Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 3rd, 2022
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No tips last night. We went 3-0 on Tuesday in a great start to the month.
I had two personal bets last night which came in after writing about the NHL advanced metrics for those two games on my Patreon (Made it public and pinned it to the top so you can see an example of what I write there).
As soon as I heard that Felix was in net, I was all over the Leafs covering the handicap in that one. Probably makes sense for the Flyers not to throw Hart to the wolves like that. They are a very goalie dependent team, and the Leafs have been threatening to light up for awhile now. Will be interesting to see if that continues.
Also on Sabres over 3.5 as I knew they’d get the goals. That was a sweet spot for them and they thumped the Penguins. Their ability to convert the chances they get is excellent right now.
Busy night of games today so let’s get right into it.
Lightning vs Hurricanes:
Hey look Tampa are actually on a win streak. Sure it’s over the Sharks, Ducks and the road Senators team but it’s a start. Hurricanes slight underdogs here. Canes are a team I have concerns about just now. I’m also really concerned about the Canes offensive metric drop in 5 vs 5. Their CF/60 has dropped the last couple games in 5 vs 5. They’re a bit of an easy pass.
Senators vs Knights:
Senators return home where they have been almost perfect other than the Wild loss. Haven’t been blown away by the Knights this season. Odds seem probably on the money. Vegas have some solid defensive metrics. I’d lean Knights to win but yep the odds are probably exactly where I’d put them. Slight lean towards the under but there you are purely relying on the Knights to keep the Sens at bay I’d say.
Red Wings vs Capitals:
Detroit coming off that thumping Buffalo loss. Washington…I don’t even know what to think of this team at the moment. Feels like you can’t back them with any kind of confidence, but you can’t back against them ya know? This is another one where I just feel the odds are pretty much dead on.
Rangers vs Bruins:
Rangers slight favourites here. I still am concerned about their inconsistency. Bruins – man, what a win over the Penguins that was. That was a crazy game.
Bruins are a team I am generally digging this season, but not so much here. Rangers have a better CF% and FF% by a decent amount. Both teams generally solid defensively. Rangers rack up a lot of chances but just aren’t converting like they should, with a brutal 2.33 SCGF/60.
Feels like Bruins can win a tight one due to their D, but I’m concerned with the way Bruins let the Pens put so many past them. That should give Rangers confidence too. Feels like Bruins should be good for a couple of goals here, and the question is if the Rangers can start getting the goals off the chances they’re generating.
Ullmark getting lit up like that was concerning too – although really Pens deserved all their goals. Not like it was on him. I don’t know it’s a big question mark over the Rangers offense and whether they can get past Ullmark or not. Based on the offense they have shown so far this season I’d lean no they won’t.
Bruins also showed that comeback ability which can be huge for a teams confidence. This is very close to a Bruins pick if Ullmark is starting. If its Swayman I think I’d switch to Rangers. They gotta start scoring barrel loads on a consistent basis sometime.
Jets vs Canadiens:
By the advanced metrics, this game is fairly close. Like a real 50/50 game. Both teams have a high xGA/60 and goaltending has helped them somewhat this season. Both teams goals wise performing pretty much as expected.
I don’t hate the Habs here. They’re going to be an underdog a lot of the season, and we gotta pick our slots carefully with them. The big problem for them at the moment is the high danger chances they concede, and then how many goals they concede from it. 2nd worst HDGA/60 in the league next to Arizona, 4th worst HDCA/60.
Winnipeg aren’t anything great on the HDCF front. 20th, and 18th for HDGF/60. But Hellebuyck coming off a big performance, and this just feels like too much of a gamble anyway. No bet.
Blues vs Islanders:
Blues slight favourites. On a torrid run if 5 losses. Islanders come in on a nice run with wins over some top teams.
The advanced metrics have things fairly close between them. The Islanders are scoring well and mostly deserve it. They’re reliant on solid goaltending though with a brutal xGA/60 of 3.66. The Blues however just don’t have the goaltending or defense it seems as Binnington is regressing.
I’m happy to take the Islanders here. If their goaltending holds up? Great. It’s a walk in the park win. If it does not? Well they still have the ability to score enough goals to overcome the Blues. The Blues concede enough chances.
Islanders win incl OT/SO if Sorokin is in net
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.03 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +103 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.03 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/03 9:46:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Kraken:
Minnesota coming off only their third regulation win of the season, as they beat the Habs. It’s been a very rough start for them although they’ve had a it of a tough schedule, and it’s been tough with them with injuries. Now Duhaime is out too.
