Written by Graeme on Friday, October 28th, 2016
Follow @BetNHL
A poor performance by the Flyers defense and Steve Mason in particular led to the Flyers losing 5-4 at home to the Coyotes in a disappointing result last night. That was a frustrating one.
The Jackets game was also disappointing with the Sharks goals coming from two power plays and an empty netter. Jackets did enough to make it look like an +EV bet regardless, but they’re really missing that spark – that one player who can turn things around for them. I expect we’ll see similar value plays on them throughout the season.
Lot of upcoming games in the NHL – some busy days ahead.
Let’s get to it:
Blackhawks vs Devils Betting Tips:
This is a tricky one because it’s hard to count on the Blackhawks this season. Their penalty kill stats in particular are atrocious and the Devils have been pretty solid on the power play thus far. Crawford has been struggling as well. Kinkaid is in net for the Devils tonight which makes it more appealing.
We’re going to up the value by taking Blackhawks in Regulation. We’d rather lose that one at the higher odds than win at the lower odds due to the crap shoot which is OT.
Canada: 2.25 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +110 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds at 888 Sports.
Avs vs Jets Betting Tips:
The Avs are playing at home for only the 2nd time this season. the first game saw them win 6-5 over the Stars. They’ve had a long break since that loss against the Panthers and are going against a Jets team who have played quite a lot of games this week.
One of the big things about Colorado this season is their fast pace and they should be able to take advantage of it here. This would be a bad game for them to lose. Got to take Avalanche in regulation here.
Canada: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline..
Canucks vs Oilers Betting Tips:
Both teams started strong to the season. One of those teams had their bubbles burst, however the Edmonton Oilers are still going strong.
It’s hard to be convinced by the Oilers – unless you live in Edmonton of course. I mean other than the Sabres game this season, Cam Talbot is seeing 30+ shots per game against him. That’s crazy and it’s all going to come crashing down eventually.
However the Canucks have the lowest shots on goal percentage in the league. So we’re going to take Oilers to win here and hope that bubble remains intact a little bit longer.
Canada: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline..
Flames vs Senators Betting Tips:
A tip mostly based on the goalies. Senators are without Anderson and are going with Hammond who has been disappointing for them since that sick playoff run. While the Flames had a tough start to the season they look to have found their form as has Elliott. Two gritty tough wins on the road against the Hawks and Blues, plus two good battles against the Canes and Blues. If the Oilers are for real this season then that 3-4-1 record with 2 losses to the Oilers isn’t as bad as it seems.
Flames to win.
Canada: 1.77 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -135 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.77 Odds at 888 Sports.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
WHL Betting Tips(6-1, +3.92u): Prince George Cougars to win at 1.77 odds.
WHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
3 from 3 last night. Not bad.:)
For tonight: Devils, Avalanche, Ducks and Canucks.
Also i’m prety surre Sabres win with Cats.
2-1 last night, just missed on the Leafs/Panthers over. I like the Rangers and Oilers tonight.
@BlueLineBets on Twitter
did you parlay that combo? good value there
I did sprinkle a little on that parlay. Good eye.
@BlueLineBets on Twitter
I like the picks except BH, perhaps I´m been too logic, IMO Devils have more win chances, because from last 3 games BH has lost 2 and with leafs was very close to loose as well; nevertheless I can recognize you go beyond and make a difficult predictions perceiving when pendulum swifts for a team in a giving time so maybe this is the time for BH to win.
Regarding magus1349 picks (who has been assertive) I wonder about his Canucks pick…it is the time for Oilers to finish his good trend and the opposite for Canucks, it is time they finish their bad trend? Maybe, although too risky, it is worth it give them a shot?
I think it’s not worth betting on this game, because I (and I think others too) was surprised by the performance of the cannucks and now it just ended the last 3 games. Oilers had a big game against the caps and here you can see sometimes kind of perfomance issues like beating the best team and in the next when you expect them to handle this, they just lose. Maybe that’s magnus point and additional the surprising performance of the cannucks. But at all I won’t go with this. A normal person would like the oilers to win and that is Okay, but with some expierience you can feel the shit happen.
The odds played a big factor in us taking the Oilers. If they were 1.8 or below we’d stay away but the higher they go up the more tempting they become and we felt this was the right price based on the way both teams are going at the moment.
But we know exactly what you’re talking about and we’ve seen it so many times before 🙂 That team who look unstoppable pounding everyone then they host Buffalo and get destroyed etc.
