Written by Graeme on Sunday, November 6th, 2022
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It was a 4-0 day yesterday with the NHL Tips.
Had the Oilers/Stars over. That was goalie dependent and Jack Campbell came through for us. Stars scored 6 there to help put the game over 6.5, with a total of 8 goals.
We had the Knights to win in regulation. That was a spicy one! The Habs fought well in that one, but Vegas were able to overcome them.
We had the mathematically sound play in the New Jersey Devils, and they were able to take that one in OT. It was another excellent and well deserved win from the Devils.
Finally we had the Ducks/Sharks to go over and those two put up 9 goals.
My biggest win though was seeing the Penguins lose, having not backed it. I was incredibly close to backing that one but the data just did not back it up at all, and the odds were gross enough to keep me at bay.
Three games today. A rather quiet Sunday. Let’s see what we got:
Hurricanes vs Leafs:
Canes on rest after that win over Buffalo. Leafs coming in on a little winning streak.
Many will be looking to take the Canes today. Their odds are decent. We already know how things look in the metrics. Kallgren in net for the Leafs. Leafs on a B2B.
Despite their metrics, I’ve had a lot of concerns about the Hurricanes lately. Yeah they come in with a winning streak but man they aren’t making it easy. Just two wins in regulation in their last 8 games with a boatload of goals conceded.
Leafs offense is starting to find its way these last two games, outperforming their xG.
I’m going to skip this one. I don’t think Canes in regulation is a bad play at all – it’s just not one I want to advise.
Rangers vs Red Wings:
The consistent Rangers host the Red Wings who are on a B2B, but also a solid two game winning streak. In saying that they are also rather inconsistent especially in regards to conceding goals.
Rangers are hefty favourites and the play would have to be Rangers -1.5 if taking them. They will have Chytil back which is nice at least, although without Lindgren.
It’s a bit difficult analyzing this one with the advanced metrics due to the lack of consistency. If we look at the last 10 thogh – by the Corsi, Fenwick and shots stats it indicates Rangers cover the handicap. Rangers issues are converting the chances they are creating. Low SCGF/60 and the Red Wings SCGA/60 isn’t bad.
Rangers -1.5 has merit. They’re going to get the chances. The question is if they are able to finish them or not.
Honestly, I’d set the line at exactly 50/50 as to whether they cover the -1.5 or not. And as the line is exactly 2.00 – yep, no bet for me.
Ducks vs Panthers:
Ducks coming in off that hard fought win over the Sharks. I liked the part early in that game when they were up 2-0 with like 5 shots on net or something and had conceded like 100 shots on net.
Stolarz was thrown to the wolves (well, Sharks) last night with 52 shots against. Mental. 22 HDCF in regulation.
No surprise, offensive metrics all in favour of the Panthers. Scoring less than they deserve while Ducks scoring more than they deserve. Panthers get the high danger chances although their conversion rate isn’t the greatest on them.
Funny as I’ve found it pretty easy to stay off the Panthers lately due to their dismal results, and with a back to back for both teams this should be an easy no play. Yet there’s something about this one that is sticking out to me as a good spot for Florida.
So one of the biggest issues for the Panthers right now is goals conceded. However while Spencer Knight has a 3-1-0 record and the quantity of goals he has conceded isn’t too bad at 2.53 – the save percentage is brutal. I dived into the advanced metrics for the 4 games he played but the results are pretty inconclusive.
I think there is just enough negative data to turn me off the Panthers here. I mean the Ducks metrics are bad, but then so are the Flyers, Blackhawks, Coyotes metrics etc and we saw how things went there. I do think I will make a personal play on the Panthers here, but I can’t take that extra step and advise it.
If we had more data on Knight beyond just those 4 games – maybe I’d advise it. But the responsible play here is not to.
Right on boys!!! Excellent predictions yesterday! Love reading your daily write ups.
Thanks Ryan. Much appreciated! Love writing them.
I like it when after a sweeping day you lads take just watching.Play wisely yes. Full control :)))
Yes sir. The boys are pros. Even on a losing streak there’s no sign of ever forcing a bet. I have the utmost respect.
Thanks – appreciate that.
