Written by Graeme on Tuesday, October 15th, 2024
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Apologies for the delay today. Tuesdays is my busiest work day and couldn’t find the time until now.
A nice and easy over 5.5 goals in the Bruins vs Panthers game continues my 100% record for the NHL season, which is lovely.
I had my concerns about that one but didn’t need to worry. Florida offense was on point, and the win was up before the start of the third period.
Rangers got the win in a solid outing which was nice to see as that’s what the metrics pointed at, and the Kings/Sens had an absolute banger. The Islanders xGF% translated to the ice as they destroyed the Avs.
Let’s look at todays games:
Lightning vs Canucks:
Lightning we’ve seen once so far with the win over the Canes. Canucks two OT/SO losses to their name. Not emuch data to really judge. Pre-season data for both has it quite close with the Tampa offense not producing there but we saw them produce against the Canes. Their xG was torrid too against the Canes. Happy to give this one a miss.
Blue Jackets vs Panthers:
at 2.25 I actually think the Jackets have some slight value here, especially with the Panthers being on a B2B. There’s just not enough data to roll with it on the Jackets end. They’re overscoring across the two games and I mean if they can continue that they have a shot as the Panthers goalie metrics are poor. But that’s a high variable not worth playing with, with such a small sample size.
Hurricanes vs Devils:
Passing on this purely due to the complete difference in data.
Capitals vs Knights:
Caps only the one game to draw from. I do like the Knights based on what info we have – I think – Caps Corsi and Fenwick isn’t too bad, but not enough to back the Knights on the road at those odds. No value.
Blues vs Wild:
3 games each. Nothing too much jumping out in the data. It’s fairly close – I don’t know if Wild should be favoured feels like a 50/50 type of game but not seeing any value anywhere
Predators vs Kraken:
Man I was looking at this one and loving the data we had, and thinking this was a nice and easy spot for the Preds in regulation – then realized I was looking at the pre-season data. Oops.
As for regular season data? Eh. Preds xGF/60 is still very high but they just aren’t scoring enough despite the chances they are creating. Are the Kraken the one to let the dams explode? They have a low xGA but high GA/60. It’s close, but there’s not enough to take Preds in regulation. Based on their offensive metrics though, they’re gonna beat up on someone very soon.
Stars vs Sharks:
Stars come into this one with a perfect record and two shutouts in a row. Alas, they are obscene favourites making even -1.5 not really worth it. The metrics certainly don’t support it either. This one almost seems ripe for an upset. Let’s see – Sharks better CF%, better FF%. Better xGF although worse xGA/60. The GF% metrics are where it is alarmingly different.
Man – I do not have the balls to go with it. It certainly has merit. But it’s just with the way the Stars are playing right now especially and the two shutouts – the confidence is brewing. Then the Sharks getting shut out their last game.
Damnit. I really want to pull the trigger ont his one too. I’ve looked at pre-season data with the intent to back the Sharks if it led me that way – unfortunately it’s the opposite, and shows a comfortable win for Stars. So I shall begrudgingly pass, and hope the Sharks get battered so I don’t wake up full of regret.
Flames vs Blackhawks:
Metrics all point towards a Flames result tonight. Bookies are giving us some nice odds. Better Corsi, better Fenwick both by a good amount. Shooting more, conceding less shots, much better GF% and xG. and the Flames offense is confident as well – they’re overproducing but 3 games in a row.
It’s a small sample size of course, but the pre-season data backs it up as well. This Flames offense is goal-happy at the moment. It’ll dry up, but I’m happy to go with Flames in Regulation until it does so.
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.10 Odds at
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/15 3:45:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Flyers:
I’m fine skipping anything involving the Oilers right now. For the record, by the metrics should be a turnaround game for them. But can you really back them in regulation – which it’d have to be – considering the way their results have went?
Meh. Actually I can. It’s such a nice little spot for them here. If they burn me, they burn me. FYI this is where betting at better odds sportsbooks is important. Bet365 have it at 1.74 which is a pass for me. 1.80 I like.
Oilers in Regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/15 3:45:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
First. Thanks for the work Graeme. 🙂
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
Units now: +4.042 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 5
I take Vegas to win @ 1.806 with 1 unit
Cheers mate
Thank you for your tips
Cheers appreciate that
To WIN moneyline: Viva Las Vegas and Flames
Reverse Puckline: Columbus at +1.5
Full game OVER 5.0: St. Louis
Lean: Moneyline win for Columbus
It’s a set NHL pattern that when a home team has a pre-game celebration of it’s team or a player accomplishment, they lose that game, it seems to drain them of their game time adrenaline and focus. It’s a relatively rare event, but don’t forget about it. However, the Gaudreau situation has the opposite effect. It was a tragedy of a much loved top NHL player, and both Calgary and Columbus remember Johnny with a renewed focus to play with all jets on maximum. Florida is nowhere near being tuned up, has two top players out, and are in a major letdown situation and on a back-to-back. They won’t care much about this game. The Columbus options well worth considering are reverse puckline to lose, a moneyline win and maybe some play money on a puckline win. When a team on the road takes the night off, they can be horrible (see Pittsburgh for extensive demonstrations). Columbus will be peaking tonight, and so will the fans. Plus, they’re offense is playing hot already. Never underestimate Monahan, Johnny’s buddy.
Flames are going to surprise the NHL this season. Their offense is for real. CAUTION: both Chicago and Calgary just completed back-to-backs, with Chicago having 2 days rest and Calgary having had just 1 day off. I’ve heard NHL vets say that to have just one day off after a back-to-back, that next game is when you feel the most exhausted, not back when you were playing the second game of the back-to-back, although that’s a consideration. Both these teams played tough back-to-backs. I’m going with Calgary moneyline, because of Calgary’s much superior offense.
Good stuff 😉
I trust Tampa Bay goaltending more than Vancouver’s, and wanted to back them. But not worth it in this spot as I think there’ll be better matchups ahead. Tampa only one game. Could have gone either way but still impressive to beat Canes in Carolina. However it should be noted Tampa didn’t do much 5 on 5. Two Power Play goals and two empty netters. Silovs getting the start for Vancouver and I wanna see how he performs.
I liked Minnesota but wasn’t sure if it’s worth a bet. I do agree you’re probably right it’s close. But I’m expecting regression from St. Louis. Stats have been heavily boosted from the Sharks game for the Blues. Other two games less impressive. Blues are conceding a lot of High Danger Goals Against. Looking at Minnesota I like the goaltending though small sample. Minnesota has struggled early PK so I’ll need them to clean that up. Minnesota shooting percentage nothing special either. I thought potentially Wild in regulation but I’ll stick with Minnesota just to win -118.
I agree with your Nashville write up and came to the same conclusion. I also felt the same liked them to win but didn’t wanna take regulation. The -192 feels like little value and I’m not generally opposed to taking high lines of if I feel it’s still worth it. I’m not really eager to bet it at the price though. I thought about a smaller play on an alt puck line. Like if Nashville does have the game we are potentially projecting, I can see them cashing a -2.5. However best price was +240 and I feel that’s too low. Will be a little upset if they do win by margin, but I wouldn’t have put a lot on it anyway.
Didn’t do any research of my own on the Calgary game. But I’ll tail that play in regulation as well.
Had some game totals that I had leans on. Won’t be playing any of em but will like to monitor the results. They were
Vegas/ Washington Over 6 -105
New Jersey vs Carolina Under 6 +100
Minnesota vs St. Louis Under 6 -115
Recap of plays
Minnesota -118
Tailing Calgary in regulation +100