Written by Graeme on Friday, November 3rd, 2017
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It was a 1-2 night last night.
The game I was most curious about yesterday was the Capitals vs Islanders. That was a really interesting one because basically any stat or metric you looked at would say “Islanders for the win”.
My gut said the Caps but there was just so many things going against them that I felt it was irresponsible to advise them.
I ended up happy even though I didn’t pick anything. It was a close game which the Caps won – but the Islanders were the better team. So I’m not left regretting not going with the Caps.
We won with the over in the Jackets vs Panthers game. That was a nice easy one which went over during the 2nd period with ease.
We had the Lightning against the Rangers but their offense came up short and the Rangers got the OT win there.
We also had the Blues against the Flyers and Neuvirth picked up a shutout and his 2nd win of the season as yet another offense disappointed for us.
Two games tonight and no tips. Just some thoughts:
Devils vs Oilers: This is similar to last nights Capitals vs Islanders game. The Devils are a much better team so far this season and the Oilers are playing extremely poor. Their lack of real moves during the off-season is showing up here and losing Eberle was really a bad move.
The Oilers are heavy favourites and the best mathematical play here by far is the Devils. Yet my gut says the Oilers take it. This is a very crucial period for them as we’re approaching game 20 which is a big benchmark for the season. They’ve got two big home games coming up.
It’s one of those “my head says the Devils, my heart says the Oilers” games.
Ducks vs Predators: These are the two teams I almost refuse to bet on a game when they’re playing as they are so inconsistent – and they’re playing each other! So not a CHANCE I tip here.
The over/under is 5 so I’d take the over there if anything.
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
OHL Betting Tips (8-5, +1.81u): Sarnia Sting in reg 1.65.
WHL Betting Tips (4-7, -3.03u): Lethbridge Hurricanes in reg 1.70 odds.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Devils ML
What’s mean ML?:)
ML = money line
team wins in regulation, OT or SO regardless of margin
PL = puck line
team must win in regulation by two goals or more
ty bro =D
Moneyline. straight up including OT
Devils ML and 1 unit on reg
Parlay
Devils ML + Preds/Ducks o5
pays about 3:1
GLTA SDB
Hey, SD
Am I missing something here? Jersey is by far the better team but the odds favour the Oilers; We know Jersey can score but total team goals are 2.5; Great opportunity to cash in; They
not a b2b…
I’m not sure why Devils are favored other than they are the visitor. I feel real good about betting on Devils to win. Devils are the better team on both sides of the ice. Even the hometown press doesn’t think much of the Oilers
http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/perfect-storm-as-taylor-halls-red-hot-devils-come-to-edmonton-to-face-slumping-oilers
Hey, thx for the quick response and the link.
Maybe the ‘bookies’ are sensing this is the gm Jersey ends it’s 3gm winning steak/ 5-0
road record; If anything, this gm can extend it. Perhaps I’m just overthinking this; Why look a gift horse in the mouth right?
Got to ride the hot horse. A good team playing a bad team and the bad team is favored? I don’t get it, but I will take it.
+1 on Schneider confidence
+1 on Devils being the better team
SDB I’m from Edmonton and have always hated the Oilers, couldn’t agree more on the make up of this team. I said before the season started and even during the season last year as Talbot and McDavid carried them that this was the most overrated team around. They rely on lumbering uncoordinated wingers (Lucic, Maroon, Kassian, Caggula etc) with no speed and a blue line that doesn’t have a top pairing. They are also a team that got a lot of bounces last year and that’s not sustainable either. As far as Lucic goes I always despised him in Boston and laughed when he got picked up the Oilers, especially for all that money. Even worse I’m cousins with Gallagher who is buddies with the guy.
Don’t really get how EDM is continuously hyped the way they are and are huge faves again tonight. It’s one of those games where all the value is on the Devils but seems like a game the Oilers find a way to win
Mojo, thanks the reply, I really enjoyed reading it. I hated Lucic when he was a Bruin. He’s slow, can’t shoot for shit and aside from an occasional fight brings nothing of consequence to the team. He seems like a huge douche with little upside. At least with Marchand you get a douche who can put up points.
It’s strange how things turn around so quickly. Last season you’d have thought the Oilers would be the reincarnation of the 80s Oilers this year. And last year did anyone predict the Devils to be where they are at this point?
What does your cousin say about Luc?
I grew up a Habs fan so my disdain for the Bruins has always been pretty present haha. Even saying that I think one can objectively say that team during its “glory days” was filled with neanderthals and classless cavemen (Lucic, Chara, Boychuk, Horton, Marchand, Thornton list goes on). The only Boston Bruin I had a semblance of respect for was Bergeron.
