Written by Graeme on Thursday, October 24th, 2024
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It wasn’t a good couple of days for the Philadelphia Flyers, as the Capitals blasted them on back to backs.
We’re a few weeks into the season now, and things are looking tight. The Atlantic Division in particular is looking very close. The Capitals are the surprise package so far in the Metro.
The Winnipeg Jets are unbeaten and dominating the Central, and the Flames are leading the Pacific while the Oilers have been a complete disappointment.
Let’s look at Thursday’s slate – going forward, advanced metrics will be based purely on regular season. We are currently 8-1 with our bets.
Bruins vs Stars:
Boston come in as slight underdogs in this matchup. Metrics all pretty much point that way. Very close. I assume Swayman is in net. If he isn’t, I’d say hop on the Stars.
Rangers vs Panthers:
Rangers decent favourites here. Their offensive stats are immense, as has their goaltending. Panthers not coming in on a high either. I’d have to back the Rangers in regulation and this looks to be their trickiest tie so far, so happy to pass.
Lightning vs Wild:
Tampa favourites here. Their GA/60 is very concerning. So many erratic games from them I don’t feel good backing much. Over is tempting but I have a ferw concerns against this Wild team in that regard and if they can score.
Red Wings vs Devils:
Detroit come in on a winnung run. The Devils – the jury is still out on them. There are a lot of high expectations for that team, so we’re seeing them favoured a bit too much at the moment. I do expect them to come good and go on a killer run a bit later in the season.
So it’s where the metrics come into play as it takes out all of that personal bias.
Corsi is way in the Devils favour, as is the Fenwick and the SF%. GF% as well, xGF% the same. Sigh. I was hoping we might get a sneaky play on the Wings here but the metrics don’t play ball. Only thing Wings have going for them is goaltending.
Leafs vs Blues:
Leafs coming off that Jackets loss. Blues lost to the Jets and have been a mixed bag this season so far.
Corsi/Fenwick quite close. Even xGF% is. Blues better SCGF%.
I’m not confident enough to back them, but in this game, the Blues are pretty decent value in my opinion. Leafs do have a better advantage when its 5 vs 5 data.
Flames vs Hurricanes:
Flames unbeaten in regulation this season. The Canes struggling to get in the rhythm. When you rely on advanced metrics, betting against the Canes is always tough because they are a juggernaut in them, season after season.
The Flames metrics aren’t too bad though. This feels a bit more 50/50 than the odds dictate. There’s picks I’ll make because I feel confident that it’ll win. Then there’s picks I’ll make where I don’t feel as confident, but I see enough value to back. This is the latter. Most power rankings list the Canes as #1, and it is a bit tricky when we look at the opposition each team has faced.
This will be a good “where they at” game for the Flames and they might be found out here – but we’ll see how it goes.
Flames incl OT/SO if Wolf is in net.
Ontario: 2.40 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.42 Odds at Bovada
USA: +142 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.40 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/24 8:52:24 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Utah vs Avalanche:
The Avs are starting to tick and that’s not good news for Utah. Their GA/60 is concerning but that seems to be settling down last few games.
This one is a bit tight, but I give the advantage to the Avs and by the metrics I thiiink they are worth a play. It’s borderline, but seeing the improvement by Colorado, I’m gonna take them.
Avs incl OT/SO if Annunen in net – I mean Georgiev might be fine just that one bad game but I’ll stick with that.
Ontario: 1.77 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.77 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -128 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/24 8:52:24 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I will warn you – both those plays feel a bit “loose” to me in terms of what I often pick. It can happen early in the season and occasionally need a little losing slap in the face – so just a heads up about that. I mean the fact that I am taking a favourite at those odds but not in regulation kinda says it all in terms of confidence.
Kraken vs Jets:
Odds seem pretty close here. At 1.80 for the Jets, maaaaybe some slight value on them actually. But it’s very close.
Kings vs Sharks:
Kings should win but we’d have to take the handicap, and the data doesn’t back it up.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
I take Dallas to win @ 1.862 with 2 units
It’s really strange how the odds have flipped.
For me, Dallas is clearly the favorite. I don’t think Boston will win that many games in a row against Dallas, especially since Dallas is really strong defensively. The last performances of both teams also clearly point to Dallas for me. Do you think the bookmakers have faked the odds a bit? I have no idea. My only regret is that I bet so early, because otherwise I’d have better odds.
I personally still felt Boston should have been slight favorites being at home, but didn’t have too much issue with Dallas originally being favored based on early performances.
That’s not an opinion on who I think wins the game though. I have no real feel for this game and wanted to see how both teams perform.
I think the odds have flipped because DeSmith is starting for Dallas and not Oettinger.
So I think early money came in on Boston cuz they were getting them as slight home underdogs. And then that momentum continued once goaltenders were announced.
I wouldn’t let it sway you if there’s something you saw and liked about Dallas for this spot. As long as you don’t mind the switch to DeSmith in net.
Good luck and hope it comes thru for you.
Thanks mate. Looking at the Dallas goaltender stats, they are both capable of winning this game.
A lot of tempting games here but the early season situation puts me off most.
Full game UNDER 7.0: Canes/Flames
To WIN moneyline: Rangers and Jets
Lean: puckline win: Rangers
I think the Flames game will be close, not a lot of penalties either, so can’t pick a side. The total should have a hard time getting above 5, but 6 is too risky for me with that much fire power out there. The Flames offense, defense and goaltending are for real. They don’t slow down.
Florida Schmorida, they don’t scare anybody, neither do the mobsters in that state, the Rangers are tuned up and on all cylinders. Rangers could wipe out the Panthers here, and the puckline is tempting.
I can’t see how the Kraken can beat the Jets. But since when does everything go the way I want it to? I feel more certain about the Rangers tonight, but the Jets just look so strong. The Jets have the LEAST total penalty minutes of all teams in the league.
FYI Thomas out for Blues. Huge loss
Goaltender notes
I think Woll is making his debut for Toronto.
Fleury is getting the start for Minnesota vs. Tampa. I’m seeing Vasilevskiy listed as LIKELY, though still not official last I checked.
DeSmith will start for Dallas vs Boston. Swayman has also been confirmed.
Vejmelka confirmed for Utah against Colorado.
Annunen listed as Likely for Colorado last I checked.
I saw Vladar is confirmed for the Flames.
Know I’m on an island, but I’m getting Florida at +136 in my area and I gotta take it. Wanted to write a little more making a case, but I’m still at work and the game is about half hour from starting. This is still mostly a play based on the price that the Panthers are going at. If it was lower it’d be a pass. But I don’t see much value in taking the Rangers at current price personally. It’ll probably backfire but I’m ok with taking the risk of this one not cashing.