Written by Graeme & Scott on Wednesday, September 23rd, 2020
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The Tampa Bay Lightning were able to even up the series against the Dallas Stars.
They didn’t have Stamkos return – no surprise – however it wasn’t necessary as they burst into a 3 goal lead in the 1st period and the Stars couldn’t come back from that.
Tampa were tied 1-1 against the Jackets and ran out 4-1 winners and 1-1 against the Bruins and ran out 4-1 winners so with that trend there, that will give them confidence.
The Stars were tied 1-1 with the Knights in similar circumstances and were able to win the next game in OT before taking the series 4-1.
The Dallas Stars continue to be disrespected by the sportsbooks. While they aren’t as big underdogs as Game 1, they’re still about 2.35 to 2.40. The over/under is 5 goals.
Stars vs Lightning Game 3 Betting Tips:
Graeme: Unless I have a strong reason I think I am done with betting on individual game winners. There’s just no real edge. I took Tampa in Game 2 simply because of everything I wrote – that they had bounced back every other time and strongly felt they would again. They were able to do so.
The only time I will probably place a bet is when Stamkos returns – if he returns – and I will bet the Dallas Stars to win. I don’t have the actual data to back it up but it just seems more often than not when that returning star comes back after a layoff – there’s all this excitement and hope and it doesn’t pan out.
Game 2 and the Stars inability to get the shots in that 3rd period was interesting with only two shots on target in the final 15 minutes of the game. As soon as they got that 2nd goal they were shut down. Dallas will be scared to give up penalties now the Tampa PP seems to be warming up.
I think we see a nice tight one here and based on games so far, I think game to go to overtime has value.
Canada: 4.00 Odds at Mr. Green
USA: +280 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 4.00 Odds at Mr. Green
(Odds correct as of 2020/09/23 8:49:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Scott: The Stars made a push but came up short.
The Lightning found a way to get pucks past Khudobin and that was for them to put bodies in front of him limiting his vision. They scored 3 goals in about 4 minutes in the 1st period, 2 of which were on the powerplay.
The Stars continued to throw the body but the Lightning did the same.
With the Lightning getting back on track with a win I have to think momentum will carry over into game 3. But the odds aren’t great so instead I’ll go with a player prop for this game.
Kucherov had 5 shots in game 1 and had 6 more in game 2. I’ll follow that as he is a huge piece of the Lightning and their high powered offense. For the Lightning to win this crucial game 3 they will need him firing away
The problem is 888 Sports. is the only sportsbook up right now and they have Over 2.5 shots but it’s at 1.40 odds. I’ll update this if I see over 3.5 elsewhere so we can bet it for value. We just want to get the tips up early so people can read and discuss.
