffalo here, but it’s a bit of a high variance sorta play and I don’t like 1.95 here. if Buffalo had a higher xGF I’d take them at that price but their goaltending is too much of a liability.
Penguins vs Canadiens:
Yeesh. Neither team really backable by the results. By the metrics – man, I don’t even know. Habs should not be as big as dogs as they are but yeah I ain’t man enough to back them here. Or high enough.
Senators vs Kraken:
Ottawa coming in after last nights Rangers loss. Krakens last outing was on Halloween where they lost to the Leafs. Ottawa certainly better by the metrics. Goaltending been an issue for them.
I can’t seem to confirm if Montour is playing tonight or not but it appears he isn’t. Ottawa feel a bit of an uninspired pick tonight – they concern me in spots. I’m going to take them – but I don’t have the confidence to take them in regulation.
Sens incl OT/SO if Montour not playing
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -124 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: Odds at 1.80 Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/02 11:37:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blues vs Leafs:
Blues on a torrid run. If taking the Leafs it would have to be in regulation and the metrics aren’t overwhelming enough for me there, with Blues having a better xGA/60 and various other little factors.
Predators vs Avalanche:
Nothing really jumping out here. Both teams with a decent xGA but piss-poor goaltending.
Knights vs Utah:
Knights will be excited to return home after that huge road loss to LA. Utah coming off that big win over Calgary.
Utah with better Corsi & Fewncik. Both offenses overperforming – Knights by a LOT.
xGF% metrics as well balance out. The Utah Hockey Club are big time over-priced here it seems. Just by the data, this seems to be a 50/50 game.
Man – I have went back and forth on this one. It’s a big risk to back against the Knights at home at the moment, due to the confidence they have there. So that’s a big factor.
This has been the toughest game of the slate today. I have went back and forth on Utah to win and have even written it in here then erased it. I think the only two flags against them are their overall results, plus their underperforming goaltending versus the Knights overperforming offense. This COULD be the game to balance it out, but Knights seem to have an extra level of confidence at home.
Ahhhh…I’ll pass on it. Caps and Sens I’m not brimming with confidence on, so I don’t want to add a third like that. Plus if I really look at it, I think we can stretch Utahs realistic odds to 2.20 then you have a margin of error so not massive value.
I’m gonna be sick if they win that one though, and really hope I am off-base in my analysis.
Sharks vs Canucks:
After all that time spent on Knights vs Utah I just want to wrap this up and go have lunch. New UK bakery opened up here in town and I picked up some haggis pies to have. Can’t wait.
Anyway – one last game. Uh let’s see – Sharks coming in on a winning run. Vancouver coming off that Devils hammering for only their 2nd regulation loss of the year.
Canucks metrics generally nothing to write home about. Story here is the Sharks brutal defensive metrics, and of course poor goaltending. Oh christ I just glanced at the odds – 1.35 for the Canucks on the road? Ahahahahah no.
Food time.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
Units now: +6.908 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 5
I take Detroit to win @ 1.877 with 1 unit
Early Games
Boston -135
Not super confident in Boston but offense could get going in this spot. Both Boston goalies have performed poorly, but if taking a play on Boston I’d still prefer Swayman here over Korpisalo. Boston plays Seattle tomorrow so still have to see how they line them up. I think I’ll make the play regardless but might have been better to avoid it.
Chicago vs LA
Wanted to take a shot on Chicago +155. Kings had that long 7 game road trip to start season. Have had three of last four games at home and have won all three. Two of the teams were Sharks and Utah though. Then again Blackhawks sort of in the same group. Kings metrics in those games were far from dominate though. Vegas win was big on the score line, but pretty low xGF for Kings so dunno what happened there. Might be taking Kings some time to settle in at home after being away. Maybe they were invested in that world series as well? I’ll pass on Chicago, but I wouldn’t feel confident in a Kings play at all, even if they do go on to win.
Columbus vs Washington
Columbus played tough matchup yesterday. Washington has a tougher matchup vs Carolina tomorrow. And just got some revenge over playoff rival Rangers. Put up some dominant stats in that game as well. Beat up Montreal in the game after. I think Washington will continue to ride the high especially with this game at home. Originally I was worried they may look ahead. But seeing how consistently they’ve performed, I don’t think that will be the case here at home. Saw Graeme speak about CBJ scoring regression. I thought a similar thing as I made a play on the Islanders when they faced each other. It didn’t pan out as Islanders still struggled to score. But CBJ just one goal and then an empty netter. Blue Jackets shooting percentages were at an absurd level. Like Graeme, I also have same concern with Washington’s goaltending, particularly the last three games. Though two of those teams were Tampa and Rangers. Still the Montreal game though. Perhaps just a poor second period? I’ll take Washington in regulation.
My Plays for the early games
Boston -135
Washington in regulation -155
I’ll try and look through later games as well to see if anything jumps out.
Today I want to become a multimillionaire through sports betting, so after looking at these games I took a couple bets on full game OVER, for lower odds by dropping the total, and going the slow and steady route rather than thinking I’ll be buying islands and rare vintage guitars next week.
Two Questions:
What do you think of the idea that in sports betting, “patience” can NEVER be over-rated?
What do you think of the idea that in sports betting, it’s far more important to be using a system that aims to win consistently, vs any system that MIGHT win big and fast, even if it sometimes does?
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Full game OVER 5.0: Seattle/Sens and Sabres/Wings
Leaning Over for Habs/Pens, but there’s too much variability in those teams, especially the ridiculous Pens. As well, the Utah/Vegas game could be an Over but something about it three me off that option.
AHL: to WIN moneyline: Rochester, San Jose and Rockford.
Those three are playing very strong and their opponents happen to be very weak today. Rockford is on a back-to-back, but the talent difference is still very wide. Puckline options for Rochester and San Jose are tempting.
Just my opinion I had three potential Over plays I was considering as well. All currently at 6.5. Haven’t played any of them yet. 2 of them you’ve mentioned so caught my attention. Those being Buffalo/Detroit and Montreal/Pittsburgh. The third one I was considering and closest to playing was Colorado/Nashville. I liked all of them at 6.5 so can’t argue with Over 5.
Then you mentioned Seattle/Ottawa and while I didn’t land there on the game total, it’s because I liked Ottawa Over their team total of 2.5 at -210 odds.
Was looking to go the totals route as far as the late games go. The only potential side play was taking a shot on Utah, but I couldn’t get there.
Still unsure if I’ll play any of them or just monitor the results and see if I was on the right side or not.
Dude, it’s really hard to make so much money with betting. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I do like 2-5ks profit every month and books are banning me.
Also saw on DFO for Seattle they are saying Montour WILL be back in the lineup today after missing the Toronto game on Thursday for the birth of his child.
Also forgot to mention there was a thought Mark Stone might miss the game for Vegas. Was part of but not the entire reason I was considering a play on Utah. He had missed practice on Friday also for the birth of his child I think. I haven’t seen an official update on him, but DFO also has him projected into the Vegas lineup. Previously this morning he was questionable. Books also have listed props available for him. So it’s looking like he will play.