Written by Graeme on Saturday, October 12th, 2024
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Oh god. Saturdays in the NHL. It’s been awhile.
Quick look at yesterdays action. Canes were unable to take advantage of their hot goalscoring during the pre-season in an even game xG wise.
Thankfully, I stayed away from that Jets -1.5. Plays that I dodge a bullet on feel even better than wins at times. The data just wasn’t overwhelming enough and it was a woeful effort from the Jets offense xG wise.
Knights won but it was close as expected.
Let’s get right into the Saturday slate – one less game, as the Hurricanes-Lightning game is postponed. At least we’re still light on data, so less time for me on the analysis/research front, and less rabbit holes to go down.
Bruins vs Kings:
Two high scoring games for the Bruins. Favoured here against the Kings who bet Buffalo. After how erratic they were in the last game in what really should have been close to a gimmie, I’m happy to pass on themhere. Pre-season data favours the Kings FWIW.
Leafs vs Penguins:
Leafs back on track with the W over the Devils. Heavy favourites here. Pens two different style games coming into this. Not really sure what to expect. I lean Leafs in regulation.
Canadiens vs Sentors:
No clue what to think of the Habs at this point. Sens got the solid win over Florida. Nothing standing out in pre-season data. Habs xGA is scary. I thiiink Sens should be able to take this in regulation but not taking them on the road here this early.
Rangers vs Utah:
Only that 6-0 outing by the Rangers thus far. Utah have had two fun games.
I definitely lean the Rangers, but I am a bit concerned about their xGA from that last game. However part of that is the story of the game.
The over is tempting just based on Utahs offense so far this season. Plus the Rangers metrics. The problem is there is certainly not enough data backing that, and we all know Shesterkin is a factor in that.
This is a gut play as there really isn’t enough data, and beware the Shesterkin, but Utah/Rangers Over 6 Goals incl OT.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -108 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/12 12:02:44 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Sabres vs Panthers:
I’d think this one should swing the Panthers way. I wasn’t too surprised at that Sens loss and said there was a good chance based on the pre-season data. Looking at the pre-season data for this one – eh, it actually leans Bufalo’s way so yeah I’m gonna pass.
Red Wings vs Predators:
Both teams scored 3 goals but lost their opening matches, both home openers too.
Not seeing enough in the metrics from pre-season to go for anything here. Preds had a good xGA in their last game. That’s interesting. Wedgewood was in net there. Saros is projected tonight. Looking at the metrics between those two last year – Saros was slightly better.
Lean on the Preds if Saros plays but too early in the season to go with a goalie-dependent pick.
Capitals vs Devils:
No games yet for Washington. Devils got off to a bad start once back in North America. I think we’ll see them gel later on down the line. Pre-season data would lean towards the Capitals.
Tight one – very tempted to do a cheeky play on the Capitals here. Think it’s one of those “bet but not advise” plays from me. Just seems a bit too reckless to advise.
Stars vs Islanders:
Two high scoring games to start for both. If we go by that, could be an over game. Concern is the xG of both teams in those games. Despite the goals, 2.69 for Islanders and 1.86 for Stars. Enough to put me off.
Wild vs Kraken:
Wild with the win over the Jackets, Kraken lost to Blues. Fine passing on this one. Glancing at the pre-season data not much stands out except the Wilds offense are overproducing.
Oilers vs Blackhawks:
Oilers looking to get back on track after that brutal opening to the season. Better by pre-season data, but I mean at this point I’m betting Oilers -2.5 due to the odds and no thanks. -1.5 isn’t worth it i’d want closer to 2.00.
Flames vs Flyers:
By pre-season data, its tight but an edge to the Flames. The advanced metrics for the first game aren’t great for Calgary. Bookies odds are about correct I’d say and thus, no value.
Sharks vs Ducks:
Ducks with the edge in pre-season data in a few decent spots. We are yet to see them this season. I ain’t backing a team on their first game on the road at 1.74 odds. By the data, that seems correct line wise anyway.
Real quick goal scoring props on the Kings vs Bruins that I’ll be taking.
Kings Kempe to score +200
Kempe hasn’t recorded a shot yet but attempted 3 in the first game. Got just under 19 minutes ice time. Other value options I considered for Kings were Moore +300 and Danault+330. However I think goals might be difficult to come by for the Kings today.
Swayman may look to bounce back from his last game performance. Swayman is 8-3 in 11 Games in October. He’s a perfect 3-0 vs the Kings allowing only 4 Goals Against and a .959 Save percentage. Small sample size and could still have some rust though.
Boston Marchand +250 to score.
Career 17 percent shooter in October. 15.7 percent at home. Has scored 16 goals in 22 games vs the Kings.
Long shot Boston Frederic to score +400
Like the value. He’s already scored once and could stay hot. Also does well against Kings. But small sample size and could regress. Gets a solid matchup against Kuemper. Kuemper performed really well first game. But he’s 2-7 with a .897 Save Percentage vs Boston. It’s a bit of reach though as Kuemper does tend to start off his seasons strong. This one could backfire.
Three goal scorer props I’ll be playing in early game.
Kings Kempe +200
Boston Marchand +250
Boston Frederic +400
Also just a note. Goal Scorers are much more fluky. I don’t take these with the same confidence expecting them to cash as I would a regular play. Sometimes I pick 7 to 10 and put up a donut. If anyone takes goal scorers I would encourage you to lower your expectations drastically.