Last years Oilers relied so heavily on a 20 year old kid and a goalie who was playing out of his mind. And guys like Eberle and Desharnais who actually have some talent contributed offensively and added puck possesion capabilities. Now you’re left with Lucic, Maroon, Kassian, Slephyshev, Caggula, and Strome?! The common denominator in all of this obviously Chiarelli who seems to think the NHL is about building a team through braun no matter how slow or unskilled.
Gally knows I can’t stand Lucic and basically just laughs and says all he can say is that he doesn’t know if I’d like him if I knew him personally but I’d like him more than a guy like Kadri (who he hates). They are buddies because both played in Van in the WHL for the Giants and Brendan’s dad trained Lucic for years there.
Yo man o/
Can you post your thoughts a bit earlier today?
Or can you pls send them to my email (slyrecord@gmail.com), much needed today
All the best,
S
No bets, no leans.
We’ve entered Phase 2 of the season, Evidence of it being Tampa taking the night off last night. So teams who are leading their division are now not beyond resting key players, taking a night off, coasting through the exercise with no regard to the result. The Rangers are garbage, Tampa I did expect to win at home. Beware Phase 2, make sure your teams are rested and be doubly careful if they’re division leaders facing crap teams. Pittsburgh did this last year, it always happens every year.
did you watch the tampa game ? they didnt take an off night and i think they shouldve won if the ref didnt call that goalie interference that was clearly not one..
I agree
If you like the Devils tonight the odds keep getting better. On my site, they opened at +145 and have moved to +160. There are no key injuries and Schneider is confirmed in net. Hall and Boyle are back to provide more offence. Hall is going to be super motivated since Chiarelli shipped him out to the Devils in exchange for Larsson.
Talbot will be in net for the Oilers, he allowed three goals on 30 shots in the Oilers’ loss to the Penguins on Wednesday. He has lost four of his last five starts while allowing a combined 15 goals on 160 shots (.906 SV%). The Devils are 9-2-0.
GLTA SDB
Thanks for the update!
Still debating it: One thing keeping me off this game is the shots on net considering home/away for these two teams. Edmonton has been getting many more shots on net than NJ, but not goals. I do expect NJ to win, but I’m expecting it to be close rather than Edmonton getting skunked badly. NJ has to apply themselves to win this, and they have a day off before playing Calgary, which is a fast flight of no consequence to their rest-time schedule. Almost talking myself into taking NJ here for the ML win.
I’m not betting the house here–I’m up for the week and putting about 30% of that equity on this game.
Statistically speaking it’s an interesting game: The Oilers lead the league in shots per game in all situations, and rank second in shot differential behind another crappy team, the Montreal Canadiens. In 5v5 play Edmonton ranks #1 in percentages of several key indicators: Corsi, Fenwick, shots, and scoring chances. BUT…the Oilers’ special teams have been miserable, scoring just 5 goals, allowing 14 for a net (but also “gross”) minus-9.
Add it all up and the Oilers are 30th in the standings due to crummy percentages: 29th in the league in powerplay conversion (13.2%), 31st and last in penalty killing (68.3%), 31st in shooting percentage (5.8%), 29th in PDO (.952)
They are winless against Eastern Conference competition to this point (0-5-1) while Devils are a juggernaut. As someone said recently, don’t bet on hunches and gut feelings, go with the data.
SDB
You’re right – the stats don’t lie.
NJ has transformed this season. They’re almost like a different hockey club from last year to this. Maybe it’s the new lightweight Adidas jerseys enhancing their performance…….
The Oilers haven’t clicked as yet, but it doesn’t mean they won’t. But like your stats suggest, a couple of silly pensmgyuhbb
I’m still debating it too but if it takes a long time to decide than I probably shouldn’t or just bet a small amount. I keep telling myself, there’s opportunities everyday; I.e. Mtl@Win on
Sat; Go with your gut; This should’nt stress anyone out:)
Experience tells me to leave all bets this evening.
Heart tells me Anaheim ML.
This is a very emotional game for the Ducks because the Preds bounced them in the playoffs. Even with Getzlaf out I think they bring it tonight.
I agree, SDB.
I cannot bring myself to place units on it, though.
Nashville are just one of those teams who can storm a game, or let it pass them by.
Quick note on the Caps/Isles from last night: I had one metric that supported a Caps victory. Last year, after a 3+ game road trip, the Caps were 7-0 1st game back on home ice. After last night that streak moves to 8-0.
Geir project 5/8
F. Forsberg to score
Good luck everyone!