Written by Graeme on Monday, May 6th, 2024
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A great start in the Hurricanes vs Rangers series with a fun game, and hopefully we see more of that. Those two teams are hopefully going to put up some bangers.
BTW a quick note on that and advanced metrics; I saw someone earlier saying the Canes will win that one overall due to their xG of 4.44 to the Rangers 2.18. But if you dive into that, all of that happened at the end of teh game. At the 2:19 to go mark, both teams basically had the same xG.
It’s basically that whole “read beyond the headline” deal. If you’re relying on advanced metrics, actually take the time to explore them and get the full story.
The Dallas Stars progressed to the next round.
We see the lone game today as the series between the Panthers and Bruins kicks off.
Panthers vs Bruins Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Bruins beat the Leafs in 7 games.
Round 1 wasn’t a high scoring series so they don’t have any crazy numbers but Marchand leads the team with 8 points. Pastrnak and DeBrusk both have 5 and Lindholm and McAvoy both 4. They will need guys like Coyle, Zacha and Geekie to start putting up some points to give them some depth.
The Panthers swept their rivals the Lightning. They are a pain in the ass to play against.
Bobrovsky looked great and when playing like he is the team has a shot each game. Tkachuk and Verhaeghe both had 9 points, Barkov had 5 and they also have Bennett who got hurt but will be back, Reinhart, Tarasenko and a good group of defensemen.
The Panthers are more rested after the sweep. The Bruins have the advantage in goal if they need to switch things up they also have the defensive play to slow down the Panthers. But as long as Bobrovsky can keep playing the way he has than I think the Panthers can get through this series. They have the experience gained from last years cup final too.
Im going with the Panthers -1.5 as the to win series odds are low.
Graeme: This is one I am very intrigued by and Game 1 will tell us a lot.
I said last week that I wasn’t sure what teams could handle this Panthers offense. But man – the Bruins are a fine contender.
In the regular season, the Bruins were able to stifle the Panthers and their offense in all games. Now to be fair the Panthers xGA was still over 3 in three of those games so goaltending was a big factor there. Boston will need Swayman to stay hot.
If we look at just the playoff metrics – considering they walked all over them, the Panthers Corsi & Fenwick aren’t THAT impressive. They scored the most GF/60 in the East though while having the 2nd best xGF/60 overall. Best HDCF/60 as well.
Bostons overall defensive metrics weren’t that great either – although tbf they WERE playing Toronto. But goaltending was a MASSIVE factor for them obviously. Their defensive metrics are very “mid”, as the kids say. That might be the first time I have ever used that in a sentence, but it actually sums it up very well here.
So I’m pretty conflicted here. When I glanced at these Sunday morning, I was leaning the Bruins. But now I look more at this and it’s like man – Boston look like they REALLY need Swayman to be hot.
Unfortunately, a lot of the metrics have swayed me more towards Florida. I’ll be honest with the Bruins price, I’ve spent a lot of time trying my best to find reasons within the data to back Boston.
But I’m just not seeing it. I’ll also go with the Panthers, and based on the odds, Panthers -1.5.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bovada
USA: +110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/06 8:37:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I have to think the Panthers take the series due to speed alone, plus they have depth in scoring and are relentless. Boston will get some goals but the Panthers offensive depth will overwhelm them. Not sure about Game 1, but at some point I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers win a game 5-0 to tip it all.
Unfortunately I’ll probably have no plays on game 1. My lean is Florida to win especially with them at home. I just don’t like the odds. Do I think Florida wins? Yes. But do I think Boston has a better than 38 percent chance to steal game 1? Yes. I don’t know how much higher the Florida line can get before I would take the other side based on value alone. Which makes me think we’re there with the current line.
I also lean to the Unders for this series. Though I’m not going to take it in Game 1, where things can be unpredictable. The closest bet I’ve thought about was a Boston Under Team Total. But couldn’t land on one.
I do think Boston can make this a series and have a good chance of winning Games 3 and 4 at home.
Boston did a good job limiting Toronto to just 1 Mid Danger Goal and 2 Low Danger Goals the entire series. If they can make Florida just as one dimensional, that gives the Bruins a chance. By the time the series wears on Florida might not be willing to continue to go to the High Danger areas if Boston can make them pay the price for it. They also have to make this an ugly series. I don’t think Boston can win a track meet. If Florida dictates the pace, I can only see the Bruins winning a game at best.
I think this can go 6 games. I also think at least 1 or 2 go to OT. But I’m not sure Game 1 is the game.
Lean Florida to win Game 1 and ultimately be dominant at home, but I don’t see the value in betting it at its current price.
Now that I look again, I’ll think I’ll go with Florida to score first goal -125. If Boston does end up scoring first, I can look to potential Florida live wagering lines if there’s value and better odds.