Written by Scott on Wednesday, October 9th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
There was 3 games last night as the season got underway.
The Blues spoiled the Krakens home opener when they won 3-2 with Kyrou scoring twice. The Panthers were up 4-1 after the 1st and won 6-4 as they begin their title defense. Bennett scored twice in what was a chippy game.
The Utah Hockey Club never trailed and beat the Blackhawks 5-2. Guenther scored the first goal in Utah’s franchise history. Bedard didn’t score but he did have 2 assists.
5 scheduled for us tonight. Be sure to check the comments as Graeme is giving suggestions based on advanced metrics from pre-season data, and nailed the Utah in regulation win yesterday.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
This should be a fun game to watch no matter the outcome.
The Leafs added some much needed defensive help and switched their captains. Also adding Stolarz will help them in goal.
The Habs are hoping for their young stars to keep getting better. They added Laine but he go hurt and will be out for a few months.
On paper the Leafs should win this game. But this is game 1 and it is between two longtime rivals so I’m skipping.
Rangers vs Penguins Betting Tips:
This should be a good game.
The Rangers won the Presidents Trophy last season so the team will be expected to have another strong showing this year. They lost a few depth guys but brought in Reilly Smith and Sam Carrick. Plus if Lafreniere and Kakko can improve then they should be just fine.
The Pens are going once again with the again core. Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson were amazing players but their best days are behind them. This team hasn’t been in the postseason since 2021-22 and I’m not sure this year’s team has what it takes.
Rangers should win this one but it’s the season opener so I’m staying away.
Flames vs Canucks Betting Tips:
I’m not sure what the Flames plans are after the off-season they had. They lost their starting goalie and didn’t bring anyone in and are banking on Wolf to have a phenomenal rookie season.
The lost Mangiapane and Greer and replaced them with Mantha and Lomberg. As always now with the Flames if Huberdeau can find his old scoring ways then the team will do much better.
The Canucks made some moves which will help them. They already hat Miller, Pettersson, Boeser and Hughes and brought in DeBrusk, Sprong, Heineken and Desharnais. Only question is how healthy Demko will be this season.
Another game where on paper the Canucks win this with ease but I’m passing.
Avalanche vs Golden Knights Betting Tips:
This should be a good game and would be no matter the point in the season it’s happens.
The Avalanche have a good shot at winning the Central this year. As always they are led my MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar. Mittelstadt was a good pick up last year, Lehkonen is a solid depth piece and if Nichushkin can handle his off ice problems he will only.help this team more. It’s scary to think about the damage this team could do if Landeskog returns. A solid team defensively and they added Kylington and de Haan for depth.
The Knights lost a bunch of key players. Marchessault, Stephenson, Martinez, Mantha and Carrier. They brought in Holtz, Olofsson and Hagg. Also they brought in Samsonov as the backup. They are going to be a different looking Knights team.
Not touching just going to watch and enjoy.
Jets vs Oilers Betting Tips:
The Jets didn’t bring in anyone to replace the players they lost in Monahan, Dillon, Toffoli or Schmidt. So they are relying on Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers and Vilardi to all have big years. They did bring in Comrie and Kahkonen as backup goalies which is never a bad thing as Hellebuyck is one of the best but having capable help will ease his workload.
The Oilers lost some depth pieces and replaced them with Jeff Skinner, Arvidsson, Brown and Carrick. Kane will be out for a while too but if any team can withstand losing an offensive piece it’s the Oilers. I think the Oilers have a good shot at winning the Pacific and the addition of Skinner and Arvidsson will help big time.
Would lean towards an Oilers win but it’s game 1 and would need to take them -1.5
Alrighty so based on pre-season data, the Utah in regulation one was a nice win yesterday. Let’s look at the advanced metrics pre-season data for todays games:
– Habs have actually been more impressive than the Leafs. Of course you’re basing this off 6 games of pre-season each. But by that data, Habs could win this and I’d probably take the Habs here.
– Tightish one. Rangers conceding more but scoring more. Penguins nice high SCGF/60. Might be miniscule value on the Pens.
