Written by Graeme on Thursday, October 10th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Good to be back writing tips. I’m traveling a bunch these days, so we will be alternating from our usual Scott on Mon-Wed, me being Fri-Sat, with Thurs being a rotating day schedule.
I am with you through the 16th, then Scott will take over for a bit. We will still in the mornings discuss each bet of course as per usual.
It’s been an interesting start to the new season. A couple of shock results last night, with the Leafs losing (in fairness, due to variance) and the Oilers losing (in fairness, their goaltending absolutely sucks).
One thing I have been doing this season that I haven’t been doing in the past is actually looking at the pre-season data. I’ve been posting about it in the comments, and looking at the advanced metrics of it all.
Now I don’t have too much faith in it, and it’s a small sample size, but bets I have made via it are:
– Utah in Regulation
– Habs to beat Leafs
– Jets to beat Oilers
– Flames to beat Canucks
– Knights in regulation
All five of those were wins. So it’s something where I’ll continue to do so outside of the comments for the next few days on here, just to see if it has any merit. I wouldn’t consider these betting tips because there is certainly not enough data here to warrant it – but I do like to do these sort of experiments in real-time.
Of course we have actual regular season data too now, so that will make it tricky. So I’m just going to start this then we’ll see how it goes.
Senators vs Panthers:
If we go by pre-season data, Senators have some excellent metrics. Their defense had issues, but goaltending backed them up.
Concern is the Panthers one game, their offense looked lively as all hell and a much better production that in pre-season. It won’t surprise me if the Sens actually pull it off here, but 2.20 just isn’t worth it.
Sabres vs Kings:
Buffalo just coming back from the Global Series and I’m fine avoiding anything there to let them settle in.
Bruins vs Canadiens:
We have some regular season data for these two. Based on pre-season data, the Habs have the edge but I don’t buy that.
I’m actually going to kick-start our official picks here with Bruins -1.5. Habs were very fortunate last night and I can’t see them rolling that into night two on a B2B. Bruins have the one day rest, and their goalscoring is looking good. I do have various notes about how shit the Panthers defense will be this year, but I think the Bruins cover the handicap here.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -107 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/10 10:31:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Leafs:
By the pre-season data, Leafs should crush the Devils simply due to goalscoring, or rather how bad the Devils goaltending and defense is. We all know there is a lot of hope about NJD this year though, and we saw them in the global series looking good but it WAS Buffalo. Happy to pass, although could see a bounce back game from the Leafs as long as they don’t let frustration set in.
Islanders vs Utah:
By the pre-season data, the edge goes to the New York Islanders here. Utah did get off to a hot start but it was against Chicago. Unfortunately, Islanders odds are too low – I’d have to take them in regulation and not ready yet to do that. But if you want to back bets on pre-season data, take the Islanders.
Wild vs Blue Jackets:
All pre-season data here, and its been goals galore. Makes the over 6 look appealing to me based on that. Wild were definitely overscoring in pre-season though.
Predators vs Stars:
Again all pre-season data. Its a tight one based on that. Preds goaltending let them down. Bookies odds seem about right.
Red Wings vs Penguins:
By the pre-season data – edge to the Penguins for sure here. But are we really backing the Penguins after that first outing? No thanks.
Sharks vs Blues:
Going by the pre-season data – oof. It’s tight and all balances out. Nothing really jumping out at me here.
So the one play. If you are going be pre-season I would recommend:
– Islanders in regulation
– Maaaaaaaaaybe the Penguins I mean at 2.20 it might be worth a punt
– Over 6 in Wild/Jackets
– I wouldn’t touch the Sens purely due to the odds. I’d want 2.40 or 2.50.
Oh and I should note Bruins/Habs is NOT based on pre-season data at all. Thats more of a gut play than anything else.
Bruins -1.5 at home to Habs has hit the last 7 times. January 2019 is the last time that didn’t hit. Doubt it’s gonna be any different this time, so I back this bet.
It was a good night if you bet the underdogs, minus the knights winning
😎👍
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
Units now: +1.942 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 1
Man, people aren’t writing anything again today, gambled away all the money again? xD Fun. Sorry, I’m a bit of a joker myself.
There are four options for me today:
LA/Buffalo win
Florida win
Columbus win
I know you like texts, that’s why you’re getting text from me today.
And I have to admit that the correct data is still missing. The season has to run for about 1 month to get good data. Especially with LA/Buffalo there is no reasonable direction and my bookie sees it that way. And there are many other problems. People are betting against Florida and therefore against my system. If it was just my system, LA, Florida and Columbus would win today. But things are unfortunately not as static as they sometimes seem. I also have to note that my system only reports in certain statistical constellations and the last St. Louis game was the first constellation of the season where the system would have tipped St. Louis, but I ignored it and then saw in retrospect that St. Louis won. Still, that’s no reason to rely on it just yet. I have to be a bit clever here. The bet on the Bruins -1.5 is definitely justifiable, but I only bet such things at odds of 3+, so for me personally a nogo. Now we still have the New York Islanders. If you go by public opinion, nothing should go wrong, but Utah is completely new to me and too unpredictable. So here too, a nogo for me.
