Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 4th, 2023
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No plays yesterday.
That Sabres low xGF was a key stat yesterday, as they could only rustle up 1 goal against the Flyers in a 5-1 drubbing. Looking around the forums, lot of people lost money with that “obvious” Sabres pick and are losing their minds.
Devils on the B2B lost to the Blues.
15 games today. Yikes. Some games will have pretty much no write-up. If nothing jumps out at me for it I’ll just move on.
Let’s get to it:
Oilers vs Predators:
Oilers continue to be mediocre. Heavily favoured against the Preds. Neither team worth backing here. Over isn’t either. Won’t surprise me if Preds win but an easy skip.
Coyotes vs Jets:
Very slight lean on Coyotes looking at the metrics, and the bookies have them as dogs. Hmmm. It’s not like the Jets are beating teams of note. But then Coyotes either. I think there is value on the Coyotes here, but not enough for me to back. But if you’re betting it I would say it’s the right mathematical play.
Red Wings vs Bruins:
The Bruins come in off that tight Leafs game. After a solid start, the Wings are really starting to struggle.
Bookies odds seem about right here. Wings have a few solid metrics related to conceding goals. Bruins their goaltending has been a massive factor for them, but the Wings offense overall this season have been generally solid.
Lean on the Bruins, but not enough to advise.
Leafs vs Sabres:
Leafs should win, but they’re unbackable to me at the moment. No grit. No fight. They just look so soft. Looking at the metrics, there’s not enough to separate the two teams to warrant a Leafs bet anyway.
Capitals vs Jackets:
Caps creating the chances with an xGF/60 of 3.44 but cannot get it in the net. Jackets have the defensive metrics that suggest it could be a good game for the Caps.
I actually really want to take the Caps here, but with the loss of Backstrom, and Lindgren confirmed in net….actually, I wonder if the over has merit.
Let’s see. It’s set at 6. Both CF/60s are good and the Caps metrics recently looking better. But can the Jackets get going? Just 2.66 GF/60 and their xGF is barely over 3.11. But they did get the goals against Tampa and DAllas.
The SCG stats are the only things holding me back here. All extremely low and I have to pass. One of those where my gut says it goes over though.
Blues vs Canadiens:
Nothing here.
Senators vs Lightning:
Nothing for this one. Slight lean towards the Sens winning, but the bookies have it exactly as I would price it.
Islanders vs Hurricanes:
Nada for this one as well.
Flyers vs Kings:
Like the Kings here, but would have to take them in regulation. They’ve been playing well so far although a few key losses against top teams which is concerning. The good thing is that the Flyers aren’t a top team.
Flyers score the goals but the Kings score more and a much higher xGF/60. Concern is the Flyers have a better xGA but then their goaltending situation probably negates that. And they have a higher SCGA/60.
This ticks the boxes for me. Kings in Regulation if Talbot in net
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/04 12:29:05 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Panthers:
Blackhawks having a bad run of it at the moment altho tbf they have had a crap schedule to open the season for the most part. Panthers performing well at the moment.
By all accounts, Panthers should get the win and Panthesr inr egulations hould be teh play. Just a bit concerned about their overall goalscring at the moment, plus after that drubbing a few days ago, how the Blackhawks will perform.
Panthers are kind of on my wary list at the moment. Not exactly sure why but I just don’t feel confident backing them here – although most metrics point to Panthers in regulation being a good play.
Wild vs Rangers:
No play here. Rangers I think can squeak out the win, but the Wilds scoring ability is concerning.
Kraken vs Flames:
Nothing for this one. By the metrics it’s a slight Kraken play but the odds have it right.
Knights vs Avalanche:
Knights slight dogs here. That is interesting. Avs are a bit tough to figure out at the moment. I’d lean the Knights but the metrics are very close with the Avs a much higher xGF/60 and with their GA/60, it could be tough for the Knights offense. Pass.
Canucks vs Stars:
Dallas will be pumped they got that win over the Oilers with Wedgewood in net. They play the Canucks who are crushing it. At the price, I lean slightly for the Canucks but this will be probably the toughest goaltending they have faced this season.
Sharks vs Penguins:
And nothing for this one.
Just the one play on such a big slate. Unfortunate, but it is what it is. Enjoy the hockey.