– Goaltending been the issue for the Oilers in pre-season. Jets offense been firing – could see an upset here if that data comes into the regular season.
– Flames generally the better team primarily due to their offense. Similar to the above – if you believe in the pre-season data, Flames offense could cause issues for the Canucks here.
– Knights look good to beat the Avs with superior offense & defense and just beating them all across the board in the metrics.
liked it more when you 2 where on the same page with the tips :))
I’m not sure what you mean – I’m just presenting potential betting based on the (likely junk) pre-season advanced metric data.
i know. but its the opposite what Scott wrote. the data points to a team, Scott to the other one. its no game that you both think will have the same winner. its so weird. i m no expert on nhl and i read your oppinions daily. today is confusing. anyway, my no knowlidge points to Vegas winning by +1.5.
Thank you anyway for what you both doing!
Scotts just giving his general opinion going off no data – as there really is no data right now to go with. I’m just going through the advanced metric data from the pre-season, and throwing that out there if anyone wants to consider that is all. Normally we’d just ignore the pre-season data altogether but I just thought it’d be a neat addition for people, and worth looking at to see if it means anything in real-time.
yeap. thanks!
Vegas wining by at least 2. 3.2 european odds. not bad :))
Ойлерз -1 в первом периоде !
Google translate has this as “Oilers -1 in the first period!” to save everyone work 🙂
First Inclination was to take Pittsburgh +124. It opened with Pittsburgh +105 and I think we are getting close to too much value to pass up if this continues to move.
However after more thought, I think I’m liking the Under 6.5 as a better option.
Jarry did have a down year by his standards but will need to bounce back for Pittsburgh to have any chance making the playoffs in the Metro. Shesterkin has just turned down a 8 year 88 million dollar offer and is reportedly seeking 96. He’ll now have to prove he’s worth that and should be highly motivated to do so.
Pittsburgh will once again be heavily reliant on an aging core. Crosby was the only one who really lived up to expectations and the Penguins haven’t really surrounded him with many weapons. O’Connor, Beauvillier, Bunting and Rakell are the projected wingers for him and Malkin. Their bottom six isn’t much better.
Out of the defense group, they’ll rely heavily on Letang and Karlsson, but not much else. Letang is 37 and entering his 19th season. Karlsson appears to be a bad fit and struggled to click on the Power Play.
Rangers had a great year last year, but may find it difficult to recreate the magic. A lot of their success came on the Power Play and they were pretty average when at 5 on 5. A disciplined game from Pittsburgh could see this stay at even strength, with few opportunities on the man advantage.
On the flip side Penguins had an abysmal Power Play last season ranking 30th. Both teams had solid Penalty Kills. Penguins PK was 10th and the Rangers were 3rd. Aside from this, both teams were two of the more disciplined in the league. Rangers were 7th in Power Play Opportunities Against. Penguins were about average tied at 15th.
Panarin had a monster year, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him regress to a high 20 to low 30 goal total he’s more accustomed to. They’ll be missing a key piece defensively in Lindgren, so we may see Trouba, Fox and Schneider focus more on their defensive assignments and be relied on for heavy minutes.
Pittsburgh also has an immediate back to back out of the gate, as they’ll travel to Detroit to take on the Red Wings Thursday. Early in the season with an aging core, could see the Penguins slow the tempo down here. They’ll also potentially have a rookie starting in goal for that game in Blomqvist, with Nedeljkovic already on IR. So it’s not hard to imagine them wanting to keep guys as fresh as possible.
I’m not really sure why this goal total is set so high. Pittsburgh lacks proven goal scoring beyond Crosby. The rest of the group is aging and many of the pieces put around him are unproven. The shooting percentages of the forwards not named Crosby or Malkin all hover around 10 percent or worse.
The Rangers did most of their damage last season on the Power Play. But were average at best when 5 vs 5. A regression there, or a disciplined game by Pittsburgh would take the Rangers biggest strength out of the equation. Pittsburgh Power Play struggled all season and they return with many of those same players. Most notably Karlsson who seems like a bad fit.
