Written by Graeme on Saturday, October 21st, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
First an important note in regard to our daily e-mails – we had a lot of issues with those last year, and they are still happening. For example, yesterday I sent out the e-mails at 10:43am but they didn’t get to everyone until 7:06pm.
I’m going to be working on solutions for this. However, these solutions may end up causing issues and causing the e-mails not to go out that day.
So I’m going to be doing it on quieter days, and will give you a heads up in advance. Tomorrow, there are only two games and Monday there is only one game. So I will be working on it both of those days. If you don’t get the e-mail with the daily tips notification, no need to send me an e-mail freaking out (it’s amazing how often I get those). Instead just head to betnhl.ca, as the tips will be posted by like 11am EST every day as per usual.
Nice to see it’s a whole new season, same old Calgary Flames. They were a big concern last year where their offense would just disappear. The B2B and road game were the logical reasons that I stayed away from them, but I must admit that thought was in my mind as well. They generated a fair amount of chances but weren’t able to convert.
As a reminder from yesterday – I’ve been out of it since the season began, and am just getting caught up. I also would prefer some more data for making betting tips. Especially with a slate as big as today – I’ll be playing it very cautious in regards to analysis and betting tips. It’s a long season so taking it easy early is no biggie.
Senators vs Wings:
Senators come in on an excellent run to start the season. They’re a team I said in my previews that I felt very optimistic about to begin the season. Red Wings are also coming in firing. Very intriguing game.
A quicklook at the metrics suggests this is a very even game. So there might be slight value on the Red Wings. Can’t back them against a settled and confident Sens team though.
Coyotes vs Ducks:
Coyotes coming off that big win over the Blues but it’s been a weak start for them so far. They are heavily favoured against the Anaheim Ducks. I really don’t think they should be.
I guess the general concern is the Coyotes offense if they can get going – which we saw against the Blues – and Gibson is Gibson. I’ll be honest I spent a fair bit of time looking at this one. It’s not like the Coyotes offense so far this season are gold tier.
Sabres vs Islanders:
Eh with the Islanders on a B2B happy to skip. I’d like to think Buffalo take the win here but the early metrics don’t really lean that way. Particularly in regard to the Sabres defensive and goaltending. And the Islanders last night was all PPGs so you can’t really count out their defense yet.
My gut says the Sabres get the W here but the odds based on the season so far I’m not loving.
Lightning vs Leafs:
The Leafs are just all over the place this season. Couple of rough outings. Feel like this one will be goal heavy looking at the metrics, but the bookies expect that too with an over 7. Honestly it really should go over, especially with the Leafs overall metrics in offense. But considering their last two offensive performances, it just feels like a coinflip on whether their offense does the job or not.
Leafs have been performing well enough but just can’t score consistently.
Based on the Lightning data, Leafs SHOULD be getting the goals here and if I were betting this one I’d probably look at over 3.5 goals for the Leafs.
Panthers vs Canucks:
Both teams with polar opposite starts to the season. Florida have the momentum. The metrics are a bit tough this early because you look at them and the Canucks offense is a bit daunting. But a large part of that is that 8-1 game which will balance out over the season.
I think there’s enough here to go with the Panthers. Canucks defensive metrics are concerning and goaltending has been helping them out. I think the Panthers can exploit that.
If I had more data I’d probably go with an in-regulation win but tis early so Panthers incl OT/SO.
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.75 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -133 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.75 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/21 11:24:34 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Capitals:
This is one of those games where just off the bat I know I’m not going to be backing anything involving them. Just nowhere near enough data, Capitals still trying to really find themselves. Their offense is abysmal. Habs is a good team for them to get going against it looks like. Nothing here.
Wild vs Blue Jackets:
Nothing for these two especially with the Jackets on a B2B, and just how inconsistent both have been. I’d give the slight edge to the Wild. Not as big as the bookies have it though but maybe they are factoring in the B2B.
Stars vs Flyers:
Interesting ods with the Stars hefty favourites. Not sure they have earned that this season at all. Defensively they’re certainly looking sound but the Flyers have had some good performances.
Stars of course will be a step up from Canucks and Oilers. Oettinger is playing well, but so is Hart. This is one where it sucks that it’s early in the season and I’m playing catch-up, because I really think the Flyers have value here but I feel irresponsible advising it.
So personally I’m playing Flyers DNB at 3.30 odds. But I am still out of the loop, so that play may stink.
Blues vs Penguins:
Eh neither team is one I really feel like betting right now. Blues offensively look absolutely shocking thus far. But I don’t have enough confidence in the Pens especially on the road at the price we’re being given.
