Written by Graeme on Monday, October 14th, 2024
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No bets yesterday, although definitely looking back at that Stars in regulation one, which I said was a safe play, and wondering if I missed the boat on that one as an official bet. It was a solid performance from D*llas as they eased to the 2-0 win.
Oh my – how about those Edmonton Oilers? Time to burn the jerseys I’d say.
Three early games today in a six-pack, so let’s get right into it.
Bruins vs Panthers:
These two just played a few days ago, so I’m ready to skip it. I always find weirdness in those games played very close together. Neither team are really looking backable in this clash.
If we go by what little regular season data we have – Panthers a lot better Corsi & Fenwick and SF%. Scoring less and conceding more though – but the xG stats look good for them.
I’m not confident enough in it to back, but I do think Panthers have some slight value at 2.15. This seems more coinflippy for me, so there’s some value there for sure.
The Over/Under at 5.5 is interesting actually. Bruins had a low offensive output game against the Kings, but the rest were good. Interestingly their goals conceded are primarily high danger goals.
Ooooh this is tight. The performances of both teams in their last game leans against it, but the first two games are very positive towards it. Panthers of course have Barkov out and potentially Tkachuk. And Bruins have Swayman in so that’s obviously another factor.
I want to write “I’ll begrudingly pass” but it’s one of those where I’ll really be kicking myself if I don’t go with it. So screw it – I’m going with it, but I’ve given the reasons as to why it’s a lower line so it’s your call.
Over 5.5 Goals incl OT
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.89 Odds at Bovada
USA: -112 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.89 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/14 10:44:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Kings:
Neither team really standing out at the moment. Odds seem right for this one, no play.
Devils vs Utah:
Devils heavily favoured here. Line is hefty at 6.5. xGA/60 is quite solid as is their SCGA/60. This is a tight one but I’m going to pass, although the over certainly has a little bit of merit.
Rangers vs Red Wings:
Rangers with two crazy games so far. 6-0 drubbing on the road against the Penguins, then that 6-5 loss in OT at their home opener. Wings started with the loss to the Pens but got the W over the Preds.
Lean on Rangers in regulation for sure just in general. CF & FF line up for that. As do most of the other metrics. Yet for some reason, unlike yesterdays Stars play, I don’t get that “safe” play vibe from this one. Shesterkin was a bit of a liability in that Utah game. No play, because after the way the Utah game played out I do wonder if there’s a bit of a “lets go back to the drawing board” plan for the Rangers.
Canadiens vs Penguins:
Nothing here. Advanced metrics lean Penguins in most spots but not all. The GF% metrics are a big one too. Happy to pass.
Avalanche vs Islanders:
Nothing here. If you go by the metrics so far – man idk. Islanders xGF% metrics are actually excellent but that’s not computing on the ice at all. A bit similar to the Avs.
LA vs Ottawa UNDER 6 was going to be my play. But it’s looking like Ullmark will miss this game. Ottawa recalled Sogaard and Ullmark missed the last practice. Sites have Forsberg listed as the potential starter for this one.
I leaned Boston but I’ll probably pass on that one as well. No Barkov could hurt Florida offensively. Swayman should start this game for Boston. Florida has had maybe one impressive period of hockey so far this season. Boston did much better against them in the second and third. Florida also has a game tomorrow.
Leaned New Jersey and the line is dropping to a close play for me at -162. I see Utah will go with Vejmelka vs Allen. I would have preferred Ingram in net for Utah if taking the Devils. Ingram has performed pretty poorly this year. However with both these goalies and the line where it’s currently at, still a pass for me.
Detroit and NY Rangers I leaned to an UNDER 6.5 if it’s Talbot vs Shesterkin. But not crazy confident in that. There’s still too much variance in Shesterkin and the Rangers performances. But I’m expecting a better game defensively from them. Detroit I’m less sure about. Husso gave up four to Pittsburgh and was pulled. Talbot came in and gave up 2 as well but then shutout Nashville the following game. Detroit was also outshot 42 to 22 in that game though. Detroit also have Lyon on the team and I’m seeing they might go with him for this game. Maybe Rangers in regulation -135 is the better option if you think Shesterkin and the Rangers bounce back with a better performance defensively. Detroit rolling three goalies this early isn’t the greatest of signs for them.
Play will be Rangers in regulation-135. But I’m not crazy about it.
I went on a diatribe last night to my brother explaining that under no circumstances does a keeper who pitches a shutout not get the next start (excluding back to backs).
I don’t understand not putting him back out there. We waived Husso (and he cleared) and seem determined not to have a clear starter in net for the second year running.
Nothing against Lyon, I thought he would be the guy out of the gate this year. I don’t think Talbot could be sufficiently tired after 4+ periods, 3 of which were perfect.
I would expect to make the next start after every W, until I told the coach something was bothering me. I’m sure it was odd to be our no.1 last year and then get stuck to the bench after Husso got pulled game one, so maybe Lyon getting this start was predetermined.
I was shocked Talbot didn’t start for u guys after the shutout. When I saw Lyon it gave me slightly more confidence though not much. I still respect Detroit offensive talent and they are a fun team to watch when they are rolling. I still felt like this was a close game for most of it. Empty netter makes it look a little more lopsided then the actual game. And the Rangers gave way too many Power Play opportunities for my liking.
If Talbot started I wouldn’t have taken the Rangers at all let alone in regulation. I would have loved that under which ended up hitting anyway.
And against a former team, though I noticed last year when he was the Kings and had a potential Quick vs The Kings, Talbot vs the Rangers matchup they passed on starting him too. No clue why they opted not to give him the start here after a 42 save shutout. He started last year really hot for the Kings too then minded of faded. So if I was Detroit I’d keep playing him until he gave me a reason not too.
Hey, what site(s) do you guys for analytics?
I’m a Wings fan, really like the odds we’re getting today and the way we played Nashville. Talbot looked fantastic but I’m sure Nashville adjusting to Stamkos played into it. Our offense was not great, admittedly.
Also, thanks for the tips. So many people sell crappier advice and I really appreciate how cautious you two are with your cash. Anybody who is upset with how you two make picks or run this site is an entitled P.O.S.
I have a lot of sites bookmarked, Patreons I pay for etc so I look at a ton depending on time.
My #1 resource when it comes to advanced metrics is https://www.naturalstattrick.com/
And thanks 🙂 When we started the site, the intention was never to sell tips or anything so thankfully we’ve never gravitated that way. We just both enjoy the shit out of hockey, and betting on hockey. I’ve found over the years it’s made me much better at betting as well, writing everything out etc.
Utah has a great mood and a good start! but today the devils will take their toll. Of all the games today, the Devils look like the clear winner. For those who want to increase the odds, you can take the devils’ victory over the top! good luck everyone
🤔🥱
You realize you posted this after the game was over yeah?
S&G are you taking a break today (15/10)? Well, I’ll just write my tip for today here. Whoever sees it can be happy or something. 😆
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
Units now: +4.042 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 5
I take Vegas to win @ 1.806 with 1 unit
Just in the middle of posting I’ll have it up in 5 here
Nice!