Jarry is a solid goalie and they’ll need to heavily rely on him and defense to keep them in games, especially early in the season. Shesterkin has 96 million reasons and all the motivation in the world to prove he’s the best goaltender in the league.
I couldn’t see any real value on sides in todays matchups. The closest two for me were Edmonton and Vegas, but I just couldn’t get there. My play will be on
New York/ Pittsburgh UNDER 6.5 at -125.
When it comes to potential goal scorers, Toronto has a few that immediately jump out. The most obvious is Matthews. He’s going at a pricey -135. I definitely like his chances to score but I don’t see much value there at the price. The other two options I like better based on the odds.
Tavares at +200 and Nylander at +145. I think at least one of these has a good chance of hitting.
In his career, Tavares has 67 goals in 131 games for the month of October. His 15.5 shooting percentage is also one of the higher splits for the month of October. Tavares tends to get off to fast starts. Against Montreal he’s scored 21 Goals in 56 games. 10 of which have come in 27 games since joining Toronto.
Nylander has put up back to back 40 goal seasons. He’s gotten off to decent starts the last three seasons. He’s scored 16 goals in 32 career games vs Montreal. 6 in 11 GP the last three seasons. He’s solid value at +145 when compared to what Matthews is going off at.
It should be noted though, no one on Toronto comes close to Matthews success vs Montreal. He’s scored 27 goals in 34 games against Montreal. Ultimately it’s up to you if you’re willing to lay the minus money here. You could consider the potential of him scoring two, but the value on this isn’t there for me either at +410 and lower. Matthews got off to a hot start last year, but has had occasional slow starts to some of his seasons. An other option could be Toronto over their team total if you are looking for a better way to attack this game as opposed to the money line.
Montembeault has been confirmed in net for Montreal. Last year he was 0-2 vs Toronto with a 4.90 GAA and .821 SV%. Montreal has a very young group of defensemen. Only Matheson and Savard have more than 3 years of experience.
To recap my plays are
New York Rangers/ Pittsburgh UNDER 6.5 -125
Toronto Tavares to score +200
Toronto Nylander to score +145
I also thought about Matthews. I get a 1.840 odd for over 0.5 goals, but I’m not into player props.
No bets, no leans, but these are important games to get past, so we start getting evidence of how these teams will shake out over the next few months. Pittsburgh predictably did zilch and I can see them missing the playoffs. They’re ownership and GM need to be completely replaced; they’re similar to Arizona. Many teams have done considerable roster changes and the balance I simply can’t diagnose yet. Whether they’re the better or worse teams, it’s too up in the air, but essential games to monitor! It’s only Game 1, so with Toronto, Rangers, Avs and Flames on the road, I’m not looking at props or O/U either. I’ll be watching for surprise performances out of teams and players……..
I liked what I saw out of Utah yesterday! Great skating. If they’re an up-tempo team, watch out, and with so many positives in their situation now, those players will be on a high all year.
I won both “Over” bets yesterday, because I could clearly see the trendlines. Today, nothing’s clear to me.
Thanks for the explanations. Do you have a Telegram or Instagram channel where you post your ideas?
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits. If that doesn’t put you off, you can also check out my telegram channel: mfsb1337
Units now: +0.99 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 1
Today Vegas don’t need to make a call.
I take Vegas to win @ 1.952 with 1 unit
We’re finally back boys!
Last night I put a “bet builder” on the Utah – Chicago game. 4 goal scorers (Guenther, Keller, Teravainen and Carcone). total goals over 6.5, under 2.5 goals for Chicago, Guenther 2+ shots on goal.
All of these hit, except Carcone who wasn’t in the squad, which voided my bet. Odds was 67/1. Of course they don’t just recalculate when 1 of the players to score isn’t playing!
Had 5 other bets yesterday:
Utah in regulation
Utah -1.5
Florida in regulation
Florida -1.5
Bet builder on florida game (same as Utah game with 4 goal scorers). This one lost
So 4 winners, 1 voided and 1 lost. That voided bet really annoys me still. Anyway.