By the goal counts, you’d think this is an easy over but I’m not too sure. Both teams goaltending is causing them issues right now, but both xGA/60 is below 3. So it’s a case of relying on them both to take the chances. TBF both have an SCGF/60 that is decent of around 2.9. Both are pretty good at scoring high danger goals and both have an HDCA/60 of just over 11 a game.
The Corsi & Fenwick stats though don’t really indicate the over for me so there is not enough overwhelming evidence to back it.
Kraken have racked up two wins in a row and that Flames one in particular was impressive.
Blackhawks vs Kings:
Blackhawks are not without Stalock which isn’t fun for them and they will be relying on Soderblom.
LA thumped the Blues before losing to the Stars.
I feel like the Kings should be able to take advantage of the Blackhawks goalie situation, but they are just too heavy favourites and I don’t have the confidence for them in regulation on the road.
Flames vs Predators:
Flames come in on the back of two home losses to the Kraken and Oilers. Not great. Fairly heavy favourites here. Markstrom I gotta expect will be in net for a crucial game for them.
Flames are just an overwhelmingly better team. When they lost to the Oilers, a large part of that was Skinner as I talked aobut the other day. Preds don’t have that level of goaltending. With Markstrom in net here, I think they right the ship. Most of the metrics lean towards the Flames here. The only real negative is the Wilds HDGA/60 of 1.49 which is solid, but the Flames don’t just rely on HDGF.
Flames in Regulation if Markstrom in net
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/03 9:46:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Devils:
On paper, Devils are like one of the best teams in the NHL right now.
Oilers however are on a tear. In saying that, this is a BIG step up in opposition. Now granted their best opposition by the metrics was the Hurricanes, and they were able to handle them.
Oilers offensively are no slouch here. Talk about an understatement. Defensively of course they are a bit more of a concern. Offensively they generate a lot of chances and they take advantage of them. However the Devils are similar in that regard.
One concern is if it becomes a shootout (as in end to end action and goals) if the Devils can hang with them. And while I am very impressed with the Devils defense at the moment – so many of their metrics are similar to the Canes, and we saw what happened there.
I would stay away from this one. Even if Devils limit their chances, Oilers are too damn good at capitalizing on the chances they do get, with the top SCGF/60 in the league. There’ll be better spots to back the Devils.
Canucks vs Ducks:
After two wins in a row, the Canucks lost to the Devils. No shame in that. Both teams metrics are pretty trash. Nothing here.
Coyotes vs Stars:
Coyotes with that surprise win over the Panthers. Stars are stumbling a wee bit at the moment. Vejmelka really stepped up in that Coyotes win.
Stars PP finally clicked against the Kings. It was good to see Heiskanen back and he is a good factor there.
Oettinger out isn’t great news for Dallas. He’s been a big factor in that team this year.
I don’t trust Wedgewood enough right now to back the Stars here. Stars have solid goals against metrics but it’s all pretty much down to Oettinger right now. See how that changes with Wedgewood in net.
Sharks vs Panthers:
It’d have to be Panthers -1.5 and not going to take that on the road. Sharks have also shown a lot of fight lately, and yeah the Panthers results at the moment are pretty dismal. No bet.
Boston +115
Concerned about boston not having Krecji but they have overcome other injuries and been able to manage. Assuming it’ll be Ullmark and not Kinkaid in this spot. Not concerned about Ullmark he’s been off to a great start. Bad game vs a desperate Pens team at home. but after getting pulled then being able to come back into the game after Swayman was injured is impressive and shows something to me. Rangers advanced metrics are impressive and Shesterkin looks to be rounding in form. Him out dueling Carter Hart was impressive as well. However he did only face 19 shots by that flyers team and there’s not a team besides the stars that’s been more dependent on their starting goalie then the flyers. Rangers haven’t faced a team like this Boston team yet this season when you look at who their opponents have been up to this point. Closest teams have been Lightning in the home opener and the Avs and Georgievs return in which they lost in a shootout but admittedly could have gone either way and were impressive. I feel like at this point Boston is a notch above those teams and is only an underdog because vegas has to make them in underdog. As much as the Rangers have won the stats vs the teams they’ve played, it hasn’t necessarily equaled wins when they do. If boston wins the advanced stats they win this game. If the rangers win the advanced stats it still wouldn’t surprise me to see them losing. Rangers win won’t surprise me either but i’ll take Boston at an underdog price in the nationally televised game of the week.
