Written by Graeme on Friday, October 25th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Another winning night, as we went 1-0 yesterday with the Colorado Avalanche getting a nice and easy victory. What a great start to the season.
Of course, I am full of regret due to this one:
“I’m not confident enough to back them, but in this game, the Blues are pretty decent value in my opinion.”
I didn’t see the Blues blowing them out like that, but it’s a kicker not backing that at 2.90. But that’s the reason we switched years ago to covering every single game – so that hopefully, you get a nugget like that in the analysis and roll with it.
Big win for the Stars, even with Swayman in net which was interesting.
Four games today, let’s have a look. And then Scott takes over until I am back on the 30th.
Knights vs Senators:
Knights favoured in this one. They just had a solid 6-1 win over the Kings. Ottawa are a bit hard to figure out at the moment.
Sens better Corsi and Fenwick and SF%. Knights scoring more but higher than they should be. Conceding less but should be conceding more so goaltending helping. Very similar for the Sens.
There miiiight be razor-thin value on Ottawa here, but not enoughf or me to back. Like they are 2.30 and I’d maybe see them at 2.20.
Devils vs Islanders:
No rest for the wicked, as the Devils play on a back to back following their loss to the Red Wings. The Islanders with just the one regulation win this season are well rested.
Like I said yesterday – I look at Devils games with such interest as they are overpriced at the moment. A similar case here. Is there enough to back the Islanders though? Better Corsi and Fenwick by a decent amount.
They aren’t scoring but they are creating the chances. Devils goaltending has been slippy too. Islanders have a solid GA/60 and an even better xGA/60.
Duclair being out hurts the Islanders in terms of conversion, but they HAVE to start scoring more. Could be a good spot tonight with how the Devils goalies are performing.
Islanders incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/25 9:10:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Predators:
Preds on the road but hefty favourites at 1.58 odds. Hawks lost two on the trot. Preds JUST picked up their first dub of the season. I can’t back them based on that.
Looking at the actual metrics – man their CF/60 is freaking nuts. But by all the other metrics – yeah they should be favourites, but I wouldn’t bank on them in regulation. It could be tight.
OIlers vs Penguins:
The 2-4-1 Edmonton OIlers are the biggest favourites of the day as they host the Pittsburgh Penguins. They should be favoured – probably not by that much, but it’s also tough to look at the metrics and see the Penguins winning. I mean they could – but the data doesn’t back it up. No bet.
Don’t see much I can figure out today, but I like the
Full game OVER 6.0 for Ottawa/Vegas.
Free money?: same game OVER 5.0
Both teams shoot, score and get scored on in buckets. Both teams have had two days off and so will show up with full energy for 60 minutes. Both are playing well right now. I can’t see how the game will stop at 4 goals.
To add some information:
My system points to Vegas and New Jersey to win like 66% each.
But I skip it, because the data is not on peak, because we are still early in the season.
And the odds are too low. 😛
Instead I took Yankees (Baseball) to win today.
Good luck to all.
I know the game will have started before I post this but it turned into a no bet anyway. I was looking for the over 6.5 at plus money in the Ottawa vs Vegas game when original line came out. However, they had been hinting at Ullmark possibly coming back, so I wanted to wait for goalie confirmations for both teams. They were kinda slow to post today. My hopes were we’d get Forsberg vs Samsonov, then I’d bang that over 6.5.
However we are getting neither as it’s Ullmark vs Hill. So it’s a pass as I think this might go Under 6.5, but I wasn’t convinced enough.
I know if you look stat wise Samsonov has been the way better goalie for Vegas, but I was expecting possible regression for him. If you look Samsonov has a 100 percent quality start rating so far this year. Yet career wise, he’s 50 percent. And coming off a year that was even worse than that. Also telling is the fact that Vegas is going with Adin Hill for this game and setting up Samsonov to play the Sharks game tomorrow.
This tells me not even the team is buying Samsonov’s hot start. And doesn’t think there’s any real long term issues with Hill. So you’re telling me the guy with the .944 save percentage is playing the Sharks game, and Hill is playing the game vs an Ottawa team that’s averaging 3.67 Goals For Per Game?
So that’s got me off the Over. Don’t know if it will matter at all. Curious to see how it plays out though.
Dunno if anyone actually benefits from this random take on how Vegas lined up their two goalies for this weekends back to back. I’ll try and give quick look at the other games but I’m kinda running out of time and doubt I’ll find anything.
Also noticed Ottawa already up 1-0 three minutes in, so maybe I was wrong and completely was overthinking it.
Congrats on the start to the season Graeme. Even with the leans. Enjoy reading the game write ups everyday and respect all the hard work you put in. Good to see it paying off.
Thanks mate – appreciate it. I’m sure variance will catch up and balance it out shortly, but always nice to get off to a hot start!