Tonight I’ll be putting down different variation of bets on Leafs, Rangers, Oilers and Canucks. Might throw one at the Avs game too, but before looking more at the game I have no idea what I’ll do with it. Might leave it.
Finally the season is back though, and I see you guys are still analyzing, which is awesome! I look forward to reading your analysis every day. Thanks guys!
I remember before sports gambling was legal in my area and I was forced to bet through other means, and this sounds like some off shore Cayman Islands shit they did to you voiding that bet. Not saying that’s where u did it at, just it reminds me of my days having to deal with terrible books.
I get they get away with it by labeling it a “bet builder” and not an actual posted offering by them but that’s still shitty. My question is would they still have voided and refunded you if one of your other goal scoring legs didn’t hit? Cuz they can’t have it both ways.
If you have any book in your area that allows same game parlays, i would consider doing those types of bets there in the future. Only reason is I believe they would have to grade you out as a win not a void. I’m not absolutely positive of this though and don’t want to give out false and incorrect information. I currently use legal books operated in the state of NJ. So rules will obviously be different for everyone.
For reference last season I did a goal scorer parlay at DKNJ. One of the players was K’Andre Miller. He was a late game scratch due to illness and DNP. Everyone else in the parlay scored. Not only was I graded out, but I was paid in full and Miller was the highest odds of the parlay at +1400. They still graded this a win.
It’s an online bookie called Mobilebet. It’s one I trust, and the industry standard here in Europe does seem to be that when you have several bets on the same game on the same coupon, if one of the bets end up having no chance to win or lose (ex: player bet but player doesn’t play), the bet gets voided.
They would have returned the bet if another part didn’t hit as well, yeah. I’d prefer they recalculate the odds without the “void player” and let the bet stand instead though. That’s what it was like before. Think they’ve changed the rules a bit over the last few years.
For anyone using European online sites, make sure they’re recommended by people you trust, and make sure they have a license with the MGA (Malta Gaming Authority). Those who don’t tend to make up rules as they go.
@Graeme
How many units did you win last season? I don’t see the stats added here yet. Also, thanks for the tips! I’ve been following you guys for the past 5 years and really enjoy your work. I’ve also subbed on and off on Patreon!
I don’t have our overall stats at the moment. I stopped tracking them last year publicly, because we started October -8u, and received a flood of negative/toxic e-mails and comments from dummies who don’t understand variance etc. I’ve decided not to do regular updates whether it’s a winning record or a losing record, because I don’t want to feed into that. (Plus we never get the e-mails/comments when we’re crushing it – just if we rack up a few losses)
Checking my spreadsheet – my own personal stats based on posted pics for regular & playoffs looks to be about +36u although that could be off by a couple. I’m not sure what Scotts was – I know he was at -15u at some point with picks he posted around mid-season, but that got better by the end of the regular season.
When I get some downtime, I’ll go through last seasons data and compile it.
Thank you for the reply Graeme!
Sad that some people don’t appreciate what you guys are doing. One of the reasons I’ve been following you guys for so long and also subbed to Patreon is because of your love of the game. I feel your passion and I know that you are only sharing your knowledge with good intentions. Some people assume you are gurus and can get any tip right but that’s impossible. I have to give credit where it’s due, and you guys are awesome. Thank you Scott and Graeme! Let’s all have a great season.
Best
Emil
Yeah it’s something I’ve easily got used to over the years. You have a 12-0 streak and no-one says a word. You go 0-3 following that and get the hate haha. It doesn’t bother me at all.
But last year there was just a fair bit and it was pretty nasty during that opening stretch and it’s like man keeping track of stats can take a little bit of work – why bother putting in this work when it’s just resulting in the toxicity?
I like to do the stats end of the month. Reason is if I am not fully aware of how things are going, it won’t affect my picks at all if that makes sense. Like definitely if I have an 0-3 night it’s going to affect my next days picks. But on like October 22nd as a random day, I won’t know the specifics on how we are doing and I’m fine with that knowing it won’t affect plays. Then come November 1st whether October was a negative or positive, my mindset is its in the past.
And thanks appreciate the kind words.