Ullmark is confirmed.
I deffo don’t hate Bruins here but eh – just feels there are better spots. Rangers are inconsistent but damn can they be an elite team if they get going. Shesterkin is rolling. Just one of those games where a few hours later looking back at it – I’m fine not taking them.
In saying that I’d also say it’s 50/50 on whether they win so hey anything above that is an +EV bet.
Agree with everything you said both here and in your original write up. I also at worst viewed it 50/50 and i guess that’s ultimately why i decided to play it. My bet isn’t so much as against the rangers but against the price. Also agree with there’s better spots to play boston. My problem was i developed a bit of tunnel vision towards this game and wasn’t able to really attack the rest of the card being stuck at work. I looked at it as if boston was home i believe vegas would just have flipped the prices. If we are looking at two equal teams and Rangers currently priced at -135, that’s about a 57.5 win probability which feels slightly too high considering the form the bruins are in. Assuming Boston was home and priced at the same number, which would be a good topic in itself, they are pricing home ice at about 15 percent. I don’t feel like the Rangers currently have that big of a home ice advantage so far this year based on home and away results. And when u look at how well Boston has performed on the road i feel like it adds to the mispricing of this line. Main reason i found value in the play.
Did you guys watch the Panthers game? Did you see how Montour played in the 3rd period? He literally looked drunk! Bambi on ice! After Panthers scored their 2nd, Montour started looking like he hasn’t worn skates before.
Don’t think Panthers are getting far this season. They’re not looking good.
I haven’t watched it yet, but I’ll have to try and check it out sometime tomorrow especially with only two games on the slate and one starting early being played in finland for the global series. analysis is mildly surprising as with ekblad out watching montour previously i thought he was holding up decently. Florida tried to roll a five forward first powerplay at the time which took barkov and tkachuk out of the preferred positions before bringing montour up from the second line to fill in. When i watched early on this season, Staal looked like the liability to me. old and slow. looks like florida is slowly realizing that as he now is 5th out of the sixth defenders in ice time. See Barkov scored which maybe he can start seeing more results. So far the only player that’s really impressed me on a consistent basis was Tkachuk and not just because of his early results. He looks like hes fit in seamlessly. Reinhart and Bennett on the other hand need to step up their play and get some results soon. They are still unbeaten at home in regulation and playing about .500 on the road. But I’d be just as frustrated and feel the same if I just watched them go up in flames in a game they controlled and conceded 3 in the third.
Good evening from Germany, 1-1 last night with o6.5 in Buffalo and no goal by Bunting for the Leafs. Agree with your NYI bet. The price is good for this.
Because of the home stats from CHI and the away from LAK I have to take the o6.0 in this game.
Player bet today? Larkin to score for DET.
Good luck everyone!
nice to see to the larkin play come thru for ya. props
Thx, mate. Pure luck in the end. I think that Copp had the same bet ^^
I really thought you’d be 100% on Knights today, and actually found it weird you’re not.
I bet on them anyway.
I got 6 tips today:
Knights regulation
Lightning regulation
Bruins regulation
Islanders OT
Panthers -1.5
Flames -1.5
Lightning.. come on, stop doing this to me! 2 days ago I watched them until they scored the 5th, thought my -1.5 bet was secured and swapped games, only to find out the last goal was disallowed.
Today they conceded on a power-play and screwed me again.
Flames feel cursed, specially when I watch them. I also had Flames -1.5 vs Kraken, and tuned in on my laptop 5 minutes into the 3rd period. We all know what happened then. Sorry to everyone who bet on Calgary 2 days ago, I should never have tuned in xD
I’m gonna stay away from betting on Flames in the future. Need to start making a ban-list for the season. Or maybe just start betting big on Vegas.
I’ll start posting my predictions on a daily basis here, while keeping track of them. And I always bet on my predictions myself.
The Flames issue seemed to be all down to that first period. It’s like they all decided to take a nap before the game, and woke up literally as they moved into the deep sleep stage. So they were all groggy and out of it. Just a horrific period.
Hey in regard to the Knights – was just one of those games where after looking at everything, I calculated what I felt the odds were, and they were pretty much exactly what the sportsbooks had. I explored it more and just didn’t feel there was enough value in them.