Yeah it’s very easy if you had a big winning day to be over-confidence the next day. Or if you had a big losing day, to look to immediately chase. We’ve been betting long enough now that the previous day record never affects us.
And there’s never any shame in taking time off to reassess if things aren’t going ones way. Sports betting isn’t easy, and it can really affect people emotionally then they make bets based purely on emotion.
As a related note; I’ve been very successful at NFL betting over the years. This year – with point spreads and over/unders I’m really struggling for whatever reason. Down like 7u, and it’s something where when I look back at the picks I’ve made, I’m not exactly seeing where I called it wrong.
However for NFL player props I’m currently 9-2 (Well 10-2 now thanks to Tyreek) so I’ve decided to stay off the point spreads and O/Us this season, and just focus on the player props. No shame in it.
Well said Graeme. Your professionalism is both inspiring and appreciated.
Canes reg – Leafs coming off big division win over my Bs last night, during which they lost Samsonov. It’s not a short flight to Raleigh and it’s an early game. Leafs already have 4 points on the trip. Let down spot as they look forward to getting back to their wives and girlfriends. Canes are rested.
NYR-#LGRW under 6.5. – Red Wings are in a very similar spot as Leafs. 3 in 4. Coming off big weekend with two wins over good teams. Lots of excitement over anniversary cellies with Wings legends. B2B and early game. Rangers rested and looking for points after a humiliating loss to…my Bs 🐻🐻🐻 There’s no value taking Rangers even with PL, but I like the under 6.5 a lot.
Ducks PL and over 6.5 – Ducks PL great value here at -135. Cats are on last game of west coast trip which means a let down spot as they look forward to getting home. Ducks L4 o/u 4-0 total goals 9-13-11-7. defensive juggernauts they are not. 🤣🤣🤣
GLTA SDB
Red Wings starting Nedeljkovic. L3 GAA 8-6-4. I like NYR TT o3.5
NYR over team total 3.5 at -150.
Rangers are winning a lot of the Corsi Fenwick and advanced metrics, just not finishing. In fact their finishing has been so poor they actually rank 31st at 2.43 GF/GP at home on the year. Only Arizona is worse. When you look at Arizonas advanced metrics it makes sense for them to be that low. The Rangers don’t. They are being priced as if none of their recent form should be taken into consideration so I have to find a reason to make the bet make sense. Detroit is 31st in GA/GP when on the road at 4.75. Only team worse is Anaheim who those of us who’ve seen the ducks realize just how bad that looks. Next I’m assuming we’re getting Nedeljkovic in net for the Redwings. In just 4 games he’s sporting a -5.2 GSAA. Finally is Chytil is expected to play. On the surface not the biggest impact. But it strengthens the Rangers third line offensively giving opposing teams one more wrinkle to worry about defensively. Goodrow now goes from center back to wing. Gauthier a career 5 percent shooter with 6 goals in 101 games is out of the lineup. Rangers bottom six cannot have both Reaves and Gauthier taking up two spaces it’s just too much dead weight. Off the back to back and having to key in on three lines instead of two should add to the fatigue and opportunities. Game script says the Rangers will get more of the chances vs a below average goalie. Redwings are typically losing the Corsi Fenwick and xGF % battles. Difference is Husso. When he’s in net he’s turning those expected losses into wins. Can’t say the same for the backup. And so many of the Rangers offense is off their overall shooting percentage numbers. I have to believe this is bound to change. I would say Kreider most likely nets one. Third on the team in shots. Sitting at 9.5 shooting percentage. Career 14.8 with the last two years closer to 20 percent. Already has a respectable 4 goals so hasn’t gone ice cold either. But there’s so many Rangers you could point to. K’Andre Miller being priced below Ryan Reaves shocks the hell out of me. This was originally gonna be a two team in regulation parlay with the rangers and panthers. Then i saw Halak confirmed and I assumed Shesterkin would get the start. Still expect a Rangers win but the crux of that was the difference between Nedeljkovic and Shesterkin in case the Rangers still can’t get it going offensively. Still will prolly take Panthers in regulation at -135 as its own bet now as well as the Rangers team total.