Written by Graeme on Friday, October 28th, 2022
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It was a disappointing 1-2 night yesterday.
It got off to a good start with the Bruins in regulation. It was a nice and easy win for the Bruins, with a great return to the NHL for Marchand. No rust on that guy.
The Kraken lost 5-4 to the Canucks. Krakens issue is glaring – a complete lack of goaltending. Canucks had like 3 shots on goal in the 3rd and 2 goals. Goaltending is such a mess there, as the rest of their metrics are generally fine.
Leafs deservedly lost to the Sharks. 7th worst GF/60, but 9th highest xG/60. They just aren’t converting right now like they should.
Let’s look at Fridays games:
Knights vs Ducks:
Knights are very heavy favourites here. Even -1.5 is 1.80 odds. They’ve covered that in their last four wins but there are a few tight ones in there. Ducks are just a right disaster at the moment.
Advanced metrics generally point towards the Knights. CA/60 is quite high at 62.38 and just slightly lower than the Ducks. Goaltending is helping them, but offense seems to be performing as expected. Same with the Ducks offensively (which isn’t a great sign for them).
Ducks have won of the worst HDCA/60 in the league, while Knights are 8th in HDFC/60. Which generally indicates that the Knights will generate some high danger chances here. Knights are a bit poor with converting those, bht the Ducks rank 9th worst for HDGA/60.
If we may have to rely on an empty net goal with the Knights -1.5, well Ducks have had 4 empty nets and just one conceded. Last year they were Top 6 worse for that. Knghts have played against 5 empty nets with one goal so far.
I dunno – the data is there to suggest -1.5 is probably a play, and the Ducks have been blown out a fair bit. Lot of hype for the Vegas defense at the moment but my data says that they are overperforming and we’ll start to see them concede more goals soon.
I did have that concern last week with Knights vs Avs which is why I stayed away in regard to the level of team the Knights have played against. Ducks are of course on that lower level.
I just can’t bring myself to back the Knights -1.5 here. I want to – which is why I’ve written so much – and performances against opposition similar to this indicate they cover. But I’m just not fully feeling it.
Blue Jackets vs Bruins:
Bruins coming in with the momentum from last night, and I expect will start Ullmark. Jackets rolling with Elvis who is on an 0.863 SV% with a 2-2 record. Jackets haven’t been too bad. Bruins no surprise are the better team practically across the board on the advanced metrics but it’s not overwhelmingly so.
The B2B is just enough of a factor to put me off. Corsi wise, starting to see the Jackets trend upwards. The Bruins had that messy second leg B2B vs the Sens Probably why they went with Swayman last night. Krejci out as well. Just enough factors to skip.
Devils vs Avalanche:
Devils had a brief successful road trip to Detroit, and now come home to host the Avs. Colorado have been a disappointment results wise this season. Devils are about 2.15 underdogs here. Not the odds you would have expected before the season began. Quite tight.
Devils are outperforming the Avs in most metrics. What is very impressive by the Devils, is they have an xGF/60 of 4.04, the current highest in the league.
Buuuut it hasn’t exactly been a murderer’s row of teams they have played to earn said xGF. Islanders hve the worst xGA in the season right now, Ducks #4 etc. Georgiev in net it sounds like and he has been a bright spot for the Avs.
This will be a big test for the Devils and we’ll see where they are at after this one. It’s one of those where the advanced metrics only tell part of the story. If you JUST look at those then boom, Devils are easiest bet of the day. But when you start looking at where they got those stats from, it’s not so obvious.
Hurricanes vs Islanders:
Surprised to see the odds on the Canes in regulation here. They’ve certainly stumbled a bit lately, but road trips can wear a team out.
Islanders did manage to get the big win over teh New York Rangers, but they haven’t shown anything this season.
As always, the Hurricanes have ludicrous advanced metrics. They have been looking great on the ice.
Having bet hockey so long, there’s not much that surprises me anymore. But this is one where I would be quite surprised not to see a Hurricanes dominant performance. The only thing I can think of would be if it is one of those infamous “let-down” spots we see in sports.
Hurricanes in Regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/10/28 11:01:15 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Penguins:
I think I’m resigned to never betting the Penguins on the road. I haven’t trusted them on teh road for years now. No bet on this one.