Predators vs Sharks:
Preds should get the W. Would have to be an in regulation play. I certainly don’t hate it. They have some severe defensive issues it looks like, but the Sharks don’t look like a team that can capitalize on it. I’m going to pass as it’s been some tricky games for the Sharks and it’s too early to dive into weighted metrics.
Blackhawks vs Knights:
Knights looking the real deal. Hawks been a bit of a mixed bag early. This is their home opener. Hawks could make a game of this. They have a solid xGF/60 so far and if they are up for it with the home game. Not really up for betting teams on the road in regulation this early anyway.
Avalanche vs Hurricanes:
Avs on a tear to start the season. Hurricanes have been a bit all over the place and their goaltending is abysmal. Avs on the other hand are rocking the goaltending.
I’m surprised at the Over/Under being low. I thought this would be a 6.5 or even a 7 when I looked at the metrics. I guess that’s more due to the performances of Georgiev and then when you look at who the Canes have played against.
I’m going to back the Canes to be able to give Georgiev his biggest test yet though.
Over 6 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.84 at BetOnline.
USA: -119 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.84 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/21 11:24:34 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Rangers:
Nothing for this one. Neither team really backable at the moment. Bookies probably have the odds right.
Oilers vs Jets:
I’m fine with staying away with anything involving the Oilers right now.
Kings vs Bruins:
Good start to the season for Boston. Will be a big test for them here. Curious to see how their goaltending and defense hold up against what is looking like a dynamic Kings offense. I shall pass.
Whew – that was many hours of work, but felt great to really reacquaint myself with each NHL team. Now a short break to watch the rest of the soccer, then off to write NFL betting tips. Oh Saturdays.
To WIN moneyline: Florida
Full game Over 6.0: Ottawa
Full game Under 6.0: Philly/Dallas
Lean: Win moneyline: Nashville
Lean: full game Over 5.5: Carolina/Colorado
Taking into consideration Graeme’s long-term issues with Nashville, they aren’t horrible right now and San Jose is just the worst on offense (actually Washington and St. Louis are even worse!). Carolina is an “Over” team and Colorado just played three weak teams in a row and should be in for a big shock. Should be a fast furious game.
Otherwise, lots of red flag situations today, so can’t bet much. Montreal takes the most penalties of all teams in the league, but Washington can’t score yet. Toronto is unreliable, so not touching that game. What’s with their offense drought? Same with the Oilers; offense died. Chicago home opener and anything could happen, but not on my dime. Looking at other games, just didn’t like what I saw.
Yeah each year I give them a fresh chance, each year they blow it ha. From what I saw they should do the job today but want to wait until I have more data for weighted metrics for picks like that.
Florida -130
Took this at -130 when the lines opened yesterday because I anticipated it to go up and it has. I had Florida rated at 58.5 percent chance to win, so anything up to about -141 was a bet for me. I’m seeing it around that price at some spots now so the value is really minimal on this play unless there’s some buy back on Vancouver. Tkachuk hasn’t scored yet and I do think he has a good chance to go over his 3.5 shot total as well. So If you wanna get a little more gutsy you could do a Same Game Parlay. Florida and Tkachuk to score should get you 2 to 1 odds if it cashes. Other options could be Florida and Tkachuk to record 4+ shots. An even safer option would be bringing Tkachuk shot total down to 3+ which should still give you plus money as well.
Tampa Bay +120 half unit
I was hoping this would climb to +120 or higher with how popular Toronto is and with everyone’s fears that goaltending would be an issue for Tampa Bay, because so far it has been the case for them. I put Tampa just below 50 percent chance to win here at an almost coin toss kinda game. Toronto has had early goaltending issues themselves assuming Samsonov gets the start. And although it was last season and with Vasilevskiy, Tampa was just too good at home for me to ignore getting them at plus money here. This could potentially backfire.
Point has yet to score on the season and is +110 currently. I anticipated there was a good chance of him getting his first one here, prolly with an assist from Kucherov. Also Stamkos at +160 could be good. He missed two games before coming back to face Vancouver where he recorded 7 shots. Stamkos has recorded a point in every game he’s played so far. He’s highly motivated and has publicly said how disappointed he was to not even get a contract offer from Tampa management. I have yet to play either one, as I couldn’t decide between the two and didn’t want to risk potentially going 0-3 with a bad showing by Tampa.
Chicago +190 half unit.