I’ll probably have a second post later in the day with more goal scorer props that I’m playing. I focused a bit on the NJ vs Washington game.And maybe a pick or two. But nothing is really jumped out to me last night and I’ll have to try and do a little more work.
Meant to say nice call with point to score yesterday
Thanks man. I actually had a Vancouver Hoglander hit as well at +500 but didn’t post it cuz I wasn’t as confident. I only mention it now to explain why the sudden enthusiasm for goal scorers today.
So of course I now have 8 goal scorers I’ve taken so far last night.
I’m fully prepared for a depressing come back to earth reality check today lol. Sometimes the worst thing that can happen to me is a random win. It fucks with my ego.
Once it’s outta my system I’ll try and refocus on smarter bets and ways to use the data.
Ha I know that feeling with those sort of picks.
On our Patreon a couple of months ago, I tipped George Russell to win his group at 8.00 in the Austrian Grand Prix.
An hour beforehand I was thinking about it more, and liked a bet on him to win the GP at 62/1. I bet it, but I decided against tipping it because man such a high variance play when I figured truer odds might be about 20/1.
Anyway he won and while I was delighted that I won, was also furious that I hadn’t tipped it and came off like a guru lol
62 to 1 is awesome. Especially in racing.
I can imagine the debate you have deciding what to tip and is it worth the potential nonsense backlash.
Then God Forbid you try and tip it and calmly explain hey this might not come thru but here’s all the data showing why there’s value. Here’s the data that supports it. And then all the comments and bitching and moaning you probably get on a daily basis on why didn’t that 62 to 1 cash???? Lol
Then remind them hey last month I went 20 and 8 and tipped a 17 to 1 using the exact same data I used for this pick. Just so they can go yeah yeah that’s great, who do you like next week?
I don’t envy that.
Goal scorer bets are awesome. Gives the same excitement when watching, and the odds are pretty damn good for players who score on more than half their games. I always have some side bets on goal scorers as well!
I got an early “bet builder” on Bruins – Kings. All need to hit for a 100/1 return:
Kempe to score
Kopitar to score
Pastrnak to score
Game goes to OT
Kings to win
Let’s see!
Lean: Calgary Flames moneyline.
Flyers on a back-to-back, Flames looking fast and great on offense.
Other than that, limited time today, I’ll be looking for Overs. Not touching the Oilers game, they’re not tuned up yet. Many teams not tuned up yet.
I had a similar thought about Washington when they were +130 yesterday. I hesitated because i was concerned with the Devils set to play their 4th game and coming off their first loss vs a team playing its first. I wasn’t sure what the rust factor would be for Washington and how long it would take them to get up to speed. The line has went down so that could be a positive for your initial lean. I now have multiple goal scorer props on the game so I laid off it cuz I figured I had enough liability without adding more. Really thought there was value on Washington at the price though.
Teams that have back to backs on Sunday
Minnesota
Seattle and Dallas
Calgary and Edmonton
Anaheim
Be mindful of the goaltender matchups and how they set who starts which.
Notable Goaltenders I saw listed as confirmed for today.
Pittsburgh will go back to Blomqvist over Jarry after picking up the win in Detroit.
Spencer Knight vs Devon Levi in the Florida vs Buffalo matchup.
Fleury starts for Minnesota.
Edmonton going with Pickard.
Vanecek makes his debut with the Sharks.
Wolf starts for Calgary as Philadelphia will probably go with Fedotov after Ersson played yesterday. Still not confirmed.
Also key injuries for those not aware
Florida lost Barkov for 2 to 3 weeks I’ve heard. They also will be without Tkachuk for this game as he’s listed DTD with an illness. Florida has dropped from about -148 to even.
For what it’s worth Goal Scorer Props for New Jersey vs Washington. I played em so I might as well share them.
New Jersey
Hamilton +440
Long Shot but liked the value. His 11 shots on goal and 24 shot attempts both rank second on the team. Only behind Meier. If I can get him at this price again vs Utah, Detroit, Anaheim and Vancouver will look to play him there depending on how it works out.
Jack Hughes +140
No goals yet. 10 shots on 16 attempts. Averaging just under 21 minutes of ice time.
Nico Hischier +200
11 goals in 22 games vs washington. scores more on road than home
Washington
Mangiapane +360
20.9 shot percent in october for his career. 4 goals in 9 games vs nj
McMichael +420
5 goals in 7 games vs nj
Looking back my picks would have been Kempe, Marchand, Hischier (probably the one I like the most) and Hamilton. I’d also probably talk myself into Mangiapane as well. Trevor Moore was considered and ended up scoring for the kings and taking 7 shots. But I still would have cut him for Kempe. So I don’t feel hard done there.
McMichael and Frederic would have been left off with me liking the other options more. I feel like while McMichael, Frederic and to a lesser extent Mangiapane, have positive stats the sample sizes are extremely small. Especially with McMichael who is probably due some heavy regression.
Hughes would also be left off. Not that I don’t think he will score, it’s just he’s going off at the worst odds. And with the other choices if he hits, it won’t do very much for me. I still will need another one or two to cash anyway. I will have him highlighted for the Vancouver game as it appears he loves going against his brother. Jack has 7 goals and 6 assists in 7 games vs Vancouver. 20.6 shooting percentage on 34 shots to boot. Couple others potentially depending on what type of form he’s in.
Still working on how to effectively post and write up my goal scoring props to make them beneficial in the proper context. And not a waste because they are too hit or miss to be worth the risk.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
I take Calgary to win @ 1.787 with 2 units
Update
I take Calgary to win @ 1.775 with 4 units now