Written by Scott on Tuesday, November 7th, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
There was 4 games yesterday.
The Lightning scored 4 goals in the 1st chasing Samsonov from the net ajd took the 4-1 lead into the 2nd. In the 2nd Matthews scored twice and the 3rd saw the Leafs scored two more to take the 5-4 lead. The Lightning tied it to force overtime where Jarnkrok won it for the Leafs 6-5. The Jackets vs Panthers also needed overtime when the Panthers won 5-4.
The Bruins held on and won 3-2 against the Stars, Beecher and Lohrei both scored their first NHL goals for the Bruins. Swayman is now 6-0. The Oilers lost the the Canucks again this time 6-2. They are 0-3 against them this season and have been outscored 18-6 over these 3 games.
10 games for us tonight.
Sabres vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
The Sabres beat the Leafs in their last game and have won 3 of the last 4.
The Canes won their last game against the Isles and have won 4 of the last 5. 2 of the last 5 games for them needed overtime.
The Sabres have picked up their scoring and are ranked 14th with 3.25 GPG and defensively they are ranked 18th in GAPG with 3.17. So they are scoring slightly more than they are allowing.
The Canes are ranked 10th in GPG with 3.42 and 27th in GAPG with 3.50. They are ranked 1st in shots on goal allowed with 26.
If the Canes can keep the Sabres shot total down then they should be fine here. But Anderson is dealing with a medical issue and will miss this game. They signed Halak to a pro tryout as Raanta and Kochetkov haven’t had good seasons up to this point.
I want to take the Canes here. I think that with them ranking 2nd in shots on goal and 1st in shots on goal allowed per game they have a chance. Plus the Canes are at home where they have gone 3-0.
Canes in regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/07 8:33:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
The Lightning played yesterday and lost to Leafs in OT. They have played on consecutive nights once already and they lost the 2nd game after losing the first back on October 14th – 15th.
The Habs have lost 3 in a row and haven’t had a very good season. In October they had 5 games go to extra time so they are able to stay in most games but are missing unable to win in regulation time. 3 of their 5 wins came in extra time.
Johansson played yesterday so it will be Tomkins who is 0-2 with a 3.62 GAA and a
.891 save percentage.
I’m going to stay away due to the Lightning playing last night.
Wild vs Islanders Betting Tips:
The Wild won their last game but had lost the 4 in a row before that. They are 9th in GPG but 31st in GAPG.
The Isles lost their last game in a shootout against the Canes and are 3-0-2 over the last 5. They are the 6th ranked team in goals against but are 31st in shots on goal allowed.
On the road the Wild are 1-3-1 and at home the Isles are 3-1-3.
Would lean towards the Isles but I don’t have enough confidence to make it a tip.
Red Wings vs Rangers Betting Tips:
The Wings are 7-4-1 this season. They started the season strongly going 5-1-1 but have gone 2-3 since. They are still in 2nd in the Atlantic and are ranked 6th in GPG.
The Rangers had their win streak stopped at 6 games when they lost to the Wild 5-4 in a shootout. They are dealing with some injuries at the moment with Fox and Chytil out and Shesterkin day to day with a lower body injury.
Larkin is day to day for the Wings and he’s a huge piece of their success this season with 17 points in 12 games. With him out does that give the Rangers the edge?
Quick should start and he has been good in his 3 starts going 2-0-1 with a 1.42 GAA and a .948 save percentage. I like Quick but he is 37 years old and his stats have been good but it’s a only been 3 games.
I do like the Rangers to win at home but it would need to be in regulation and 3 of their last 4 games needed extra time so I’m passing.
Jets vs Blues Betting Tips:
The Jets are 5-4-2 and in 3rd place in the Central. They are on the road here where they have gone 3-2-1. They are 12th in GPG with 3.27 and 24th in GAPG with 3.45.
The Blues are 5-4-1 and in 4th in the Central. They are at home where they have gone 4-1. They are 29th in GPG with 2.40 and 6th in GAPG with 2.70.
They played once this season and the Jets won 4-2 in Winnipeg. It’s tough to call this game when both teams allow more goals than they score.
Kraken vs Coyotes Betting Tips:
Both teams have had rough starts to the season with the Kraken going 4-6-2 and the Coyotes 5-5-1. On the road Seattle is 2-3-2 and at home the Coyotes are 3-2.
Nothing jumps out to me for this game so I’m skipping.
Predators vs Flames Betting Tips:
The Preds are 5-6 and the Flames 3-7-1.
There’s nothing I like from this game. Either team gives me any confidence in them so it’s an easy pass.
Devils vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
The Devils are without Hughes and Hischier. They were able to win against the Blackhawks but that’s not saying much.
The Avs lost their last game and are 1-3 over last 4.
The Devils rank 3rd in GPG but without Hughes, who is near the top of the league in points, its going to be tougher.
The Avs have been playing well defensively ranking 8th in goals allowed and 9th in shots on goal allowed.
On the road the Devils have been great going 4-1 but the Avs are a perfect 3-0 so far.