Coyotes vs Jets:
Coyotes record their second win of the season against the Blue Jackets. Anther fun high scoring affair. Jets on their second road game in a row after beating the Kings last night. The poor goaltending the Kings has helped the Jets last night.
That was a neat one as I wrote about it on the Patreon I run with my buddy Vin (where I post NHL advanced metrics analysis on days where Scott writes here). Called it pretty much on the money:
These two teams are incredibly close in CF% and FF%. So it’s a close matchup. The difference is poor goaltending on the Kings. The Jets though haven’t been able to take their chances. But an SCGA/60 for the Jets at 1.66 compared to the Kings 3.33 is nice. Looks like a potential upset game with the Jets winning.
As for this matchup? Jets are a team I always find hard to trust and they need to earn my trust more. Looking at the metrics, I feel like it signals an over. The Coyotes xGF/60 is low, but they’re converting well and the Jets should concede a few here. But the line is set at over 6.5 and just about 1.76 odds. Not sure how much energy the Jets will have on the B2B so skipping this one primarily due to that.
To WIN moneyline: Carolina
To WIN puckline: Vegas
Canes play in Philly tomorrow and then get 4 days off, so they should see tonight’s Divisional home game as one to win, as tomorrows will be that much tougher.
The entire Eastern Conference is very tight; apart from Boston, only 1 point separates all 8 teams in the Atlantic. In the Metropolitan, only 4 points separate all 8 teams. Every Conference game will be seen as very important in the east.
Vegas will likely win, Anaheim is playing VERY bad right now, they have one less point than Vancouver for crying out loud. This game breaks my 80/20 Rule > Vegas is a top team (Divisional), playing a bottom feeder team. Very dangerous, as too often the top team takes the day off. But I think Vegas is on an early season mission right now, it’s not the right time in the schedule to slack off, and their schedule is conducive to have adequate energy and focus today. The puckline seems likely.
Canucks will be thinking dynasty after winning yesterday, and the Pens on the road? Maybe $2 on a Canucks to win play money bet? Nah. Canucks get a few days off after that, so they should be snorting the hot peppers tonight.
Boston’s on a back-to-back, so off that, and both Winnipeg and Arizona will be so freaked out by playing in a doll house that it may be a 0-0 game.
Danton Heinen for Penguins and Kyle Palmieri to score for Islanders with 2 units
Posting this after the fact so it helps no one but i did take Vegas -1.5 at -120 odds. It being the first game your write up sumed up most my thoughts on it and I landed the same way as you. I also was wary to take them and looked for a reason not to. at the end of the day when i look at whether i should take the puckline where i don’t allow greed to be a factor which in this case still laying minus money, it isn’t, it checked off every box. I ultimately asked myself what more i would need to see out of vegas, and the advanced numbers from both teams, and the only answer was a better price lol. Plus money odds would be nice and i think a lot more people would be willing to jump on it then. I also agree about the vegas due for regression as far as the defense and goaltending numbers,but didn’t believe it would play as much of a factor against the ducks as in the scenario that gave u pause such as the avs. Currently sitting at Vegas 1-0 after the first so we’ll see how the game goes. During the broadcast during a recent game they made the point that Thompson and Hill have reason to perform for Vegas because they have to make playing time cases for when Lehner comes back. Which makes sense towards the possible effort by both to start the season.
Also gonna go Vancouver goalie Spencer Martin over 29.5 saves at -120. After watching yesterdays game Vancouver was absolutely bombarded with shots. Especially in the third period. 36 shots by Seattle and 16 more blocked shots including the last one by JT Miller to preserve the win last night. He had to be helped off the ice and i thought he broke his ankle but surprisingly they have him in tonight’s lineup. I wanted to take Pit in some way tonight but have been put off by two things. One is the pens not having Guentzel. This may change things for them in their bottom six as there’s a big offensive drop. Also the unknown of Spencer Martin. He struggled in his only game this year, but i looked at his game logs from his small sample size of last year and came away impressed. Never had a save percentage below 93. Also i believe he allowed 3 goals only once in six starts. This was to oilers and required 50 shots plus OT. He should have a dead team in front of him but could put on another heroic performance like the ones from last year so I’ll take the over 29.5 saves. I can’t imagine vancouver will be eager to block shots and am curious to see how miller looks. Someone could look to one of pitts top two lines for a mismatch for goal scorer props and that’s who i’m thinking they’ll have to rely on to score tonight.