Written by Graeme on Saturday, October 28th, 2023
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Welcome to Saturday, and a decent sized slate.
Glad I stayed away from the Knights -1.5 yesterday. I was concerned about the quantity of goals they have been conceding and the Hawks managed to put 4 past them for the OT win.
Also happy that Caps/Wild line was too high as that saved us there with that one struggling to get the goals. Neat to see the Canucks offense perform so well against the Blues. Binnington didn’t have his best outing.
We’ve got a 1pm game so let’s get right into todays schedule. Little bit late today due to a work call keeping me up until about 2am, but on the bright side we also booked a work trip to Columbus during the call. And the Jackets are playing then and holy moley are tickets cheap for that compared to Leafs, Habs etc.
Managed to snag two tickets, very front row, directly beside the Jackets bench for the same price it’d cost for one ticket in decent seats at a Leafs game. Very pumped for that.
Let’s get on with the tips:
Flyers vs Ducks:
Flyers had a pretty good start to the season. Ducks had a rough go of it but performing better and relly they have had a lot of tight games.
Looking through the metrics though, Flyers do look the much ore solid team.
I would have been all over Flyers in regulation here, except goalies just announced and it’s Ersson vs Dostal. Ersson is my concern. This is a no bet for me just based on that, although hopefully he has a solid redemption game. But with that and how tight the Ducks have been playing teams I can’t take regulation here.
Panthers vs Kraken:
Panthers with the solid win over the Sharks. Kraken are hard to figure out this early in the season.
The metrics lean slightly towards the Panthers. But I mean if I’m looking at the metrics, I’m thinking Panthers are probably about 1.74 here and that’s what the bookies are offering us. So it’s 0EV, or very slightly EV to take the Panthers here.
Bruins vs Red Wings:
Bruins coming off their first loss against the Ducks. I’m intrigued by the over in this one. Both teams solid at scoring, xGA/60 is pretty decent for it. The Bruins goaltending has been a big factor for them. If they go with Swayman can the Wings get past him enough?
I’m a it concerned with how they were unable to get by Hellebuyck. Thought they were a bit flat in that game until the 3rd period.
So for this one I am looking more into the goalie metrics. Looking at who the Wings have scored against. Swayman is 2nd best ranked for goals saved above expected, so have the Wings scored goals against similar goaltenders? Yes – Johansson. They have been fortunate to not really play too many other top goalies.
I’ll be completely honest – it’s early in the season. I’m still gathering data and being cautious, but I also want to make some bets even if they are more on the risky side. Would I take this same bet in December? It would be goalie dependent I think. If Swayman wasn’t playing I’d advise taking it.
Yeah let’s go with that as I just don’t feel right about it. Over 6 Goals incl OT/SO if Swayman is NOT in net
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.03 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +103 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/28 12:38:56 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Jets:
Oof. No thanks. Well actually lets look at the metrics. Both teams scoring a lot, conceding a lot. xG is actually pretty well in line with it. Could be a fair amount of goals in this one. Line is over 6.5.
Of course, last three games Jets have looked better defensively and Hellebuyck has been a big factor. But Brossoit looks likely.
Yeah this feels like a more easy bet to place then the last one on the over, based on the metrics.
Over 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -117 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/28 12:38:56 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Senators:
Not seeing anything really on this one. Odds seem about right. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sens upset them, but I don’t see enough to back it.
Predators vs Leafs:
Leafs are way too heavily favoured here for my liking. By the metrics I’m just not seeing it. Not enough to back the Preds or anything especially with the Leafs last two performances. Preds have been starting sluggish while Leafs starting better. If I were to bet anything it’d probably be to do with the 1st period lines and the Leafs having a good start. Might be worried with Samsonov too as he hasn’t been great.
Blue Jackets vs Islanders:
Islanders are fairly decent favourites here. Bit surprised by that – to me, this is actually a really close game. I can’t really split these teams.
So based on that, I feel there is value in the Blue Jackets to win. BUT there’s a difference in value, and actually thinking they will win. With all the penalties for the Islanders they were pretty impressive against the Sens.
I think there’s enough here to back Jackets incl OT/SO.
Ontario: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +129 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/28 12:38:56 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Rangers:
Canucks on the B2B. Big big dogs here. Huge test for them. By the metrics, there’s easy, easy value on them. Alas, the back to back is enough to put me off.
Kings vs Knights:
Bookis have this one as practically a coinflip. Both teams on the B2B which is iffy. By the metrics, I like the Kings here if they can keep up what they are doing offensively.
Both teams coming in with different momentum. Knights are all “oh we got the points streak to keep us going” but you know that first loss really hurt them. Kings meanwhile had that epic comeback.
I mentioned yesterday I was concerned about the Knights goaltending. They’re rolling with Thompson tonight I expect who has been solid. But this is a really good offense he is going up against.
B2Bs make me wary, but I’m gonna roll with Kings To Win Incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -108 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/28 12:38:56 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Anaheim +154. Half Unit
Not super crazy about this play. But I think the price has gotten into value range for the Ducks. Ersson starting for Philly helps this play a little bit.
Toronto -135
Florida -142 half unit
Vancouver +142 half unit
Also took a same game parlay in the Duck vs Flyers game more so to keep me entertained. Not really expecting it to cash.
Philly Tippett to score +220 paired with
Anaheim Zegras to score +270. This pays out +1210.
Nothing today or tomorrow. Slight lean tomorrow for an Over 6.0 in the New Jersey game. The game in Edmonton tomorrow could be too embarrassing to watch.
Put a late bet on Canucks and Kings last night. Those 3 goals against in under 2 minutes felt like a “Isn’t that typical” moment. Luckily the Kings came back!
Tonight:
Kraken in regulation. They’ve beat the Panthers in regulation 3 of 4 times and won both away games by 3 goals (4-1 Nov 21 and 5-2 Dec 22).
Leafs in regulation. They have a good handle on the Preds, they’re scoring and not conceding a lot on this away streak. They’re a stronger team and in good form. Think they’ll take this one.
Canucks in regulation. Impressive start to the season! And while Rangers’ start looks good, keep in mind all their 5 wins came against teams currently holding the 11th, 13th, 14th and 15th spots in the West and the jumbos in the East! Even if the Canucks are on a b2b I think there’s good value on them here.
Wings – Bruins under 5.5. Bruins have two over 5.5 and five under so far. Wings had an impressive start with wins against a couple of top teams, and they’ve been finding the net a lot, with over 4 goals per game avg. But the Bruins are different and very solid defensively, so I don’t see the Wings scoring a lot tonight. I don’t see the Bruins scoring a lot either.