To cut a long story short. I’m taking a tip from my system and combining it with public opinion, although I really have to say a Nobet might be better today.
Buffalo wins @ 1.925 with 1 unit
Hey Graeme! Good luck this season 🙂 Could you please also share how many units profit did your site make from last season’s (2023/2024) tips?
Thanks bro. I posted this yesterday when someone asked and I’ll post it in the tips post tomorrow:
————–
I don’t have our overall stats at the moment. I stopped tracking them last year publicly, because we started October -8u, and received a flood of negative/toxic e-mails and comments from dummies who don’t understand variance etc. I’ve decided not to do regular updates whether it’s a winning record or a losing record, because I don’t want to feed into that. (Plus we never get the e-mails/comments when we’re crushing it – just if we rack up a few losses)
Checking my spreadsheet – my own personal stats based on posted pics for regular & playoffs looks to be about +36u although that could be off by a couple. I’m not sure what Scotts was – I know he was at -15u at some point with picks he posted around mid-season, but that got better by the end of the regular season.
When I get some downtime, I’ll go through last seasons data and compile it.
———-
You are doing amazing job keeping this forum going. It is the only place where I can read detailed analysis for free and it is trustworthy. Don’t let dummies disturb you. Good luck and greetings from Estonia.
Don’t worry mate – been doing this since 2013, well used to it and it doesn’t bother me at all. Used to try to educate them alas they never want to learn. I’ve seen it all over the years – get people furious when we have days without tips for example ha. It’s like – forcing bets every day is beyond reckless and stupid, but so many people just think sports betting is guaranteed money.
Until the Panthers give me a reason not to, I’ll be on them every game. Specially when the odds are this high.
Panthers in regulation
Bruins covered the handicap at home to the Habs the last 7 meetings. Last time they didn’t cover was in January 2019. Nothing tells me they shouldn’t be able to do it tonight as well.
Bruins -1.5
I think the Devils will be better this season. Last season they won 2 of 3 games against the Leafs. Strong start to the season must have given them some confidence too, and they’re at home.
Devils in regulation
Gutshot: Islanders in regulation.
Might put one on Stars too. Might throw them into a 5 game bet.
Boston -1.5 +104
Boston gets to face a Montreal team that stat wise was dominated by Toronto and managed to still get the victory.
Boston will look to bounce back after a convincing loss to Florida. Boston was absolutely blitzed in the first period and fell behind 4-1 after the first period. 2nd and 3rd Periods were a little more encouraging for the Bruins, who did score 3 of the last 4 goals.
Emphasis for Boston should be to get off to a much better start this time around in front of the home crowd. Swayman may be rusty, but this should be a perfect matchup to ease himself back in. I think this is a good spot for Boston to get their first victory and am willing to take them on the Puck Line at plus money.
Other Thoughts
I was close to an OVER 6.5 for the Toronto/New Jersey game but will ultimately pass. Both teams have put up the xG in the few games they’ve played. NJ has gotten off to a fast start and has had five days off before finally playing in front of the home crowd. Toronto will face a tougher team and just played yesterday, but I liked the effort.
Markstrom was sharp in his one start, but still faced 30 shots. Toronto hasn’t confirmed a goaltender, but may rely on Hildeby with Woll injured and Stolarz playing yesterday. If they were to go back to Stolarz, I’d like the Over less, but ultimately I will be passing on this anyway.
I took Utah vs Chicago the other game. However watching the game I wasn’t too impressed with Utah. They got off to the fast 3-0 start. But then allowed Chicago to get back in the game. Chicago had chances to tie it. The empty net goal and late minute made this game appear less close than it felt to me watching it. I think there will be times to bet on Utah, but also situations to bet against them. This feels like one of those times.
Florida/Ottawa Over 6 at -120
Florida may be distracted by the Hurricane that hit the state last two days. The game could be a welcome distraction. Or their thoughts could be on other things besides hockey. Just speculation by me and I don’t know how to properly factor it, if at all. But I would lean towards Over the 6 here. Ultimately I won’t be betting it though.
My plays will be
Boston first period -.5 at +110
Boston -1.5 at +104
NY Islanders -130
Good to see you on the Bruins. God I hope we (Habs) get destroyed tonight 🙂
I felt the same when I read your write up for it this morning, because i had already bet it last night lol. I said ok if it doesn’t come thru at least I’m on the right side.
Also had a similar situation where I found myself yelling at my rangers yesterday to stop scoring so I could cash the under lol.
Good luck tonight and this season. Always appreciate the hard work you and Scott put in. And kudos to compiling the preseason data and sharing and making it available to everyone.
🤪