Thanks! I just wanted to say thank you for your work. I just registered last night to disqus because I felt like I want to talk to other nhl gamblers. I’m following your thoughts for years now. And I’m really glad that this site exists. Just keep it up, I’m already kind of a fan! 🙂
I hope I can take some part here in the comment section in the future to improve thoughts about picks! I also created programs to analyse nhl games and they give me some profit every year. My bets are based on value and similiar performance of the teams – just that you know, if u ask someday: what is he betting!? :))
Awesome – good to have you aboard 🙂 And yeah we tell people a lot throughout the season on here not to blindly follow us. Make your own mind up etc and just use us as one of many resources. The comments are good for that too because people will post their different opinions and sometimes we’ll place bets on games we weren’t going to due to the comments on here etc. Looking forward to the discussion 🙂
But in this case Oilers are on the road vs a division opponent. Oilers are hot and Canucks are going in the opposite direction. Oilers are going to come out and give Nucks a pounding. In fact, great value here: Oilers( 1st Per) -½ +170
First of all, i never say i’m a normal person.:))
Good. Now let’s see over Oilers games. They like when they are underdog and the other team play very aggresive. It happen with Jets, it happen with Caps. Good defense and waiting for other team errors. This time i think Canucks will be a little bit cautious. Other news, yes, every nice story has a end in NHL, Canucks win last 2 game with them and my poor english stop me to write more reasons. I’m not so sure Canucks win, but i’m prety sure Oilers will lose.
Wee will see!
No, you seem to have nhl betting experience. Thanks for this thoughts. But this:
I’m not so sure Canucks win, but i’m prety sure Oilers will lose.
makes me think you hate the oilers. 🙂
Is just bussines, no hate.:))
I see it the other way. I think Oilers come out flying to make a point against a division rival. They are faster, more motivated, better goaltending and are very confident right now.
I agree. The oilers should have a ton of confidence after that win against Washington and their offense is flying right now.
@BlueLineBets on Twitter
I just have this one problem:
If they are so damn good, why they lose games? 😛 I think ppl in betting are sometimes a bit electrified by scores, and getting surprised in the following games. I think this is one point where for example betting newbies lose. I had also to handle with such problems in my thinking about bets. For today the oilers could easy win and also colorado and maybe they will do so, but this happens not as much as one of the opposite teams will win and then you have more value on your bet! At all good luck! I have the same feelings on the oilers and colorado, but my experience leads me to do the other. 🙂
It was a tricky one for us for sure. And it’s a bit hard to explain but both of us were on the same page in terms of the bet – neither of us felt comfortable with Blackhawks to win including OT/Shootout. However we both felt a lot better with taking in regulation. It was a tricky one to make though as it’s hard to rely on the Hawks at the moment.
Value bets for me (having no ODD for Sabres):
Jets ML @ 2.45 with 1 unit
If Jets lose & ODD for Sabres ML is over 2.15 I take
Sabres ML with 2 units
else if Jets win & ODD for Sabres ML is over 2.15 I take
Sabres ML with 1 unit
else
I wait for the next value bet.
Sabres aren’t playing tonight.
They play very early and surely the game will start before October 29th, 2016 NHL Betting Tips will start.
That was my reason. Probable Alanson think the same.
Must say I’m from Germany. Last game this night for me is @ 4:05 a.m. And Buffalos play @ 7 p.m. here. Same day for me, but therefore my bookies have no odds for the sabres game for now.
Sabres ML @ 2.2 with 1 unit
Can’t back the BH tonight. They are 0-2 on the road so far and have a GA of 3.43. Crawford is 1-3-1. Yes they have a high GF, but Devils play tight D (GA 2.0) and I think that they will step up to give Kincaid a lot of support. Kincaid is not a slouch, he’s an experienced NHL goalie. Chicago’s PK is 46.2% and Devils is 90%. I see a tight game with Devils winning 3-2 in reg or OT.
Got to take Blueshirts tonight. They have been very solid this year and the Canes are in disarray. NYR have been scoring in bunches and have won last 5 of 7 including last 3 in a decisive way. They have the edge on both sides of the ice and definitely in the goal. Ward has GAA of 4.02 and Rangers have best GPG in the league. ML -125 is very undervalued. I also have NYR in reg +125, scoring 2.5+, PL +225 and game o5.5 at +120. 5 of the last Canes games have gone over 5.5.
AVs are well rested and Jets played last night. It’s always tough playing in Denver but especially on a back-to-back. Hutchinson is pretty leaky so I see o5.5 and Avs puck line as the only bets with real value.
Flames / Sens – the only sharpish bet is to shade Hammond. He’s probably rusty and gave up 5 goals last time out. This gives Flames the edge, especially because Elliot has been on fire. No bet but I’d take Flames in reg and puck line.
Love the Oilers over the Nucks tonight. Edmonton has been on fire winning 6-1 and tied for 1st in GF and 8th in GA. In the last 4 games they have held their opponents to FOUR goals! After going 4-0 to start the season Nucks have returned to earth and gone 0-3 with GA close to 4. Talbot is really good and Miller is so-so. Oilers are going to score a lot of goals and this is going to be a lopsided game.
