Written by Graeme on Sunday, November 3rd, 2024
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Thank you Las Vegas!
That was the game I was sweating so much yesterday, after everything I wrote and went through in relation to the potential Utah pick. As it was – it ended up being the perfect result. Utah WERE the correct value play by far, but they didn’t actually win – which was perfect.
We got off to a winning start for November as well, which is nice. Capitals made it nice and easy. If you bet the Sens unsure about Montour’s status then all good as they walked that one as well.
Glad I skipped the Kings yesterday as the Hawks continued to create the chances and converted enough to win in a shootout.
Sunday slate which often involves some B2Bs which can make things tricker, but we’ll see how things go:
Rangers vs Islanders:
Rangers generally been solid this season. Islanders on a bad run but got that win over Buffalo. I did say I thought their offense might come alive and do the job in that game.
Islanders much better Corsi and Fenwick. Rangers are scoring a lot though and that is on point. Even if the Islanders offense score to what they are expected – and I doubt they will with the Rangers goaltending – it’s not going to be enough.
The Corsi, Fenwick and Odds are enough to keep me off Rangers in regulation though.
Jets vs Lightning:
Jets continue their run and now return home where they had their only loss of the season so far. Tampa coming off that Wild loss. I’m not seeing anything in the data to go with a pick here.
Bruins vs Kraken:
Both teams on a B2B. Bruins coming in on a high with that big 3-0 win over the Flyers. Kraken lost to Ottawa.
I wouldn’t mind the Bruins here, but we’d have to take them in regulation and the odds just don’t point to that. Their offense has been struggling. The Kraken is proooobably a decent matchup for them, but it’s not one I’m loving.
Hurricanes vs Capitals:
Both teams coming in off big wins. Canes probably shouldn’t be favoured this highly, but they’re still the better side. Capitals is a gamble. Both offenses are killing it right now, but the xGA/60 and GA/60 stats plus the two best FA/60 this season and Canes with the best CA/60 has me concerned – meaning I can’t back the over.
Wild vs Leafs:
Wild been playing great this season. Rested, and playing a Leafs team who just played last night. And they’re at home. Bookies have it close to a flip, so right away I am liking the Wild.
Leafs better Corsi & Fenwick although the latter is very close. Wild scoring more, conceding less. xG is a bit of a wash.
Leafs have had two B2Bs this season and lost the first leg then won the second.
Feel like I’d be forcing a pick here if I went with Minnesota. Not loving it.
Ducks vs Blackhawks:
One of those where I have absolutely zero idea, so I go to the metrics which I don’t mind.
Ducks such a bad CA/60 and FA/60. Both offenses are basically the same there in those. Ducks – their goaltending is helping them a lot. Their offense should be performing better.
This is one where I’ve tried to twist the data as much as I can, to justify backing the Blackhawks here. Various team comparisons etc. But I just can’t find enough to do it.
Flames vs Oilers:
The Oilers are hefty favouries here. Flames stopped their losing run with a big win over the bookies darlings, the New Jersey Devils. Oilers without McDavid bounced back strong. Flames beat Edmonton 4-1 on the road earlier in the season.
I would LOVE to back the Flames here. One of those where without any data, I like them a lot. Alas, the data is strongly against that. Oilers much better Corsi & Fenwick. GF% is 50/50, Oilers better xGF%. Flames the only razor thing positive is SCGF%.
Nothing to back today, unfortunately. I do still like Calgary and if there were any data points that backed it up, I’d go with it.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
Units now: +7.785 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 5
I take Minnesota to win @ 1.909 with 1 unit
Good play today glad to see it come through for you.
Greame, November couldn’t start any better! Caps first third was insane. At one of the forum on my betting platform, there was a guy who picked 4 players to score from Washington and all of them came through in the first, which is ridiculous.
Keep on great work 💪
Ha that is awesome that would have been a nice win. Washington were great yesterday
Tampa Bay +116
Worried about Tampa if they take too many penalties. But they matchup pretty evenly in the other statistics. And another key part for me, is I feel Tampa has faced much tougher opponents. Looking at the start of their season and I’m hard pressed to find a cupcake opponent they’ve yet to face. Looking at some of Winnipeg’s early season schedule, and they’ve been littered with them. Combined winning percentage of opponents Tampa has beaten is 56.4. Winnipeg’s sits at 44. Going into Winnipeg and winning won’t be easy, but Tampa can pull the upset. Maybe I’m not giving Winnipeg enough credit, but I’ll roll the dice on Tampa.
Washington +230
I’ll gladly take a shot on Washington at +230. I feel their win probability is closer to 40 percent and they’re currently being priced down at 30 percent. I rarely ever do this, but “IF” they were to grab an early lead, I would also consider cashing out the play if the price offered was fair. Washington didn’t have to exert too much energy yesterday. Continued to stay hot offensively. May get a better matchup by avoiding Freddy in net as he’s out with injury. If it fails so be it.
Might have a play on the Edmonton vs Calgary game. My early leans were either Edmonton at -150. Or an Under 6.5 at -122. Still gotta actually look into though.
My Plays
Tampa Bay +116
Washington +230
Those bets were good, but it was not the best day.
No but in hindsight I’m ok with them. I feel Washington +230 was absurd price. The price on cash out wasn’t that great when Washington stole two quick ones and took lead at end of first. I knew they would have to survive some tough moments and they almost did. Still that +230 made me cool with whatever was going to happen in that game.
Tampa little more frustrating, but they still had their moments. Point left early in first after scoring and putting Tampa up 2-0. Also shoulda waited for goalie announcements, but thought they would go with Vasilevskiy not Johansson. Probably still would have made the play regardless, but would have lowered my expectations a bit. Still back and forth and Hagel had a lot of good chances to tie it at the end.2 empty netters killed any chance. Entertaining game though.
Got down on Edmonton at -160. Helped offset a little bit and helped the confidence getting at least one right.