Written by Scott on Saturday, November 9th, 2024
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Went 0-1 with the tip yesterday.
Had the Caps to win in regulation against the Penguins but the Pens came out 4-2 winners. Hard to believe that this was 95th game between Crosby and Ovechkin.
The games start early today so I’ll have to keep these short to have them out in time. This week Saturday is the only day where my wife, myself and our 3 kids are all off and able to do stuff, even my oldest has the day off of work. If I find I have time later and want to add to these I will. As usual it’s a slow night followed by a busy one. We have 12 games today and only 3 tomorrow.
Flames vs Sabres
The Flames have been limping through the last 10 games going 3-5-2. On the road they have gone 3-2-2.
The Sabres are on a 2 game win streak but they are by no means tearing up the standings. They have gone 4-4-0 at home.
Both teams still need to establish their identities.
Stars vs Jets
Hard to bet against the Jets right now. The Stars are a team that will give them a push but not sure they are strong enough to take down this Jets squad.
The Stars are a team that have to be considered one of the top teams in the West and as the season goes on we will see them near the top.
Flyers vs Panthers
Flyers are 4-6-0 in last 10 and 3-4-1 on the road. They are 27th in GPG and 28th in GAPG. So statistically speaking they are having a rough season.
The Panthers have been playing great. They are 8-1-1 in last 10, on a 6 game win streak, 4-1-1 at home and rank 5th in GPG and 15th in GAPG.
Would need to go Panthers -1.5 and the odds for that just aren’t worth it.
Rangers vs Red Wings
Original 6 matchup so should be a good game. Wings played yesterday so not touching them or this game.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
Habs have dropped their last 5 games and have looked like shit.
The Leafs played yesterday so I’m avoiding them.
Easy pass.
Senators vs Bruins
Similar records over last 10 with Sens 4-6-0 and on 2 game skid, Bruins 4-5-1.
With Ullmark back in town it could make for an interesting game between two former goalies from the same tandem who were arguably the best duo in the league.
Capitals vs Blues
Caps have been a surprise this season. Ovechkin has been playing like his former self. They played last night and this will be the 3rd time this season where they play back to back. They’ve had mixed results winning and losing the 2nd game.
The Blues are at .500 for the year and haven’t given me personally a reason to back them yet.
Devils vs Islanders
Both teams have 5 wins in their last 10 games and both are on 2 game win streaks.
They have played once this season and the Isles won in overtime.
Utah vs Predators
Nothing for either team here.
Utah 3-4-3 last 10 and Preds on 3 game losing skid.
Hurricanes vs Avalanche
Canes are on fire right now. They have won 8 in a row. They rank at or near the top for GPG, SOG, SOGA and more.
The Avalanche are still struggling but are getting some of their depth pieces back which will help them going forward and take some of the pressure off of MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar.
I do like the Canes chances here. But as I have mentioned before I see the Avalanche going on a tear soon and beating one of the top teams in the league could get them the momentum needed.
Jackets vs Kings
Nothing jumping out to me from this game.
Oilers vs Canucks
Oilers have lost last 2 games and the Canucks are on a 3 game win streak.
With Vancouver on win streak they should have edge but their home record of 1-1-3 has me put off.
Hello, I have M. Duchene for Dallas and T. Stutzle for Senators to score today. My bets for the NHL season started yesterday and will be only on players. I got only one player in yesterday so bet lost. Hope my luck turn today. Fingers crossed.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
I take Buffalo to win @ 1.689 with 3 units
Maybe Boston later.
Units now: +9.761 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 5
Okay, I take Boston to win @ 1.769 with 1 unit
Thoughts on 1pm game Calgary vs Buffalo
Leaned towards Calgary at +130 but not gonna play it. With the large slate of games there’s probably better plays out there.
Buffalo Power Play is starting to click as it’s scored in 5 of the last 6 games. This was after failing to score a Power Play Goal in the first 8 games to start the season.
Second Buffalo has gotten wins over tougher opponents. One thing that made Calgary intriguing to me, is that their losses have mostly been to the top teams. Carolina, Winnipeg, Vegas, Edmonton and Boston are responsible for 5 of the 7 losses. The other two against Seattle and Utah were both on the road so not complete shockers. They’ll be on the road here to Buffalo as well. So perhaps a better spot to take them would be next game Monday home vs LA. If they happen to lose today’s game there should be even more value on Flames then.
So I’ll go with smaller plays on props as I look at some of the later games.
Calgary Kuzmenko +300
10 game drought. Not a high volume shooter either. I played it but I’m still iffy about this one.
Calgary Weegar +600
I like the price. He did score 20 last year but with defenseman that could always regress. And he doesn’t have the track record of being a goal scorer. Previous high in his 9 year career was 8. Luukkonen has allowed 2 goals from the blue line. And Weegar already has 3 from this location. He also takes closer mid range shots,though he has yet to score from this area. Still a long shot but could have value.
Buffalo Tuch +230
Buffalo has scored 11 goals last two games. None were by Tuch. He could be feeling a little left out and teammates may look to try and let him get his today. Has gone 2 games without a goal, though assisted in both. And hasn’t gone longer than three games without a goal yet this season.
There was four other players I considered but ultimately cut. Tage Thompson has scored in two straight. But is still capable of getting one today and has already scored in three straight games once this season. I noticed he’s yet to score a PP goal. About a third of his goals came on the power play last year. And he hit double digits the two years prior. So with Buffalo’s power play starting to improve, he could be good for one soon. The +150 made it easy for me to pass on him, but if someone’s looking to just make one play, he’s not a bad option.
The other was Peterka at +200. I picked him to score vs the Rangers at +230. He did but Rangers challenged and it was ruled offside. I liked him here because I projected Vladar would start for Calgary today. However with about an hour to go, they still haven’t announced their starter. Wolf played the last two and Calgary has been alternating between both consistently. If it was Vladar, I noticed Peterka has taken his most amount of shots from a location that Vladar has allowed his most goals from. They still haven’t confirmed him so I haven’t bet it, but it’s something I’ll try to monitor.
Calgary I thought about Kadri and Coleman. Coleman hasn’t scored last three games, but has taken 10 shots on goal over that span. Career wise he’s a low percentage shooter though. He is coming off his best season as he scored 30 goals on 15.7 percent shooting. This could be an outlier though, as his last high was 22 when he was back with the Devils in 2018.
Kadri scored last game out. He’s yet to score in back to back games this season. But I think he’s capable. He frequently gets 4+ shots in a game.
My Plays for the early game
Goal Scorer Props for Calgary
Weegar +600
Kuzmenko +300
Buffalo Tuch +230