Written by Graeme on Tuesday, November 5th, 2024
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It’s finally here. Tuesday, November 5th, 2024. The day every American has been waiting for, the day that could reshape our future as we know it. The stakes are high, the anticipation palpable, and the buzz electric.
It’s the biggest and most important contest yet. One that could alter the course of history, with people on both sides fiercely divided in their opinions.
Who will come out on top? Who will leave tonight as the victor? Whose supporters will be cheering in the streets?
That’s right- tonight is the night the Columbus Blue Jackets take on the San Jose Sharks.
Is it even worth covering anything other than that game? I might as well, even though we know all eyes will be focused on it. Let’s get to it:
Leafs vs Bruins:
Leafs come in on the back of two losses. A hard team to figure out this season. This is always a big Original 6 game. Edge is to the Leafs for sure. The problem really is their goals scored. Bruins are above 3 in both GA/60 and xGA/60 so is that a factor? Looking at the data, not really. Not seeing anything here although if the Leafs offense get ticking, should go over.
Canadiens vs Flames:
Montreal on a three game skid. Calgary just the lone win against the Devils recently. At 1.76 odds in OT, I am NOT taking the Flames. Looking at the metrics – eh, the price is pretty close to it based on those. The Flames offense should perform better, and this looks to be a good spot for them. I think their offense gets at least 3 here and carries them to the win.
Sabres vs Senators:
Sabres also on a three game skid. Ottawa purely inconsistent results wise, although some impressive GA stats last 3 games. Corsi & Fenwick a 50/50. With everything else – maybe a slight edge to Buffalo, but not enough to bet them at this price. I’d take them at above 2.00.
Hurricanes vs Flyers:
If we were taking the Canes here, it’d have to be -1.5. It’s…..actually quite close to a play. Marginal, looking at the data. I’d just want a better price than 1.86 as that feels like 0EV to me. Would prefer to see a slightly worse xGA/60 for the Flyers too as it means the Canes have to continue to be clinical. This looks like the potential of one of those games that rely on the empty net. In their 6 regulation wins this season, the Canes HAVE won by that margin all 6 times.
Very close to a play.
Islanders vs Penguins:
Islanders better Corsi & Fenwick. GF% is a tie, slightly better xGF%. Penguins however should be scoring more. This doesn’t look like the matchup for them, but the Islanders aren’t overwhelming enough to back at 1.74.
Wild vs Kings:
Wild are solid favourites here and have b een great this season. The Kings have also been pretty darn solid. Kings with the better CF%, FF%. Scored less though and conceded more, but creating more and conceding less chances. Wild just get the edge in SCGF, and no surprise a hefty PDO.
So the data here is telling me the Kings are a value bet. Unfortunately, the fact that they played last night is enough to put me off. I just have to err on the side of caution when it comes to a B2B, even if they have had success so far. Plus I expect Rittich tonight. So yeah – no play, sadly as if it wasn’t for that B2B, it’d be a nice little bet.
Blues vs Lightning:
Blues stopped their skid with a win over the Leafs. Tampa lost two in a row. They are just too erratic a team to bet at the moment. With the Blues offense being quite woeful, and yet performing at how they are expected at the moment – even with their GA and xGA, Tampa should probably take this. But the way they concede goals, the fact that it’s on the road, and I’d have to take them in regulation, makes it a no bet.
Jets vs Utah:
After their loss, the Winnipeg Jets have continued to roll. Utah have been….an interesting team. I’m going into this one hoping to be able to back the Jets but let’s see – Corsi & Fenwick practically the same. Jets scoring more than they should be by a lot, but still a solid xGF/60. Utah conceding more and the worse xGA.
I did like the way Winnipeg played against Tampa, where they were 2-0 down and how they came back. Utah like I said were a great value play against the Knights, so I respect them.
Utah can make for some erratic games at times, and are certainly a matchup for Winnipeg in a lot of areas, but it still seems a nice enough price for the Jets considering their form this season.
Jets in Regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/05 9:58:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avs vs Kraken:
Avs in a nasty losing run right now, looking to snap that at home to the Kraken. They beat Seattle a couple of weeks ago on the road, so sohuld feel confident about their chances.
Much better CF%, better FF%. Scoring more but conceding more obviously. However Kraken should be conceding a lot more and goaltending has helped them.
I like the Avs here. They are scoring consistently and while their defense and goaltending is a liability, I think this is a good spot for them. I’d actually probably prefer Annunen at this point. But we are seeing Seattles offense regress and they still have a way to go.
Avs in Regulation
Ontario: 1.909 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.909 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.909 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/11/05 9:58:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Ducks vs Canucks:
One of those where I go straight to the data. Ducks such a brutal CA/60. Canucks have sone concerns with their xGF/60. Absolutely cannot take Canucks in regulation on the road here.
Sharks vs Jackets:
And here it is – what some people are calling the Super Bowl of the NHL 2024/2025 season. The San Jose Sharks hosting the Columbus Blue Jackets – no doubt, a Stanley Cup Finals preview.
Both teams poor CA/60, Jackets barely oust them in CF% and FF%. Sharks conceding more and also more chances. Jackets offense running a fair bit hot overall, although only two goals per game in their last 3. Against this Sharks team though I think they can rip them up.
But those odds? Just too heavily favoured for me. Sorry all – in the biggest game of the last decade, I have to stand on the sidelines and watch.
And if you want actual election tips – I’d say Kamala is an +EV play at the moment, but you may want to wait for the early results to come in. The bookies have overreacted to that the last couple of elections, and then live bet when her odds likely bump to 2.60ish (we might get better odds than that but I’m being conservative). Not saying she will win or anything, but it’s an +EV play for sure. For reference, Biden swung from 1.48 to as high as 3.60 during that period. The key hour was 9pm-10pm EST.
I don’t like to bet on sports when there is a major social distraction, such as trade deadline day, Superbowl day, plague panic, and I already bet on Harris as soon as she became candidate. The all-Canadian team Flames vs Habs game I can’t read. Will the Flames offense show up against a defective Habs defense? Shooting gallery? A 3-1 game? Can’t pick a side, O/U or props. A pass day for me.
Can’t stump the Trump. 😁
Carolina Sebastian Aho to score +135
Carolina Seth Jarvis to score +170