This I have super low expectations for. Just the potential irony of Vegas starting off their season red hot, beating everybody, only to have their first loss of the season to Chicago. I couldn’t help myself. Besides that, I do have Chicago at about 37.5 percent chance of winning, so technically I’m getting about 3 percent of value here. Vegas is the potential mega parlay killer that everyone throws in their 8 teamer with all the other heavy favorites just to get a better payout. Then screams how the eff did Vegas lose to freakin Chicago.
Chicago Bedard 5+ shots at +128 half unit.
This was originally going to be an over 3.5 at -160 for me. So well done bookies offering plus money for that extra shot. Can’t wait till he lands exactly on 4 shots after recording 3 in the first period alone lol. He has hit the 5 plus shot total 3 times already, and is coming off a zero shot game vs the Avs. I anticipate his home opener to be similar to his first game all over again, with lots of early adrenaline. I also like how he really doesn’t puck watch and admire his shot so far. He looks to follow and pounce on any rebounds. There was also a book that offered Bedard to score at +200, which has been hard for me to ignore.
Two Team Parlay -154 for a half unit
Islanders vs Sabres alternate total Over 5
and
St. Louis alternate puckline +2.5
Varlamov and Comrie are both getting their first starts of the season, so potential rust factor for both. I also think Buffalo’s top line is starting to look sharper. Don’t like that the Islanders are coming off a back to back but at least the travel aspect won’t be a factor being able to stay in state.
I dunno if just taking the Blues at +130 was the better option. Binnington has started the season sharp and could steal one. It could also just be a really really small sample size.
Columbus vs Minnesota UNDER 6.5 -110 half unit
Dunno if I throughly researched this play enough before making it. Merzlikins has been much improved to start after his season from hell last year. Assuming Gustavsson he hasn’t been as sharp. But did have a really good year last year. While both offenses can get hot at times, they can also go cold for long stretches. Wild have gone over this total their last 3 games, but still worth a play to me.
Was hoping to get The Kings at even money, but don’t think it will drop that low. I did have their odds of winning at about 54 percent. Which would be anything lower than -116 which they currently are. However I’m not really eager to go against Boston even if Swayman gets the start. Won’t be surprised with a Kings win though, and if I do get a +100 it will have to be a play.
Always love to see your writeups they are appreciated. Good to see your thoughts on Blackhawks too. That’s one I am curious about. Especially this early in the season where teams generally play with more fire.
Recap of Plays
Florida -130
Tampa Bay +120 half unit
Chicago +190 half unit
Two team parlay -154 half unit
NYI/Buf OVER 5 alt total and St. Louis +2.5
CBJ/Min under 6.5 at -110 half unit
Chicago Bedard 5+ shots at +128 half unit
I will probably end up taking a Florida Tkachuk prop and Point or Stamkos to score as well for Tampa.
Notable Goaltenders that I saw as confirmed.
Varlamov for Islanders
Comrie for Buffalo
Also I know Graeme has mentioned the Flyers vs Stars game as a personal play for him. It looks like we’ll be getting Ersson vs Wedgewood for that game just to update everyone who might be expecting Hart and Oettinger.
Carolina has had Aho and Freddy Andersen injured their last few games so check their availability if looking at anything in the Avs – Hurricanes game. Canes will probably go with Kochetkov because Raanta has not looked sharp at all to start the season. Kochetkov also allowed two goals on 17 shots vs Seattle after they pulled Raanta. I think the Over 6 is really sharp by Graeme and I’ll be backing that one as well.
Yep those two are confirmed that’s a surprise. Moves the bet a lot more into gamble territory and less faith in Flyers now due to Ersson last year.
Yeah woulda been great if you coulda got a Hart vs Wedge situation. Lines stayed the same so far. Total still set at 6 with some books showing a 5.5 available at over -138. I haven’t watched any games from either of these teams. Stars have been an under first three games and the two backups put this in an even bigger unknown category for me. But the 5.5 is jarring to the eye when seeing so many games set at 6.5 and 7 to start the season.
I like Kraken over 30 shots, they´ve had 36 and 33 last two against Colorado and Carolina. With Quick probably getting his first start of the season for Rangers I like TT over 3 as well
My one and only favourite tip site!
Cheers from Finland, Great stuff you guys! Been following this site for a few years now but this is just the first time i write here. Love to drop a dime in there and believe in your awesome pre-game analysis.
Im also very passionate about ”American football” and a die hard Raiders fan. I didnt know you make football tips also?
Where is it possible to see your NFL writing?
Great to have you comment it’s one of my favourite parts of running the site is seeing all the comments.
Yeah I do betting tips – I offer free ones at https://www.sportsbettingtips.org and half of them are hidden behind a Patreon.
I’ll also be doing NHL advanced metric analysis on the Patreon on the days that Scott writes tips here.