CBJ / Ducks no bet, these two teams are too unpredictable.
one parlay: Rangers ML + Oilers ML
GLTA
disclaimer: I am an amateur gambler and do not pretend to be a professional handicapper. My bets are usually relatively small bets. I have reasons for making my bets, but do your own due diligence and follow my bets at your own risk.
I love your Picks
Wondering what you loved about his picks?
NJD over CHI = LOSS
NYR Money Line = LOSS
NYR in REG = LOSS
NYR OVER 2.5 Goals = LOSS
NYR -1.5 = LOSS
NYR vs CAR OVER = LOSS
Five bets on a single game goes against the most fundamental rules of sports betting and it’s a tell-tale sign of someone who is addicted to gambling.
COL -1.5 ATS = LOSS
COL vs WPG OVER 5.5 = LOSS
As a public service to novice bettors, who may get sucked in by all his bravado and fancy talk, SanDiegoBruins should spell “disclaimer” in all capital letters and move it to the top of his picks.
I think you are looking for to much trends which just don’t happen. Maybe you could get more profit from laying such thoughts – just an idea.
thank you for the comment. I definitely need to reassess my approach. I try to apply statistical analysis and also consider the emotional aspect but my success rate is not good. Last night it seemed that the Rangers were the much better team than Carolina. Was it the travel? Let down because Canes are a weaker team and NY has been on a hot streak? Maybe Carolina responded because they have not played well and were home versus a better team? I don’t know. I welcome your additional thoughts
I didn’t watch the game. By trying to point the view on the canes or generally on underdog teams: they lose more games than favourites, but they are not playing to lose, so there are chances to score and in the end to win. Maybe losing several games in a row increases the percentage to be succesful in one following game (I cant proof this 🙂 ), if you look at a whole nhl season and especially if a team is without bigger injuries. Let me call it art of balance – you won’t see a healthy team losing 10 games in a row.
Your betting style is not like mine that makes it hard for me to see whats improvable. One of my golden lines is not to bet on to much games, I focus on single matches. It helps me a lot to have an overview about my money and my bets. And also I’ve never felt like being able to predict how games run: Who scores first, who second, overtime etc… and that’s why I’m not doing this.
I do think going in big on a team with multiple bets like that is a mistake. I mean based on your bets, you strongly believed Rangers would win a high scoring game in regulation with a result of 4-2. I do understand your line in thinking of betting the money line, regulation, handicap etc. Sometimes it all balances out, sometimes it works out extremely well and sometimes line last night it goes tits up.
I won’t comment on that particular game except to say that we also favoured the Rangers and understand your betting on them. We were looking at them probably for the same reasons you were. We decided against it however for a few reasons – one of which was the Canes first game at home. There were just enough question marks on that game to put us off it (and that’s one of the positives we have in trying to stick to 3 tips max – allows us to analyze and analyze again).
But overall I would recommend limiting the bets on one side to just the lone bet. You can increase your unit size to make up for all 3 bets – that’s where a 1-5 unit system can come into play. But even just from a mental perspective I bet it’d help. Like losing a 3 unit play on the Rangers in regulation probably isn’t as bad as losing 4 separate bets ya know?
And hey you called the Devils game being tight(dear god that Hawks PK is unreal) and even though I don’t think you bet it you were on the money there. Called Flames and Oilers correctly, and that Avs game was a really surprising one. I’d say you were on track last night and did well except for the multiple bets on the Rangers.
Graeme
Graeme, thanks for taking the time to provide the analysis and comments. I really appreciate the tip on limiting the multiple bets per side. I’ll tighten up there and see where it goes. Thanks for all that you and Scott do to keep this interesting. ~ Aron
2-1 last night . Flyers game was a heartbreaker. Habs and Wings were the winners for me.
For tonight, my top choice is the Devils. Pretty strong at home, Hawks have hard time on the road, Crawford is not in his game….Im positive itll be an easy one for the Devils. In regulation
My other choice is the Avs. Second game at home, they play a pretty fast game which will outplay the Jets. ML on this one for Avs.
Regardless the outcome of the Oilers-Nucks game tonight, I am going to be shading the Canucks after reading this article in the Vancouver Sun. There’s not much confidence in this team right now. They added Loui Eriksson to their first line with the Sedin’s and they just aren’t clicking. I was never a fan of Loui in Boston. Great hands and ice sense, but he doesn’t have the quickness to keep up in today’s NHL. http://vancouversun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/jason-botchford-is-a-faster-younger-nhl-about-to-pass-the-canucks-by