Written by Graeme on Friday, October 11th, 2024
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Apologies for the delay in posting today. My morning was taken up getting tickets for Coldplay in Toronto. Quite the pain in the arse – two accounts attempting to get 5 tickets total. Just as we managed that, they announced two more shows which would work out better for us as we’d already be in Toronto at that time. So had to do the whole process again.
Still – hopefully make a wee bit of cash on the secondary market with those extra tones.
Speaking of making cash, it was nice to get off to a winning start last night with the Bruins -1.5. The Habs didn’t make it easy, but they got there in a hell of a game and we got our moneys worth just from the entertainment.
Quick notes on pre-season analysis primarily because I would like to refer back to this next season:
– Sens one despite being dogs came in quite easy, with the pre-season analysis pointing to that. That goaltending came up clutch again so will be something to bear in mind.
– Leafs generally crushed the Devils as the pre-season data suggested.
– Islanders did not match up to the pre-season analysis.
– Wild/Blue Jackets over didn’t come in. Might not be worth applying pre-season data to O/Us as I’d think things are a bit looser etc (although that’s some confirmation bias coming in there).
– Preds/Stars data matched up to how the game played out.
– Penguins had the edge over the Wings and got the job done.
– Blues/Sharks was tight and went to OT.
So after over 10 years doing this, actually taking the time to look at pre-season data has been helpful, and I’ll continue to consider it for the next few games.
One more quick note – had some people ask about stats in the comments over the last couple of days. Here’s the reply I posted:
“I don’t have our overall stats at the moment. I stopped tracking them last year publicly, because we started October -8u, and received a flood of negative/toxic e-mails and comments from dummies who don’t understand variance etc. I’ve decided not to do regular updates whether it’s a winning record or a losing record, because I don’t want to feed into that. (Plus we never get the e-mails/comments when we’re crushing it – just if we rack up a few losses)
Checking my spreadsheet – my own personal stats based on posted pics for regular & playoffs looks to be about +36u although that could be off by a couple. I’m not sure what Scotts was – I know he was at -15u at some point with picks he posted around mid-season, but that got better by the end of the regular season.
When I get some downtime, I’ll go through last seasons data and compile it.”
Whew.
Hurricanes vs Lightning:
Alrighty pure pre-season data. Corsi close, Fenwick edge to Canes. Canes GF huge but xGF a bit ahead. Their SCGF/60 is so much bigger. Basically it’s a case of can they take advantage of their goalscoring? This is one I won’t be betting on as their xGF isn’t high enough for me.
Jets vs Blackhawks:
By pre-season data, Jets definitely have the edge. Their GA/60 was bad but the Hawks was atrocious. Hawks were brutal with that last year too. Pre-season data isn’t super convincing just due to the Jets GA/60 and they actually had a worse xGA/60 than the Hawks. So I wouldn’t bet the required Jets -1.5 based on that.
Hawks lost to Utah which I expected. Jets cleaned the Oilers clock, which I also called based on pre-season data.
I’m very close to going with Jets -1.5 here again primarily on a gut play. But I think it could be a high variance play. Jets relied on goaltending a fair bit last game – both for them, and to score. Hawks granted have brutal defense. Jets xGF last game was brutally low.
No play, but I do lean towards Jets -1.5. Over 6 could be a possibility too but for that you are ignoring the Hawks pre-season offense, and hoping Hellebuyck doesn’t have a banger.
Golden Knights vs Blues:
By pre-season data, Knights have a slight edge in Corsi & Fenwick. Edge xGF, edge in goals and a strong one on SCGF.
Blues we have seen twice so far this year with the tight win over Kraken and the Sharks. That one was last night. Knights just the once, that 8-4 game against the Avs. The GF% and xGF% stats for that one are quite wonky, and put me off a play here on Vegas. Don’t hate them in regulation but it’s pure gut.
Canucks vs Flyers:
Nothing I am seeing in this one especially after the Canucks last high variance game. Even if we go by pre-season stats it all sorta balances out.
Philadelphia vs Vancouver Over 6 -115
Vancouver has a potent offense and that continued in their game one loss to Calgary as they were able to put up 5. The xG For and Against wasn’t particularly high in this game. But I think that could be a good sign for this one being high scoring as well here.
I don’t see either teams goaltender stealing a game if this one is able to achieve a high xG in tonight’s game. Also with the talent Vancouver has, I don’t think they necessarily need a high xG to convert chances into goals vs the Flyers.
Vancouver doesn’t need many chances to rack up goals. Last year, Vancouver was tied with Tampa Bay for the best Shooting Percentage at 12 Percent. On 5 on 5 they had a league best 9.6. They face a Flyers team that had a league worst Save Percentage.
Vancouver will go with Lankinen tonight after Silovs struggled in game one. Both are unproven goaltenders that are rated below average thus far in their careers. The sample sizes are small, but still worth noting.
On the other side with Philly, the goaltending situation appears to be even worse. Ersson should get the nod here. He has a below 90 Save Percentage and finished last year with a -15.6 Goals Saved Above Average.
Vancouver could hit this over with minimal help from Philly. But a repeat of the goaltending displayed vs Calgary should see this go over the total, or at the very least push.
Other thoughts
I really wanted to take Tampa Bay at +130 However I’m hesitant to do so and will ultimately pass. Guentzel missed a few practices but it appears he’ll play.
I also considered St. Louis vs Vegas Under 6. St. Louis will be on a back to back and fresh off another comeback win. Vegas lost most of the advanced stats against Colorado, but won handily on the score sheet. The xG was closer than some of Colorado’s other stats so it didn’t necessarily translate into a false win exactly. But all three goaltenders were pretty poor in this game.
Vegas also did a good job keeping the Avs High and Mid danger shots limited. According to Natural Stat Trick, 19 of Colorado’s 32 shots were graded as Low Danger. They were however able to convert twice. A better performance from Adin Hill combined with a similar defensive performance could see less goals conceded this game. A worse offensive team on a back to back off two emotional wins could help with this as well.
Goals Scorer
Tampa Bay Point to score +160
I considered Kucherov and long shots in
Hagel and Paul. I’m still unsure if Guentzel will play for Tampa Bay so they may need to rely on the usual suspects. Point has scored 14 goals in 27 games against Carolina.
Recap of my plays
Philadelphia vs Vancouver OVER 6 -115
Tampa Bay Point to Score +160
I’m looking at the Bruins – Kings game, and the last 6 times they played in Boston it’s gone to OT, and Kings won 5 of the 6. Early game, so I’m really wanting to put something on this one. I think I’m gonna throw a unit on the Kings to win in OT at +750.