Written by Scott on Friday, October 18th, 2024
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It was a busy night last night. There was 11 games and we had 1 tip.
We had the Devils to win incl OT/SO if Forsberg started for the Sens. He did and the Devils won . I originally went with the Rangers to beat the Wings if Shesterkin started but he didn’t so there wasn’t a tip there but the Rangers went to work and won 5-2.
I wanted to take the Stars to win against the Caps but I didn’t and I dodged a bullet there as the Caps ended the Stars season opening win streak at 4 games winning 3-2
The Predators lost to the Oilers 4-2 to move to 0-4. McDavid scored his first of the year, the Canucks beat the Panthers 3-2 in OT for their first win of the season and the Lightning scored twice in the last 3 minutes to rally and beat the Knights 4-3.
Hurricanes vs Penguins
The Canes have played only 2 games this season and are 1-1 beating the Devils and losing the season opener against the Lightning.
The Pens are 3-2 and have won their last 2 games in a row. With Crosby and Malkin getting some of their milestones out of the way it will be easier to focus on the game and not have to worry about hitting certain numbers.
With the Canes only playing twice it’s tough to try and get any info from them. The Pens are scoring and allowing goals but again maybe the Canes are the team that keeps the scoring down.
I would lean towards the over here but again not enough data for the Canes.
Sharks vs Jets
Sharks played yesterday and lost to the Blackhawks 4-2. They are 0-2-2 on the year.
The Jets are off to a strong start going 3-0 so far. Their last 2 wins needed overtime so they are getting the job done just not in a convincing way.
The Jets have better numbers in most categories with the only exception being XGF/60. It’s all pointing towards a Jets win but we would have to take them -1.5 just to barely get past our minimum. The Jets last 2 games needed overtime so I’m passing.
Ducks vs Avalanche
The Ducks are off to a decent start going 2-1 but I’m not sure how long the good times will last as this team is in a rebuild.
The Avalanche are better than this. Sure they had to move a few players in the off-season but for them to be 0-4 including going 0-3 at home is insane.
I’m not backing the Ducks and certainly not touching the Avalanche. All stats point to a Ducks win but it’s only a matter of time until the Avs get rolling and I feel safer just avoiding this game.
Full game OVER 5: Canes/Pens
to WIN moneyline: Carolina
to WIN moneyline: Jets
San Jose is missing quite a few important players and the Jets are looking healthy tonight. San Jose on a back-to-back and the Jets are well rested and at home. While the Jets may cool it a little, they are 3-0 and won’t be interested in stopping their helpful winning streak for the sake of the Sharks. Not interested in the puckline win; it may be a 6-1 Jets win as easily as a 2-1 Jets win. The Sharks may be very weak tonight, burning themselves out in the first period and then getting front row seats to a vulcanized paint ball shooting gallery in their own end for the last two periods. Or the Jets put it on cruise control and it’s 2-1. Just can’t see a Sharks road win.
I predict the Canes hand the Penguins much more than they can handle, and the pucks keep going in. Over 5.0 looks like free money and the Over 6.0 looks safe. How would that game stop at 4? A: The risk is that the Canes shut down the Penguins offense and the Pens go sulk on the bench paved with gold and stop contributing. The safe bet seems to be Carolina on the moneyline. No way the Pens win this one.
Winnipeg isn’t doing enough offensively 5v5 for me to take them at this price. Their goaltending has been excellent. In fact that might be a case to take Winnipeg-1.5, as this could be a get right game for the Jets offense, rather than seeing them coast thru it. Sharks goaltending has been solid though. Sharks getting outshot by their opponents. Does Winnipeg win this game 80 percent of the time and 72.5 percent of the time in regulation? Maybe. But that doesn’t give me much value or room for error.
Colorado does still have some slight value. And normally I’d probably take them. But the goaltending has been awful. I expect it to at least get somewhat better. Wouldn’t surprise me if it’s today. But based on what they’ve done so far, it makes it easier for me to pass.
Lean Carolina but don’t like the price there either. Penguins 2 good wins. One wild win. 2 bad losses. The bad losses were to the two playoff teams they’ve faced so far. That’s what Carolina is. Jarry has been terrible. Was brutal in the Ranger game. Was brutal to start the Buffalo game especially that first goal. Won’t be starting tonight and needs to get right. Pittsburgh has done some good things and scored some goals. But their lack of goaltending and two performances vs playoff caliber teams, makes them tough to back in this spot. A win by the Penguins wouldnt shock me completely though. Still think Carolina wins.
My play today will be Carolina Svechnikov to score +220. And Svechnikov to score first +1700. Svechnikov has skated well and played himself onto Carolinas first line. Yet to score, but second on the team in shots and first in shot attempts. Pittsburgh has started games slow and Svechnikov may be able to take advantage of this. Other Carolina options would be Aho and Jarvis. Necas has yet to record a shot on goal. Has 7 attempts though. So they may look to get him going as well.
If looking at Pittsburgh scorers, for me it’d be Crosby +180 or Rust +200. Malkin has scored in two straight and could stay hot. He also has 9 assists in 5 games. Rakell has scored in three straight. Bunting zero goals on 12 shots could be due soon. But I’m not sure if I’d take him vs this opponent.
Carolina Svechnikov to score +220
Carolina Svechnikov to score first +1700.