To WIN moneyline: Rangers
Lean: San Jose reverse puckline of +2.5 (@ 1.45 or so)
Play money lean: San Jose to WIN
Minnesota is full of holes, and the Rangers are rested, have a good scheduling spot here, going home for 2 days off, are strong on offense and have the second best Goals Against in the league, with considerably better specialty teams than Minnesota.
Pittsburgh is playing flat out bad, they’re on the road, they take nights off when facing bottom 1/3 teams, they’ve been smug as F for years. San Jose just got whooped 10-1 (they had 3 days off just before that, after a 5 game eastern road trip) and will come back with a volcanic angry effort. Pittsburgh has scored 2 or less goals in 5 of their last 10 games and lost all 5 of those. I don’t see San Jose falling by a big count again here even if Pittsburgh puts up a few goals.
Arizona just wanted to post this separate because it’s close to start time. I also had this highlighted as potential value. I had value on Arizona at +105. Winnipeg opened -125 and Arizona +105. So it was right there. This morning it was Arizona +112. I was still hesitant to play Arizona even at a half unit. Told myself if it gets to +120 I’ll play at half unit. It went up to +120 and I still can’t get there because two things are holding me back.
One was if Hellebuyck starts for Winnipeg. He’s been super inconsistent which would normally be good for the play on Arizona. But he’s been credited 3 Quality Starts and Graded 3 Really Bad Starts. So he’s been either really good or really bad with no in between or consistency to his play. Opened the season giving up 4 to Calgary( that hasn’t aged well), 4 to Florida and 5 to the Kings. Then seemed to straighten out. 2 to Edmonton and St. Louis then 1 goal to Detroit. 3 to The Rangers in an OT Loss also not terrible and 4 to Vegas. He could steal one potentially is my concern. The second factor was while Arizona has sneaky solid stat categories, the teams they beat have been towards the lower end and besides Chicago not winning by much margin.
So while I do see value on Arizona +120 I still personally won’t play it. I would have played it if Brossoit was starting but I’m seeing Winnipeg will indeed go with Hellebuyck. Wouldn’t be surprised with an Arizona 3-2 Overtime win.
Struggling to find something currently with the big slate. When handicapping I found 8 teams with potential value but I’m not eager to bet any of them. So at current prices I’m so far coming up empty. But still can discuss my thoughts on what I thought would be potential value plays. Each one has turned into more of a stay away from betting the other side rather then betting on these. Except for the Minnesota play which was going to be a bet on but the price moved before I could get it.
Minnesota was going to be the immediate play for me and I was too slow to it. I had Minnesota priced as value at -103 at home vs the Rangers and they opened at +102. And that was before factoring in the injuries. Shesterkin, Fox and Chytil all out for the Rangers. However with the injury news the plus money was quickly taken and it’s now Wild -120 I’m seeing. Getting the worst price of it I can’t bet on it now. The only way I could recommend it is if someone feels like the Ranger injuries have not been properly valued and I can’t say that definitively because in MOST cases I feel like the public overvalues them when they’ve already been priced in. In this situation however with Minnesota opening as a home underdog and now being moved to a favorite I dunno where the true line for the injuries should be.
Arizona I mentioned in another post. I liked the opening value. Liked it even more when the line moved up. But am worried about Hellebuyck stealing one and the step up in competition for Arizona. Would not be shocked if Arizona won.
Detroit. I thought there was some value with them at home at +125. But the offense has regressed as expected and they relied heavily on the power play. The goaltending might be the next thing that regresses for the Red Wings whereas Bostons goaltending duo has a much more solid track record.
Philly. I had them at value at +115. They opened +140. Now as high as +158. I really want to take a shot at half a unit on them and will dive deeper. However the back to back and Cal Petersen who should be in net for Philly tonight. Once again the Hart injury impacts them, but has it got too high? Flyers aren’t a talented or deep team but they won’t feel sorry for themselves either. Could the Kings who don’t have the best group of goaltenders either be starting their weekend early and focusing on that Wednesday game vs Vegas? Kings could beat Philly in two ways though and taking Flyers no lead would be comfortable. If the Flyers got off to quick start the Kings could still wake up late and get back into it as the Flyers potentially fade. If the Kings start off strong, as they have been more recently, it would be tough for the Flyers to get back in it. The potential shaky goaltending and the possible fatigue could be a flat spot too difficult for Flyers to overcome. Unless the Kings of course took their foot of the gas. This one may be a half unit play for me without much else sticking out to me. Low expectations though.
