Written by Graeme on Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
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Well a 1-1 day on my first official day doing tips. I’ll take it.
Got the win with the Avs/Hurricanes over in quite easy fashion. Massive 2nd period there with 7 goals to put it over.
Panthers lost against the Canucks. If I’m going to lose a bet, I at least want to get some entertainment out of it and that’s what we got in that game. It was a very even game and that unfortunate double salvo by the Canucks was the difference maker. Crushing for the Panthers to pull it back only to blow it right away as well.
Looking back at my analysis yesterday, generally happy with it and a tad frustrated at a couple of missed opportunities such as a value play on the Wings. But that’s a good thing to be feeling like that after just one full day of betting tips. Nothing where I am looking at and thinking “Whew – glad I didn’t back that one”.
Alright so for the mailing list people I’m running my first big test today with a different provider. If there are any issues let me know.
A quiet schedule today let’s get to it.
Red Wings vs Flames:
Wings coming off the solid victory over the Sens to make it 4 on the trot. Now they head to Calgary, who are a perfect 1-0 at home and had the day off yesterday.
Flames at about 1.74 odds and Wings 2.15 and without diving into anything, I’d probably agree with that. Looking at the metrics, the Red Wings metrics are actually generally pretty good. Corsi and Fenwick are a bit weak but some solid overall metrics.
Factoring in the B2B and home/road split, odds seem right about on the money here.
Ducks vs Bruins:
Ducks coming off the Coyotes loss yesterday. That Coyotes offense didn’t light them up like some people expected, and the Ducks had a good amount of changes but couldn’t convert.
Bruins with the solid win last night. I’ll be honest I was drifting in and out of consciousness on my couch watching most of that game, but it looked like Boston were a tad fortunate. I don’t really see anything worth betting here. I think Bruins are over-favoured to the point there’s slight value on the Ducks. Not enough for me to advise it. More just one of those kinda long shot bets that does have some actual merit to it.
Zip today. Flames playing 3rd game in 4 days, and Detroit on a back-to-back. Boston on the road with both Boston and Anemic on back-to-backs. Boston played a very good LA team yesterday. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a lethargic Flames effort and with both Boston and Anemic taking a lot of penalties, probably trash hockey today.
CONSIDERATION FOR TUESDAY GAMES;
I’ve heard interviews with more than a few NHL and ex-NHL players, who said that regarding back-to-backs and exhaustion levels, that it’s not necessarily the second game of a back-to-back that wipes them out (although that’s quite possible, depending on how the first game went, and how rested they were before that first game), it’s that first game AFTER 1 day off AFTER the back-to-back, where they feel wiped out. That makes a lot of sense, they’ve typically drained themselves of energy and need more than 1 day to recover. NHL players put out extreme levels of aerobic and good levels of anaerobic effort, and tired players are more prone to injuries. >>> Regarding the second game of a back-to-back, especially if the first game or both games of the back-to-back are standard effort or can be managed with less than full effort, or with players rested strategically through that time period, so they don’t get exhausted, players may NOT feel exhausted in the second game. If a team gets a sustainable lead and can shut down their opposition, or by contrast have no chance or for some reason just decide to take it easy, they can more easily coast through a game, expending less energy, share the effort strategically between forwards and defense, wind out the clock and save themselves for the next game.
Slight terrified lean for a Boston win since they still have Chicago to play before their road trip ends, and they may be shooting for the Presidents trophy, foolishly, again. If Boston scores 3 goals, they probably win. Boston has a very strong defense.
I’ve also felt the same about back to backs making more impact the game immediately after the final day of the back to back. When i workout legs, I feel fine day after and am surprised how great I feel cuz I was expecting to feel sore. I then continue to workout because of how great I feel and don’t wanna break my rhythm and routine. Two days later I can’t walk up a flight of steps lol.
It also potentially doesn’t get accounted for in the line pricing, whereas the actual second game of the back to back might get over accounted for. Bettors have been trained to auto play against the team on the back to back when it has actually already been built into the price. But don’t really look at the 3 games in 4 days scenario especially if it’s all with travel as well. It’s a big contention with NBA players and why they sit guys so frequently and want a shorter season.
Personally I like the spot only if the team wins both legs of the back to back.
So the Flames are in that spot now with this game being the game immediately after the back to back. It’s also the fifth and final game of their road trip so they are also potentially looking ahead to getting back home which is also a potential factor for a flat spot for them. People tend not to work as hard or be as productive on Fridays as they do on Mondays and Tuesdays. Same can be said for a team on the road for a week and about to go home.
They are also going against a red hot team who would like to keep that going. And the Wings have a decent backup on paper in Reimer. Flames have also had some inconsistent results metric wise scoring less than expected, and conceding more than expected. But Flames did lose their most recent game so might come out playing hard. As road favorites in this situation they are a stay away for me. I wouldn’t be surprised if Red Wings keep it going with a win and I also wouldn’t be surprised with a Flames win -1.5. I’m hoping the Red Wings do win today though so I can potentially play against them Tuesday at home vs Seattle though.
In that case if Red Wings win today and looking at minutes and game flow, they would be a potential bet against vs Seattle on Tuesday. The win/win on both legs of the back to back, would have them as a 5-1 team at home vs a 1-4-1 Seattle team. Also the freshest thing in bettors minds would be them beating the Senators on the road, and the Flames as home dogs. The instinct will be to take them as home favs vs a 1 win team, not factoring in the potential delayed fatigue effects. The positive results as opposed to a loss can also allow a team to let up if you will, in a long grind season.
For me the Flames as favorites on the road splitting their back to back is a stay away. Assuming The Red Wings can win here, they would become a bet against vs Seattle, because I should get solid plus money value, without any of the potential fatigue factored in. Public bettors will be heavily on Detroit based on results and anyone who took Flames today and lost will not be eager to go against Detroit again further driving up Seattles price.
Flames Reg with 2.5 units
With 2,5 units??
Detroit Larkin to score +190. half unit.
I picked Larkin to score, because I think he will be heavily relied on for offensive production.
DeBrincat has been hot, and is absolutely enjoying playing back home in Michigan. But going with the flat theme here, might be a down day for him. Took a hard hit into the boards late in first period by Ridly Greig that I actually thought was clean. DeBrincat bounced right up and finished the game, but might not be feeling 100 percent. Finished with just one shot. I’ll need him to be more of a passer than shooter here today lol.
I was thinking the Red Wings could ask more offensively out of their d-men, like maybe Walman could score. But too many unknowns for me to hone in on which if any it would be with confidence.
Late Post but Boston Lindholm could record a Power Play Point against his former team at +400.