With Hughes joining Hischier with an injury I would think the Avs would have a good shot at winning this game at home where they have been great. But of their 3 games at home one needed a shootout and that was against the Sharks. Plus the Devils may come together as a unit with Hughes out.
Penguins vs Ducks Betting Tips:
The Pens are 4-6 and in 8th place in the Metro. They are 2-5 over their last 7.
The Ducks have turned it on winning their last 6 in a row. They are 11th in GPG and GAPG. They have beat some good teams over the 6 win winning against the Pens, Bruins and handing the Knights their first regulation loss of the season.
They played back on October 30th and the Ducks won that one 4-3. The only thing that has me worried about the Ducks is that 3 of the 6 games on the win streak have needed overtime.
With them at home and on a 6 game win streak I kind of like them to win here. They just beat the defending Stanley Cup Champs so momentum should be on their side.
If this doesn’t come through for me then so be it. I think they have a good shot at extending their win streak at home and the odds helped persuade me.
Ducks win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.45 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.45 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.45 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/07 8:33:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Sharks Betting Tips:
The Flyers are 1-4 over their last 5 games before that they had gone 4-2-1. They are ranked 19th in both goals for and goals against.
The Sharks have lost 11 straight. They are ranked 32nd in GPG, GAPG, shots on goals, shots on goal allowed and shooting percentage.
I would say the Flyers should win this game against the Sharks but so do the sportsbooks. With the Flyers record over their last 5 I’m staying away from this game.
To WIN reverse puckline: Anaheim +1.5
To WIN puckline: Philly
Lean to WIN moneyline: Flames
Need more time to find Over/Unders. The betting crowd may be jumping on the San Jose game to either go Over or Philly to win. I expect Philly to win the game, they have played tough teams and need points, and they’re rested enough, with 2 days off before facing Anaheim then LA, so they’ll want the win. I don’t expect another 10-1 result, but San Jose is a mess and Philly is likely to get at least 4. So the -1.5 puckline looks good with the -2.5 puckline tempting.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see trades happen soon with the Oilers and Flames, so while the Flames youngsters are bringing in new and effective electricity, I can’t bet Flames with much confidence without further proof. Predator’s penalty kill is very bad. Both teams off 2 days of rest, should be good for the Flames here. Connor Zary may become a points monster.
I generally refuse to bet any Pittsburgh games, but they have been a long-term team fade and the effects of fading have advanced quite a bit. Washington and Pittsburgh are now steadily mediocre-to-poor teams with no prospects for near-term improvement. Anaheim is very much alive and on a good heater, rested, at home. Oddsmakers have this wrong.
NYI -110 half unit
I don’t understand the line drop on the Islanders here so maybe I’m missing something. Opened NYI -130. Fleury vs Varlamov. Varlamov stats are due a regression and they are facing an offense that’s been playing above average. But Islanders play style and at home makes this a tough game for the Wild on the road. I’m seeing Horvat may be out which would downgrade Islanders true but that alone wouldn’t be enough to explain it and if it’s only Horvat who is out tonight not enough to justify the line move. If Horvat does end up playing, then I like the Islanders even more at the price.
Buffalo +188 quarter unit.
I’m not a huge fan of the play, with Carolina’s solid metrics and the proven home record. However we are getting into decent value range on Buffalo with Carolinas goaltending issues. Buffalo has its own goaltending issues and I would have preferred if Levi started instead of Luukkonen. This one is a bit of a stretch. Carolina may blitz Buffalo early so Buffalo will have to start the game strong and convert on the chances they do get. You could wait to see if Buffalo gets to +190 or +195 range before taking a very small play on them. It’s a bit of a reach for me and there’s probably better opportunities out there today. At +180 or lower this is a stay away for me though.
Calgary -134. half unit
Not a pretty pick here. Just a value play of Calgary at home vs a below average team that’s 1-4 on the road.
Anaheim +162 half unit.
This was going to be a stay away, but I’m not really understanding why the line has moved so much towards Penguins. It feels very public, as in Penguins just beat Sharks 10-2! The Ducks suck too! And the Ducks have won 6 straight! No way they are gonna keep winning!
They might be right but that alone shouldn’t justify the price we’re getting on the Ducks. If it’s public money moving the line I like the play. However, if it’s sharp money then I should have definitely stayed away and after consideration it might. If it was public, then at some point there should be some buyback on Anaheim and so far I haven’t seen any. I might be on the wrong side of this one.
Two Team Parlay. half unit -132
Tampa Bay OVER 2.5 team total goals (-255)
and
Buffalo OVER 1.5 team total goals (-375)
Would’ve went with a one unit play here but not the best conditions for both teams. Tampa played yesterday and perform much better at home. But they lost, which should have them maybe flat and fatigued, but not coasting or taking the night off like a win might have them doing. Also Tomkins in net so they need to rely on offense not defense. Montreals Expected Goals Against to Actual is soo absurd I have to think it can’t continue, especially against a team with the fire power of Tampa.
For the Buffalo total over, this is an ante Antti Raanta play. Buffalo in the road and inconsistent offense though. I chose the lower goal total because I do have a small play on Buffalo to win outright. So because of the correlation this gives me a safer play. You could bump Buffalo to over 2.5 for plus money.