Chicago. +170 at home now. I like Florida typically at home or when they are in a groove. Chicago has not played much at home and is 0-2 in a season that has them missing the playoffs but local fan excitement from Bedard. I still have to think they really want that home win. But they don’t have much talent and at the end of the day that’s what limits you. Im sure they didn’t want to get beat 8-1 by Arizona either. Stolarz starting for Florida. One game this year and gave up only 1 goal. But it was the Sharks. He’s only started more than 20 games one season in his career. He had two decent seasons for a poor Ducks team, then a really poor one last year. Chicago could potentially be a half unit play but the only real factor would be the potential greed on how high the line climbs on them. Another low expectation play and be prepared for the potential of them getting smoked. Not eager to do that so far.
Vancouver
Plus money at home. Playing well. Though I rank Dallas 8th and Vancouver 14th, this still feels like Dallas is being very slightly overpriced. Though I don’t know if it’s enough to actually make a play on Vancouver. It seems like people aren’t ready to trust Vancouver vs top teams with a longer track record of success and potentially get burned. Vancouver will probably be a big pick vs Lower Tier teams where they’ll probably be overpriced, and a potential slight value play vs the top teams as a dog. The +105 at current is where it opened and the line price so far is not enough to entice me to play on Vancouver even if there’s slight value.
Vegas
This is a close play because of lack of other games standing out. They’ve now dropped to -102 at home. I currently have Vegas number one in my power rankings and Colorado third a half percent below them. People could have differing opinions over which team is higher. But I do think most would agree they’re both top teams and highly comparable. Barring any reason for the Vegas price drop, getting them as slight home underdogs would be the value play to me. I would also say the same about the Avs if they were being priced -102 and were the home team. It’s not a prediction of who I think will win as much as where I think the value is. I don’t know why Vegas should be a home dog to Colorado currently. And that makes me want to play a half unit on Vegas.
San Jose
San Jose will always be here as a “Value” play. No one will bet them and everyone will take the other team as a parlay piece and in every other type of format. This will cause books to try and offload their liability by having you take some of it off their hands. I took my shot on the Sharks last game. Let’s say uhhh it didn’t work out. I expected that though. Anyone who didn’t this may be your chance. Sometimes you take a shot and if it works out great. If it doesn’t no big deal. Where it kills you is if you keep going back to it because you’ve invested too much and now have convinced yourself this will be the game. I’m only mentioning it because technically San Jose +210 “Should” be value. It’ll probably climb even higher if you wait. I also would not be surprised one bit if the Penguins were the team to lose to San Jose.
I would have preferred San Jose not to get whooped so bad last game.While the score line makes them a joke that the public definitely won’t touch, the public wasn’t going to be betting San Jose anyway. Instead now you may have a struggling Pittsburgh team potentially not overlook the Sharks. Last place in a tough Metro, Sharks the only team in the league without a win, and they just lost 10-1? Can’t dare get beat by them.
Also will Karlsson have any motivation to score against his former team? I dunno how much he cares about his 5 years there, and should be happy, he got paid a lot. I saw some really offensively low prices listed at some books having him +245 to score. Which is terrible value. One had him +370 which made me regain my faith in humanity. If you’re the type who likes to look for the extra little motivating factors make sure you shop around for Karlsson prices so you don’t get screwed. I won’t be betting him but he should have plenty of chances assuming the Penguins don’t ruin everyone’s 10 team parlay today. Maybe Power Play or an empty netter.
Haven’t made any plays but the ones I’m closest to making are
Philly
Chicago (really don’t want to make that a play)
and Vegas at their current home underdog price
win or lose the one I’m most disappointed in was not getting a bet on the Wild before the price moved. There isn’t much else I liked the same as that one and it’s now got me scrambling to not waste any potential opportunities in a 15 game window. Maybe something will stick out in the two games tomorrow.
Just wanted to extract some Ranger injury news from my other post which is on the longer read side.
For those who might not be aware, Fox, Chytil and Shesterkin all out with injuries. Quick will be starting. He’s been near perfect in his two starts vs Seattle and Edmonton. But I also know most people don’t have much confidence in Quick. If you still like the Rangers in this spot I would recommend at least making sure you grab them at even money or better.